WASHINGTON — The Wizards don’t need any reminder that their season is on the brink.
Despite a trip to the Eastern Conference Semifinals last year and an offseason commitment to a more open, spread offense this year, Washington failed to build upon its gains all season long. Myriad injuries kept the full squad from being on the court at the same time for much of the season, but even then, to be 36-38, three games out of the last playoff spot with eight games to play, is a massive disappointment.
A couple weeks ago, the Wizards appeared dead and buried, following a woeful five-game losing streak that left them 30-35 with just 17 games to play. But suddenly, and as if out of thin air, the team made a defensive adjustment and reeled off five straight wins in which they allowed 18.4 fewer points per game than they had during their losing streak.
Randy Wittman chalked the difference up to a simple shift in the way the team defends the pick-and-roll, bringing in more weakside help and clogging the lane, rather than leaving point guard John Wall and whichever big man happened to be on the floor to their own devices trying to defend mismatches in a two-man game. This employs similar mechanics to those in Virginia’s pack-line defense, squeezing entry into the paint and relying on your athletes on the wings to close out three-point shooters.
It’s hard to argue with the results achieved in the first four games of the streak, when opponents shot under 40 percent combined overall from the floor, and a shade under 26 percent from three-point range. But in the last two losses, Washington has allowed better than 53 percent shooting from both opponents, each of which are middle-of-the-pack in terms of both points per game and offensive rating.
It’s notable that Alan Anderson hasn’t played the last five games after finally coming off the disabled list and playing nine solid games. Anderson averaged 15 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists per 36 minutes (albeit playing just under 15 minutes a night) a +6 and a 120 offensive rating before being sidelined once again, with Washington going 5-4 in those games.
Bradley Beal has started just 28 games and made just 44 appearances all season, leaving Sunday’s win in LA with a minor leg injury. Trade deadline acquisition Markieff Morris missed that game with a calf injury. But both were back on the floor Tuesday night as the Wizards became the Golden State Warriors’ 54th straight regular season victim at Oracle Arena.
The Wizards suffocated the Warriors early, forcing bad shots, building a nine-point lead late in the first half with Marcin Gortat heading to the line with a chance to make it 10. And before you could blink, the Warriors ripped off a 12-0 torrent to close the half and take the lead into the locker room. The Warriors would never trail again.
But that loss was almost inevitable. The loss to Minnesota last week, in which Washington squandered a late lead and had the ball both at the end of regulation and the first overtime in a tie game with the chance to win, may ultimately stand out as the backbreaking straw in a season packed with disappointing hay bales.
According to ESPN’s BPI Playoff Odds projector, Washington’s chance of making the second season was just 12.7 percent before Tuesday night’s loss in Oakland. Basketball Reference pegged them at just 8.6 percent, with both numbers going down by Wednesday morning.
The Wizards will be heavy underdogs against the Clippers in LA at the end of their road trip, but should pose a decent threat to win each of their seven other remaining games, with only one — the regular season finale against Atlanta — coming against a top-six team in either conference.
Indiana, now the eight seed, seems safely in barring a total collapse, considering the Pacers play non-playoff teams Orlando, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Milwaukee and the New York Knicks twice in their final eight games.
Detroit’s road, however, is much more fraught. Following Tuesday’s home win over a Kevin Durant-less Oklahoma City, they face only one certain non-playoff team (at Orlando April 6) the rest of the way, playing at Chicago, at Cleveland and drawing the Heat both home and away.
And, of course, the Pistons and Wizards square off in Detroit on Friday, April 8. If the Wizards could gain two games back over the four that each team plays between now and then, they could add immense pressure to that final game, especially since they’ve beaten the Pistons each of the three times the teams have played this season, including a 41-point thrashing on March 14 that began their recent five-game run.
If the Wizards do find a way to sneak in, they’d almost certainly draw the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round. While that might seem like bad news, the Wizards and Cavs split their four-game season series, and Cleveland has scuffled down the stretch. And if Washington does find a way in, they’ll have to already be playing some of their best basketball of the season.
To do that, the Wizards need to rediscover the defensive intensity and efficiency that led to the success during their winning streak. They’ll need to win at least two of the remaining games on their current west coast swing.
There can’t be any more excuses, because there’s just no more room to make any.
