Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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A potential Super Bowl preview and the battle for Pennsylvania bragging rights highlight the NFL’s Week 15 schedule.
The NFC-leading Detroit Lions (12-1) put their 11-game winning streak on the line when they host the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills (10-3) on Sunday.
Intrastate and interconference rivals meet when the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) visit the Philadelphia Eagles (11-2).
Those two games feature four of the league’s six teams with double-digit wins through 14 weeks. Week 15 kicked off with the Los Angeles Rams defeating the San Francisco 49ers 12-6 on Thursday night.
Pro Picks selects a full slate of games as the NFL has completed the bye portion of its schedule for the remainder of the regular season.
Tampa Bay (7-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
Line: Chargers minus 3
The banged-up Buccaneers beat three last-place teams in a row to move into first place in the NFC South. They’re going to need to rely on Baker Mayfield and the offense with several injuries to key players on defense. But Mayfield has to protect the ball better. Justin Herbert and the Chargers came close against Kansas City, but lost another game by three points or fewer. Los Angeles is giving up a league-low 15.9 points per game.
BEST BET: CHARGERS: 23-17
Buffalo (10-3) at Detroit (12-1)
Line: Lions minus 2 1/2
Josh Allen threw three touchdown passes and ran for three scores and the Bills still lost last week, a big blow to their hopes of securing the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Lions can’t afford to lose because the Vikings and Eagles are right behind them in the race for the NFC’s top spot. Three of Detroit’s past five wins have been by three points. The Lions have a depleted defense that could be exploited by Allen.
UPSET SPECIAL: BILLS: 30-27
Kansas City (12-1) at Cleveland (3-10)
Line: Chiefs minus 4
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs keep winning games in the final minute. They are 0-7 against the spread in the past seven games overall. Kansas City is the superior team, but the Browns have played better than their record. Jameis Winston has made them a formidable opponent. This could be the week the Chiefs don’t have to sweat it out, though.
CHIEFS: 24-18
Cincinnati (5-8) at Tennessee (3-10)
Line: Bengals minus 5
Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are playing great football. It’s too bad they won’t be playing important games in January. The Titans have struggled to score points, but their defense often keeps things close. It helps Tennessee that Cincinnati is coming off a short week after a road win Monday night in Dallas.
BENGALS: 24-16
Washington (8-5) at New Orleans (5-8)
Line: Commanders minus 7 1/2
Jayden Daniels and the offense got back on track before taking a bye. The Commanders are holding onto the final wild-card spot and can’t overlook the Saints with tough games upcoming. The Saints are clinging to slim playoff hopes and Derek Carr is hurt again.
COMMANDERS: 23-17
Baltimore (8-5) at New York Giants (2-11)
Line: Ravens minus 16
The Ravens are coming off a bye after losing to Philadelphia and Justin Tucker’s kicking is one of the team’s biggest areas of concern. It won’t come down to a field goal against the woeful Giants, who turn back to Tommy DeVito.
RAVENS: 33-13
Dallas (5-8) at Carolina (3-10)
Line: Panthers minus 3
Bryce Young nearly led the Panthers to an upset of the Eagles if not for a dropped pass. Carolina came close against the Chiefs and Buccaneers, too. Now, they’re favorites against the Cowboys, whose slim playoff hopes took a big hit with a loss to the Bengals. The Panthers look ready to close to the deal.
PANTHERS: 22-20
New York Jets (3-10) at Jacksonville (3-10)
Line: Jets minus 3 1/2
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are favorites in a matchup of two teams that have failed miserably to live up to high expectations. Mac Jones makes another start for the injured Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars seek their first two-game winning streak of the season.
JETS: 23-16
Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Line: Texans minus 3
Tua Tagovailoa has been outstanding since returning from a concussion and the Dolphins have to keep winning to stay in playoff contention. The Texans are coming off a much-needed bye hoping key players got healthy. Giving the ball to Joe Mixon has helped Houston’s offense get going with the offensive line having issues protecting C.J. Stroud.
TEXANS: 24-23
Indianapolis (6-7) at Denver (8-5)
Line: Broncos minus 4
Bo Nix and the Broncos have a three-game winning streak that’s put them in position to earn a wild-card berth. The Colts need a victory to have any playoff shot. Both teams had an extra week to prepare after a bye. Denver is 6-0 ATS as a favorite this season and an NFL-best 10-3 ATS overall this season.
BRONCOS: 24-18
Pittsburgh (10-3) at Philadelphia (11-2)
Line: Eagles minus 5
There’s drama in Philly despite nine straight wins. Everything will be fine if Jalen Hurts throws a few more passes to A.J. Brown this week and the passing game steps up. The Steelers are No. 4 against the run so Saquon Barkley’s quest to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record could hit a detour. But Pittsburgh is 17th vs. the pass so there’s an opportunity for Hurts and Brown to get in sync. Russell Wilson is 6-1 since taking over as the starter, but the Steelers have a tough stretch coming against the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs.
EAGLES: 22-20
New England (3-10) at Arizona (6-7)
Line: Cardinals minus 6
A three-game losing streak has knocked the Cardinals out of a playoff position. The lowly Patriots should be a welcome opponent for Kyler Murray and Co. New England has kept it close in several games, going 2-5 in one-score games.
CARDINALS: 24-16
Green Bay (9-4) at Seattle (8-5)
Line: Packers minus 3
The streaky Seahawks have won four straight to take over first place in the NFC West after losing four of five. Zach Charbonnet had a career game last week to balance an offense that relies on Geno Smith’s arm. The good news for the Packers is they’re playing a non-division opponent. Green Bay is 1-3 against the NFC North and 8-1 vs. everyone else. This could be a potential playoff preview because the Packers are going to go the wild-card route.
PACKERS: 27-20
Chicago (4-9) at Minnesota (11-2)
Line: Vikings minus 7
Sam Darnold is having an excellent season and the Vikings have won six in a row to stay hot on Detroit’s trail in the NFC North and for the No. 1 seed. The Bears fired their coach after three losses by a field goal or less. Then they were blown out at home by the 49ers and are 0-6 on the road.
VIKINGS: 26-16
Atlanta (6-7) at Las Vegas (2-11)
Line: Falcons minus 4
Kirk Cousins is struggling and the Falcons have lost four in a row to fall behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South. But the schedule gets easier with three of the final four games against teams that are 7-22. The Raiders should be playing for the No. 1 pick in the draft.
FALCONS: 26-19
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Last week: Straight up: 9-4. Against spread: 6-6-1.
Overall: Straight up: 143-75. Against spread: 111-94-3.
Prime-time: Straight up: 34-12. Against spread: 24-21-1.
Best Bet: Straight up: 9-5. Against spread: 8-6.
Upset Special: Straight up: 7-7. Against spread: 7-7.
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