WASHINGTON — By the time the Toronto Raptors had finished deconstructing the Washington Wizards last Tuesday night to take a 2-0 lead in their first-round series, the only question seemed to be on precisely what date the Wizards would be cleaning out their lockers. The box score was a bloodbath. Led by 37 from DeMar DeRozan, Toronto poured 130 points on Washington’s defense. Bradley Beal, somehow, was -34 in less than 25 minutes on the floor.
But a week later, the landscape looks entirely different. Thanks to hot shooting in Game 3, Beal and John Wall each poured in 28 points as the Wizards pushed the Raptors around. In Game 4, a 66-point second half keyed a late comeback, even with Beal fouled out. Now the series is tied and Washington seems to have found a rhythm while the Raptors have withered, especially late, shooting just 36 percent in the fourth quarter (8/21, then 8/23) in the two games in D.C.
Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers are giving the Cleveland Cavaliers a stout first-round challenge, and could well dispatch LeBron and company if the Cavs’ supporting cast continues to struggle to knock down open shots. The Bucks and the depleted Celtics are in a dogfight. The upstart 76ers are the only team to already advance; the Wizards have beaten Philly twice this year. There isn’t a single dominant team, or even a discernible favorite to advance out of any of these remaining series, much less represent the East in the NBA Finals.
All of which is to say that, with a pivotal Game 5 looming in Toronto Wednesday night, it’s all right there in front of the Wizards. If they can win, they’ll have the chance to follow the Washington Capitals’ lead and take four straight after falling behind 0-2. They won’t even have to go on the road again to do so. But, to be clear — if they lose Game 5, it will all be for naught. They’re not coming back again, not winning a road Game 7 (more on that in a moment). Fair or not, a season of high expectations will come crashing down. There’s a good argument to be made that Game 5 the single most important game in the John Wall era.
A loss would put Washington on the brink, needing to win both Game 6 at home and Game 7 in Toronto. The Wizards haven’t won a road Game 7 since their 105-99 championship-sealing victory in Seattle 40 years ago. They haven’t had many chances since then, though they lost Game 7 at Boston last year. Over the past 10 seasons, road teams are just 7-24 in Games 7. Given that the Wizards — by default, if they lose Game 5 — would have lost all three contests in Toronto in the series thus far heading into Game 7, there’s not much reason to be optimistic that they’d pull it off. That makes Wednesday night’s game, riding emotion and better play, paramount.
It’s an often espoused and widely accepted adage that the team with the best player in an NBA playoff series has an advantage. The thing is, in a series in which both teams sport a pair of All-Star guards, it’s not entirely clear who that player is. Any murmurs that suggest the best backcourt in the NBA resides anywhere other than Oakland should stay under people’s breaths, but Washington and Toronto can each lay claim to elite units. Which one shines the brightest and asserts itself over the final games of the series will likely determine the outcome.
The starting backcourt that has totaled the most points has won three of the four games this series — Wall and Beal outscored their counterparts in Game 1 but still lost, in part due to 23 points from Serge Ibaka and 18 from Delon Wright off the bench. Oddly enough, the Tomas Satoransky experiment that yielded such positive results early in Wall’s injury-provoked absence has been nearly entirely abandoned. If Washington advances, there may be a future opponent against whom he plays a key role, but after playing 12 and 15 minutes in the two losses, Sato’s seen fewer than six minutes of floor time in the two wins. It’s been all about Wall and Beal.
As much as we like to talk about what the Wizards are or aren’t doing, what’s happening with the Raptors is just as important. Toronto has a history of underperforming in the playoffs, and the pressure will surely be on them not to get pushed to the brink. But the Raps are also a bit thin — Fred Van Vleet has missed the whole series, and OG Anunoby is hobbled from an ankle injury suffered in the second quarter of Game 4, not at 100 percent. In contrast, Washington’s as healthy as could be reasonably expected, with even Wall appearing to be close to, if not at, full strength despite his own ankle issues the last couple games.
At this point, the seeds don’t matter. The Wizards have given themselves a chance to take a stranglehold on this series with a win. If they can advance, they’ll be staring at a wide open Eastern Conference Semifinal field. But any of those dreams begin — or end — with Game 5 Wednesday night.
