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Maryland’s U.S. Senate race has taken up a lot of political oxygen, but the 6th Congressional District race between Democrat April McClain Delaney and Republican Neil Parrott may be the most competitive race in the state.
The sprawling district has been represented by Democratic Rep. David Trone since 2018, but he left the seat open when he decided to run for the U.S. Senate.
Trone lost the Democratic nomination for the Senate to Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, who is now running against Republican candidate, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan.
Trone was twice defeated Parrott, but the Republican gained a lot of name recognition, even though he fell short in getting elected to the U.S. House.
Now, Parrott is mounting a serious challenge to Delaney, the wife of former Rep. John Delaney, who ran for president in 2020.
Changes to the 6th District could alter election results
The 6th District, for many years, was reliably Democratic in a state where about two-thirds of registered voters are Democrats.
After a legal battle related to gerrymandering in 2022, Hogan signed a redrawn district into law that included all of Republican-friendly Frederick County and a bit less of heavily Democratic Montgomery County.
The changes are clearly having an impact on the current race.
Ian Anson, a political scientist at the University of Maryland Baltimore County, said Democrats still have an advantage in the district, but it has been diluted.
“Even though it’s maybe like a 7% edge for Democrats … on that balance of voter registration, from the polling that we’ve seen … it does look like a pretty tight race,” Anson said.
McClain Delaney’s political power base is in Montgomery County and she has donated more than $2 million to her campaign. However, polling indicates the race remains close and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently included her race in its red-to-blue program.
Parrott has support of House conservatives
While Parrott has trailed McClain Delaney in campaign fundraising, he has benefited from his years as a state lawmaker and his previous runs for Congress.
A poll released last month from Gonzales Research & Media Services suggested Parrott had a slight lead over his Democratic opponent, though it was within the margin of error.
Some Democrats have been surprised at the strength of Parrott’s campaign since he has fallen short in past contests.
Anson said it appears the race could go down to the proverbial wire.
“I think that both candidates have a pretty decent amount of cash on-hand left, and these last few weeks, I think are going to be very determinative in terms of the campaign appeal,” he said. “Especially in terms of that spending and the kinds of messaging that can be put out to the district.”
Parrott is backed by the House Freedom Caucus, a conservative wing of the GOP.
The caucus is now led by Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., who has contributed to Parrott’s campaign.
The chair of the House Judiciary Committee, Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Oh., has also recently endorsed Parrott.
Hogan still facing uphill odds
The stakes are much higher for the Maryland U.S. Senate race, but like Parrott, former Gov. Hogan has been running a solid campaign.
Hogan overcame the political odds to become a Republican governor in a state that’s overwhelmingly blue. He’s tried to translate that political success to his candidacy for the U.S. Senate, in his race against Alsobrooks.
Ironically, Hogan’s father Larry Hogan Sr. was at one time the Prince George’s County Executive, serving in the position after he had been in Congress.
The former governor started out strongly, and early polls indicated he led Alsobrooks, who had little statewide recognition.
But that has changed, with Alsobrooks now leading in the most recent polls.
Anson, noting that in-person voting starts this Thursday, said time is running out for Hogan to close the gap.
“I think that if the Hogan campaign can close strong, blasting the airwaves the way they have, using that cash advantage to their own advantage … is pretty much the only way they can close that gap at the present moment,” he said.
Whatever happens, the race is the most competitive U.S. Senate contest in decades. It is also expected to be the most expensive U.S. Senate race in Maryland’s history.
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