WASHINGTON — No team sport can swing as dramatically as basketball on a single injury to one key player. Remove the best player from any of the remaining eight NBA playoff teams and they become instant underdogs.
For two breath-holding, body-clenching moments on Sunday afternoon, it appeared the Washington Wizards might be without the service of each of their young, star guards. While immediate crisis was averted, the ability for both John Wall and Bradley Beal to remain effective and healthy contributors is key for the Wizards’ season to continue.
Sure, the Wizards scored a 104-98 victory, and reversed a trend they have battled all season, playing better at the end of the game than at the beginning. But it was only the first battle, and only the first time they’ve beaten the actual Hawks, given that Atlanta rested all its starters in the lone Washington victory during the regular season series.
“All it is is one win,” said head coach Randy Wittman following the win. “Tuesday’s going to be harder than this game. We’re going to have to play better than we did tonight to have a chance on Tuesday.”
That may sound like a coaching platitude aimed more toward Wittman’s own players than anything else, but it also happens to be true.
Washington began the series with two notable health advantages — they had no major injuries to any impact rotation player, and they were well-rested after six days off following a four-game sweep of Toronto. The Hawks, on the other hand, lost key reserve Thabo Sefolosha to a broken leg in a grotesque, off-the-court incident a couple weeks before the playoffs, and had less than 48 hours to rebound after putting the New Jersey Nets away in Game 6 of their first round series Friday night.
Those advantages came clearly into focus in the second half of Game 1, when Atlanta settled for outside shots late, missing most of them. The Hawks shot just 18 percent (5-for-28) from the floor in the fourth quarter, missing all but one of their 10 three-point attempts. Their field goal totals dropped each quarter, from 14 to 10 to 8 to 5 while their shooting percentage plummeted alongside (64, 42, 33, 18).
Both Wall and Beal say they’ll be ready to go for Game 2, which is certainly a good sign. Beal and Wall have been Washington’s top playoff scorers, averaging 22.2 and 17.4 points per game, respectively. Assuming they are both good to go Tuesday night, it’s worth looking at how they might be slowed down and their games affected, given the two very different injuries.
Wall’s wrist (or hand — “It’s more my hand, the pressure went to my hand,” he told reporters) injury is the lesser of the two evils. Where a right wrist injury would affect both his passing and his shooting, he should be able to hide this ailment to limited effect, provided that he doesn’t aggravate it further.
Beal’s ankle sprain is more problematic. On offense, he needs his left ankle as a plant to begin a drive to his right, dominant hand. He also needs it as his back foot to balance on a jumpshot. Defensively, it will take a beating as he is chasing either Kyle Korver or DeMarre Carroll around the three-point arc. His lateral mobility will likely be tested on drives to the basket as well.
Conventional wisdom suggests that Wall, who led the team with a 19.9 PER during the regular season would be the bigger loss. But Beal was actually +8 over his 40 minutes of play in Game 1, while Wall was -6. This is an interesting development. The two often play together, so that statistic is hard to determine in many games (Wall was +48 in the Raptors series, Beal +42).
But that speaks more to Beal’s impact when he has a particularly good game, like he did Sunday, when he scored a game high 28 points and snagged seven boards. Wall leads the entire NBA in assists this postseason with 63, an average of 12.6 per game. He’s the engine that drives Washington’s suddenly revamped offense.
So while Beal’s injury appeared more severe, losing Wall would undoubtedly be more negatively impactful for the Wizards. If they are going to knock off the top-seeded Hawks, the Wizards have to hope they won’t miss any extended time from either one.
