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A new poll finds Maryland residents roughly split on how officials should resolve a budget shortfall, and highlights growing pessimism about the rebuilding of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.
The poll released Wednesday by the Institute of Politics at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County suggests the governor and legislature “shouldn’t lead with tax cuts” as they cope with a projected $1.5 billion budget shortfall in the 2026 legislative session, said Mileah Kromer, director of the survey.
By and large, those surveyed said they wanted to see cuts to government spending — at least to some degree. Four in 10 said they wanted a solution that combined spending cuts with increases in taxes and fees. Another 41% said the budget gap should be closed “only or mostly” with spending cuts.
Only 10% of those surveyed said the hole should be filled “only or mostly with increasing taxes and fees.”
“Marylanders don’t want the budget deficit fixed or addressed only through some taxes and fees, that is what they don’t want now,” Kromer said. “Now, how it breaks down — the only, or mostly, with spending cuts, or the combination of spending cuts with increases — I think that is very much up for debate between most Marylanders.”
The poll surveyed 801 Maryland adults, including 769 registered voters, from Dec. 2-6. The margin of error for both pools of respondents is plus or minus 3.5%.
Part one of the university survey gauged support for midcycle congressional redistricting.
The state’s looming budget problem comes on heels of a $3.3 billion structural deficit in the last legislative session, when Gov. Wes Moore (D) and lawmakers agreed to a budget that used one-time transfers, some budget cuts and $1.6 billion in tax and fee increases to close that gap.
The session ended with analysts projecting a $300 million surplus.
Now, the governor and key lawmakers say taxes are off the table as a solution this year — the last session before the 2026 elections.
Optimism over bridge rebuild fades
Marylanders in the poll are also expressing fading optimism that the Frances Scott Key Bridge can be quickly replaced.
The bridge collapsed into the Patapsco River in March 2024 after it was stuck by the container ship Dali. Six road maintenance workers who were on the span at the time were killed in the early morning crash.
Nearly two years later, more than seven in 10 of those surveyed think the loss of the bridge has had a “great deal” or “some” impact on life in the Baltimore area. Just 12% said it had no impact.
That is a sharp change from the days immediately following the incident: In a poll one week after the collapse of the bridge, just 21% of those asked said it would have a great deal of impact on life in the area, while nearly 40% said it would have no effect at all.
And those surveyed in the current UMBC poll are skeptical that a fix is coming soon. A quarter said they believe the bridge will be rebuilt in less than five years, while 54% said they believe it will take five to 10 years. Another 12% said they expected a replacement between 11 and 20 years, and 3% said the bridge would take 20 years or longer to rebuild.
In the days after the collapse, Moore vowed that the bridge would be rebuilt by 2028. Preliminary replacement costs were estimated at $1.7. At the time, President Joe Biden (D) vowed the costs would be covered by the federal government.
But President Donald Trump (R) and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy have cast doubt on federal reimbursement, and that was before the state acknowledged the cost of a replacement is now between $4.3 and $5.2 billion. A replacement is unlikely to open before 2030, according to new state estimates.
“Folks are reacting to the most recent tranche of news about this,” Kromer said. “None of the reporting has been good. None of the reporting suggests a quick timeline at this point. I would say the public has set their expectations. It doesn’t look like they’re tremendously optimistic for a quick turnaround.”
