Analysis: How voters shifted in Maryland and Virginia

Republican Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States on Wednesday, outperforming his results in the 2020 election, while Democrat Kamala Harris failed to do as well as President Joe Biden did in winning the presidency four years ago.

Voting trends that were seen nationally also appeared in Maryland and Virginia.

“A lot of polls had Kamala Harris winning by eight or 10 points, but she won by five,” said Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth, while discussing the polling and election results in the Commonwealth.

Five points is the margin that Hillary Rodham Clinton carried Virginia by in 2016, which was five points below President Biden’s margin in his 2020 victory in Virginia.

There were two close races involving U.S. House seats controlled by Democrats in the 7th and 10th Congressional Districts.

“What was interesting in both the races was in almost every jurisdiction in those two districts, there was a shift of one or two points to the right,” Holsworth said. “We saw this almost uniform pattern of jurisdictions moving a little bit more toward the Republican direction than they had previously in Virginia, and that really was the story of the nation.”

In the 7th Congressional District, which is being vacated by Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, Democrat Eugene Vindman declared victory over Republican Derrick Anderson with about a two-point lead.

The Associated Press declared Vindman the winner on Wednesday evening, nearly 24 hours after polls closed.

In the 10th Congressional District, which Democrat Rep. Jennifer Wexton is leaving due to severe health challenges, Democratic Del. Suhas Subramanyam defeated his Republican opponent, Mike Clancy, by about four points.

“What you saw in the election was that in Northern Virginia and in the big suburbs around Richmond — particularly Henrico and Chesterfield counties — the Democrats did quite well,” Holsworth said. “What you also saw was the complete collapse of the Democrats in rural Virginia.”

Trends in neighboring Maryland

Similar patterns emerged in Maryland, even though registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by a 2:1 ratio.

“It’s a safely Democratic state, but the national trend of the shift toward Republicans is something we see in Maryland as well,” said Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland.

Trump improved his vote share in Maryland, and Harris pulled in less than Biden did four years ago.

Eberly said the divide between urban and rural Americans was on full display.

“The education divide between those with a college degree and those without is growing, and you see it playing out in Maryland,” Eberly said. “You have these seas of red in the east and in the west, and then you have all of this blue along the urban and suburban I-95 corridor, which also happens to be where most of the folks with college degrees are concentrated.”

Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan lost to Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in the race for Maryland’s open U.S. Senate seat.

Still, Eberly noted, “Larry Hogan looks like he’s going to have probably the best performance for a Republican Senate candidate in 20 years.”

In Maryland’s 6th Congressional District, which is being vacated by Democratic Rep. David Trone, Democrat April McClain Delaney has a very slim lead over Republican Neil Parrott.

As of Wednesday night, the race had not been called by The Associated Press.

“In that district, Democrats should have done better,” Eberly said. “That is a district that is most competitive in off-year elections, but it’s looking pretty darn competitive in a presidential election.”

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