The 92nd annual Academy Awards are Sunday night in Los Angeles.
So which movies will walk away with Hollywood’s biggest prize?
Here are my predictions for both the favorites and the potential spoilers:
Best Picture
Nominees: “1917,” “Ford v. Ferrari,” “The Irishman,” “Joker,” “Jojo Rabbit,” “Little Women,” “Marriage Story,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” “Parasite”
Prediction: “1917”
Spoiler: “Parasite”
“Parasite” topped my list of the Best Movies of 2019 and recently made history as the first foreign-language film ever to win Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards.
However, SAG only predicts the Best Picture Oscar less than half of the time, including last year, when SAG champ “Black Panther” ultimately lost the Oscar to “Green Book” (2018).
Could this be the first year the Oscars crown a foreign-language film? I would be delighted, but Hollywood loves to vote for movies about itself, making “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” a real contender after winning Best Picture (Comedy) at the Golden Globes.
It’s also one of those throwback films by an assured filmmaker with plenty of classic movie references and vintage Hollywood locales that industry insiders eat up.
Still, my pick is the World War I flick “1917,” which won the top prize at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Directors Guild Awards and most importantly the Producers Guild Awards.
It’s a movie that demands to be seen on the big screen, which old-school voters (i.e. Spielberg) prefer over streaming content like Netflix’s “The Irishman.”
Best Director
Nominees: Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”), Sam Mendes (“1917”), Martin Scorsese (“The Irishman”), Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”), Todd Phillips (“Joker”)
Prediction: Sam Mendes (“1917”)
Spoiler: Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”)
This category was once again criticized for being a boy’s club, snubbing the likes of Greta Gerwig (“Little Women”), Kasi Lemmons (“Harriet”), Melina Matsoukas (“Queen and Slim”) and Marielle Heller (“It’s a Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”).
Instead, nominations went to living legends like Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”) and Martin Scorsese (“The Irishman”), whose reputations precede them.
Scorsese’s influence also led to a first-time directing nomination for Todd Phillips, who stretched beyond comedies like “The Hangover” (2009) to do his best “Taxi Driver” and “King of Comedy” impression in “Joker.”
Also receiving his first directing nod is Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”), who is long overdue after such gems as “The Host” (2006) and “Snowpiercer” (2013).
Still, this is almost certainly the year of Sam Mendes (“1917”), who won Best Director at the Golden Globes and Directors Guild Awards for his immersive World War I film shot to look like one long single take, which paid dividends for “Birdman” (2014).
Expect Mendes to win his second Best Director Oscar after “American Beauty” (1999).
Best Actor
Nominees: Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”), Antonio Banderas (“Pain & Glory”), Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”), Jonathan Pryce (“The Two Popes”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
Prediction: Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”)
Spoiler: Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”)
In any other year, this might be Adam Driver’s moment for his nuanced portrayal of a divorcing father with violent outbursts in “Marriage Story.”
Alas, it’s Joaquin Phoenix’s turn to finally win after prior nominations for “Gladiator” (2000), “Walk the Line” (2005) and “The Master” (2012), not to mention his acclaimed sci-fi romance in “Her” (2013).
Love it or hate it, “Joker” is unforgettable. Even detractors must admit that Phoenix was arresting as Arthur Fleck, losing weight for an emaciated body and turning his uncontrollable laughter into a medical condition rather than an over-the-top cartoon.
After a rambling acceptance speech at the Golden Globes, Phoenix nailed it at the SAG Awards with the most gracious speech of the entire night, highlighting his fellow nominees and dedicating the win to his late predecessor Heath Ledger.
Expect “Joker” to do for Phoenix what “The Dark Knight” (2008) did posthumously for Ledger, marking a second Oscar for the Joker character, which says more about our violent society than we’d like to admit.
Best Actress
Nominees: Charlize Theron (“Bombshell”), Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet”), Renee Zellweger (“Judy”), Saoirse Ronan (“Little Women”), Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story”)
Prediction: Renee Zellweger (“Judy”)
Spoiler: Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story”)
Cynthia Erivo inspired as Harriet Tubman in “Harriet,” Charlize Theron transformed into Megyn Kelly in “Bombshell,” Saoirse Ronan anchored a timeless tale in “Little Women,” and Scarlett Johansson stood her ground in divorce court in “Marriage Story.”
However, this entire award season has been all about Renee Zellweger, who has proven unstoppable with wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs and SAG Awards for her performance as an aging Judy Garland in the final tragic weeks of her life in “Judy.”
Not only was it a sympathetic portrait of a beloved Hollywood figure, voters love the comeback story of Zellweger, who won Best Supporting Actress 16 years ago for “Cold Mountain” (2003) only to disappear from the public eye with tabloid ridicule.
Expect Zellweger to win her first Oscar for Best Actress, completing the comeback fairy tale.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Anthony Hopkins (“The Two Popes”), Al Pacino (“The Irishman”), Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”), Joe Pesci (“The Irishman”), Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”)
Prediction: Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
Spoiler: Al Pacino (“The Irishman”)
Supporting Actor is the deepest category with a collection of living legends.
