WASHINGTON — If you’re finding it difficult to get muster much excitement about the Washington Wizards’ return to the postseason, there is good reason. Sure, they have a chance to win a playoff series in consecutive years for the first time since 1978-79. And yes, they won 46 games, the most since that same season. But something is off about this team, and everyone knows it.
To start, Washington is just 14-22 against teams with winning records. Making matters worse, they are 0-3 against their first round opponent, the Toronto Raptors. Should they buck that trend and survive, the Wizards would likely face the top-seeded Hawks, whom they beat just once in four tries, when Atlanta was resting all five of its starters in the final week of the season.
In fact, the last time the Wizards beat an Eastern Conference playoff team even approaching full strength was all the way back on February 7, when they bested the Brooklyn Nets, a team that was 21-29 at the time and finished with a losing record both at home and on the road. Other than that recent victory over the Atlanta bench, the Wiz went 0-5 against such teams down the stretch. They enter the playoffs just 15-21 since January 28.
Washington won 46 games, but feasted on inferior competition for the bulk of that win total. Their +0.7 point per game differential is lower than every playoff team from the Western Conference. And their biggest issue, contrary to head coach Randy Wittman’s own proclamations, is their unimaginative and stagnant offense, not their defense or effort.
The Wizards rank 19th in the league in offensive efficiency, worse than every playoff team other than Milwaukee and Boston. Which, honestly, is kind of nuts.
They have the fifth-best assist ratio (18.3), which measures the percentage of possessions that end with an assist. The only teams they trail are all legitimate contenders — Golden State, Atlanta, the LA Clippers and San Antonio. That mark might be even higher if their three-point shooting (and general shot selection) was a bit better.
John Wall averages the second-most passes per game in the NBA, at 71.1. Likewise, he is second in points created by assist per game (23.1), trailing only Rajon Rondo and Chris Paul.
The problem is that Washington hasn’t been able to put the pieces of offense together around him to create effective production. Despite Wall’s efforts to create good looks for his teammates, the Wizards’ effective field goal percentage — (FG + 0.5 * 3P)/FGA — is just 49.9, tied for 13th in the NBA. Their true shooting percentage, which also factors in free throws, ranks just 16th.
One look at their point differential by quarter suggests that even when they start off in the right direction, they rarely finish that way. That margin drops each quarter, from +2.0 in the first all the way to an NBA-worst -1.7 in the fourth.
There is some good news. The Wizards were 9-4 in games decided by three points or fewer, as tight playoff games often are. They are just 4-4 in overtime, but only one Eastern Conference playoff team has a winning record in the extra session (Cavs: 3-1).
The Wizards also sport the fifth-best defensive efficiency, and second-best in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, Toronto’s defense has been awful, worse than all playoff teams than the Nets. Can Washington take advantage? Will it even matter, with the Hawks looming?
Predictions
Chris Chase, USA Today: Raptors in 6
Chris Cichon, WTOP: Wizards in 7
Noah Frank, WTOP: Raptors in 6
