WASHINGTON — What is it with the yo-yo performances of the Washington Nationals?
They’re slowly becoming the poor man’s San Francisco Giants (forget about the three World Series titles the Giants have — last fall’s flameout against the Cubs in Game 4 was even more spectacular than the Nats’ underwhelming Game 5 loss to the Dodgers). Washington has made playoff appearances the past three even-year seasons while taking frustrating walks in the wilderness during odd-numbered years.
The shock of making the postseason for the first time ever in 2012 was tempered by the frustration of a 2013 team that floundered. Similarly, the 2014 club that exceeded expectations found a way to spiral downward in 2015. The local team’s fortunes remind me of the Seinfeld episode where Elaine loses her job and winds up wearing sweatpants while George gets hired by the Yankees. Everything evens out eventually.
With a few exceptions (the Joe Torre Yankees, the Bobby Cox Braves), teams don’t often repeat as multiple-time division champs. In order to win in the first place, a club needs premium seasons from its best players and outlier-type seasons from the mid-range players. Doug Fister isn’t going to win 16 games a year, and when opposing hitters adjust and things aren’t as sharp as they were during the dream season, a 5-7 nightmare with a career-worst 4.17 ERA can be a rude awakening.
It hasn’t helped that there have been whispers around the Nats clubhouse regarding their manager in both occasions where the team was defending its title, whether it was Davey Johnson being put out to pasture or Matt Williams being out of his league. Dusty Baker’s calm center should keep the yo-yo in check somewhat, but players will still vary production-wise year to year.
That is very good news for Bryce Harper. The 2015 MVP had a less than stellar 2016, just like his 2014 was less than ideal. But even with all of his issues (some alleged to be injury-related), the Nats’ prime offensive weapon still ranked second on the team in on-base percentage, third in runs scored and second in runs batted in. Could this be the year he finally surpasses 100 RBI? The yo-yo says yes.
Does this mean that Max Scherzer will likely not win 20 games this season? Even though the ace says he’s recovered from the hairline fracture to the knuckle of his right ring finger, back-to-back 20-victory campaigns are few and far between in the current era. And Mad Max had a better WAR season the year before, when he went 14-12. What’s more unlikely for the reigning Cy Young winner is his continued prowess at the plate: Last season, Scherzer drove in 12 runs over 70 at-bats…a rate that would translate to 102 RBI over 600 at-bats.
Should Tanner Roark be nervous then? After winning 15 games in 2014, the pitcher went to the bullpen the following year and showed that he was best suited as a starting pitcher. His return to the rotation resulted in 16 wins and proved that 2014 wasn’t a fluke. He gets another year of going against third and fourth starters in other team’s rotations…so another 15-plus victory season isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Daniel Murphy fans should be wary, though. Nobody expected the offseason acquisition to hit .347 with 25 homers and 104 RBI in 2016, and nobody should expect him to match those numbers this year. Conventional wisdom (and at least one computer projection) has the second baseman hitting around the .290s with 15 HR and 80 RBI in 2017…but the famed conventional wisdom said the same thing about Murphy last year.
What to make of Trea Turner and Blake Treinen? Turner set the base paths on fire last season from the leadoff spot and returns to the top of the order this season. How much of his 2016 success (.342 with 33 steals and 53 runs scored over 73 games) can be attributed to beginner’s luck? Now that pitchers have an actual scouting report on the kid, one feels that while he’ll be productive, he won’t produce at his 2016 rate. Treinen had a breakthrough season last summer in the bullpen, but in a setup role. Posting an ERA of 2.28 over 73 games as a set-up man is one thing. But how will the 28-year-old handle the responsibility and expectations of being the team’s closer?
Sometimes the string wears out — Ryan Zimmerman’s coming off his least productive season and hasn’t driven in even 80 runs since 2012. The “new normal” for the oft-injured 32-year-old may be .250 with 15 homers and 55 RBI — not what you look for from a power position like first base. Jayson Werth enjoyed a resurgence after being moved to the No. 2 spot in the batting order last spring, but the 37-year-old enters the final year of his contract and hasn’t had consecutive 20-homer seasons since 2010-11. Like Zim, Werth plays a position where production is paramount.
How one veteran bounces back and another prevents a market correction could go a long way toward if the Nats will continue their even/odd-year yo-yo. That and, of course, the Mets, who were ravaged by injuries last year. One expects a bounce-back from the other NL East team to make the playoffs last year.