Joe Pesci hasn’t been nominated in the 29 years since “Goodfellas” (1990), Al Pacino hasn’t been nominated in the 27 years since “Scent of a Woman” (1992), Anthony Hopkins hasn’t been nominated in the 22 years since “Amistad” (1997), and Tom Hanks hasn’t been nominated in the 19 years since “Cast Away” (2000).
And yet, this year’s prize is a lock for Brad Pitt, who previously won a producing Oscar for “12 Years a Slave” (2013) but has never won for acting.
This will be a “career Oscar” for his body of work of “Thelma & Louise” (1991), “Se7en” (1995), “Fight Club” (1999), “Ocean’s Eleven” (2001), “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (2008), “Inglourious Basterds” (2009), “Moneyball” (2011) and “The Tree of Life” (2011).
His handsome charisma was on perfect display as a Hollywood stuntman in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” while his award season charm has delivered hilarious zingers in acceptance speeches at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs and SAG Awards.
If anyone embodies the word “movie star” today, it’s Brad Pitt. Polish that Oscar, sir.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Florence Pugh (“Little Women”), Kathy Bates (“Richard Jewell”), Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”), Margot Robbie (“Bombshell”), Scarlett Johansson (“Jojo Rabbit”)
Prediction: Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”)
Spoiler: Scarlett Johansson (“Jojo Rabbit”)
Florence Pugh stole the show as the perfectly annoying sister in “Little Women,” Kathy Bates was a reliable casting choice for “Richard Jewell,” Margot Robbie got more lines than Tarantino’s Sharon Tate thanks to the #MeToo movie “Bombshell,” and Scarlett Johansson was both endearing and heartbreaking as the mother in “Jojo Rabbit.”
Still, there’s little chance for a spoiler.
This category has been a lock for Laura Dern since Day One for her sassy divorce lawyer in “Marriage Story,” defending Johansson in a child custody battle and delivering the best monologue of the year about double standards between mothers and fathers in a supposedly evolved society.
Expect Dern to finally win her first ever Oscar after memorable turns in “Blue Velvet” (1986), “Jurassic Park” (1993) and “Big Little Lies” (2017).
Her father, Bruce Dern, never won an Oscar despite two nominations. Neither did her mother, Diane Ladd, despite three nominations. Dern will finally break that family streak — and it’s long overdue.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Bong Joon-ho and Han Ji-won (“Parasite”), Noah Baumbach (“Marriage Story”), Rian Johnson (“Knives Out”), Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns (“1917”), Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
Prediction: Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”)
Spoiler: Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
This category is a bit tricky to predict. Rian Johnson provided a unique twist on the whodunit genre in “Knives Out,” Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns laid the groundwork for a single-take experiment in “1917,” and Noah Baumbach poured his personal life onto the page in “Marriage Story,” which voters may want to honor as a combo with his real-life lover Greta Gerwig vying for Best Adapted Screenplay.
Far more likely is “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” by Quentin Tarantino, who won this category twice before for “Pulp Fiction” (1994) and “Django: Unchained” (2012).
He became the early favorite again by winning Best Screenplay at the Globes, but his acceptance speech came off as selfish. More recently, he was ineligible at the Writers Guild Awards because he’s not a member of the guild, allowing “Parasite” to win.
In my book, no script was more original this year than “Parasite.” The South Korean thriller not only kept us guessing, but it was also layered with social commentary of class divides that couldn’t be more timely.
Keep a close eye on this category, as a “Parasite” screenplay win could foreshadow an Oscar upset for Best Picture. If Tarantino’s script wins instead, it could spell a snowball effect for a self-congratulatory Hollywood.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Greta Gerwig (“Little Women”), Taika Waititi (“Jojo Rabbit”), Steve Zaillian (“The Irishman”), Anthony McCarten (“The Two Popes”), Todd Phillips and Scott Silver (“Joker”)
Prediction: Taika Waititi (“Jojo Rabbit”)
Spoiler: Greta Gerwig (“Little Women”)
After years of formulaic superhero flicks, Todd Phillips and Scott Silver delivered a gritty origin story in “Joker,” Steve Zaillian won for “Schindler’s List” (1993) before adapting the novel “I Heard You Paint Houses” into “The Irishman,” and Anthony McCarten’s “The Two Popes” continued his run of acclaimed biopics after “The Theory of Everything” (2014), “Darkest Hour” (2017) and “Bohemian Rhapsody” (2018).
Despite stiff competition, Greta Gerwig’s “Little Women” has long seemed like the likely pick to win Best Adapted Screenplay, as Gerwig turned Louisa May Alcott’s beloved classic novel into a refreshingly feminist take.
Voters may very well give Gerwig a script Oscar as a consolation prize for her Best Director snub, not to mention her going home empty-handed last time despite five nominations for “Lady Bird” (2017).
Still, I’m feeling a late surge for “Jojo Rabbit” after it won Best Adapted Screenplay at the Writers Guild Awards last weekend.
Taika Waititi stood out in the Marvel Universe for his sparkling script for “Thor: Ragnarok” (2017) and now adapts Christine Leunens’ novel into a clever dark comedy about a German boy in the Hitler Youth who befriends a Jewish girl hiding in his home like Anne Frank.
It’s just unique enough for the win.
How will these predictions turn out? Follow my live tweets @JFrayWTOP. I’ll also be doing a live Instagram takeover @wtopnews. Enjoy the Oscars!
