The Nationals are in good shape entering the offseason, but they still have needs to address. Here are the four biggest questions facing the team this winter.
WASHINGTON — Coming off 95 wins and their third NL East division title in five seasons, the Washington Nationals return most of the core that got them there last year. The New York Mets should be healthier, but the Nats seem to be the favorites on paper before the free agent market settles. That doesn’t mean they don’t have needs to address, though.
With that in mind, these are the four biggest decisions facing a Washington team already pushing the boundaries of their recent payroll commitments as the hot stove season gets ready to swing into high gear.
(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
The entire back end of the bullpen
It’s easy to say the Nationals’ most pressing issue in the bullpen is the closer role, with midseason acquisition Mark Melancon hitting free agency after coming off his third All-Star appearance and third sub-2.00 ERA in four years. Considering that the St. Louis Cardinals just gave Brett Cecil $30.5 million for four years to be a setup man, it’s not hard to see Melancon pulling in north of $50 million over the same contract, as MLB Trade Rumors projects.
Whether or not the team that shells out that contract is Washington, the Nationals have more to worry about than simply replacing the final cog in a bullpen that posted the second-best ERA in baseball (3.37).
Blake Treinen’s ERA (2.28) was more than a point and a half lower than in 2015, despite a higher FIP (3.62/3.49). He allowed a lower hit rate, but his strikeout, walk and home run numbers were nearly identical in almost the exact same amount of innings pitched. The biggest difference? His BABIP dropped from .328 to .280. That suggests at least some regression is to be expected.
Shawn Kelley, meanwhile, posted the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate of his career as a 32-year-old. He seems to have turned a corner the past couple seasons and is under contract through 2018, but also benefited from a low BABIP (. 258) last year.
The Nats still have 35-year-old Oliver Perez (and his 5.96 ERA from June on) under contract for another year as well, though Matt Belisle is a free agent, as is Marc Rzepczynski.
Sammy Solis was very good outside of a high walk total, but will be looked upon to fill bigger shoes this year.
That leaves a number of roles to be filled, either by the likes of A.J. Cole, Koda Glover, Trevor Gott and Reynaldo Lopez or some combination of the existing young talent and other veteran free agents.
(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
The catching dilemma
Realistically, if the Nats wanted to keep Wilson Ramos, they should have given him the qualifying offer. Yes, it would have been a massive overpay for whatever fraction of the year he will play in 2017, but it would have allowed them to monitor his rehab, buying both time and goodwill in search of a possible extension. Now, with no draft pick penalty, he’s a much more attractive free agent. His future is probably splitting his time behind the plate and as a DH (as he’s admitted), so the American League likely makes the most sense.
That leaves the Nats with a career backup and a 23-year-old with 38 Major League plate appearances vying for the starting role on a contending team. The Nats could make a run at switch-hitting Matt Wieters, who could well command the biggest contract of any catcher on the open market. They could make a value play at Jason Castro to platoon with Pedro Severino until he is fully ready, or they could bring a pack of veteran non-roster invitees to Spring Training and let them Hunger Games it out for a gig.
(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
AP Photo/Nick Wass
Trea Turner’s yang
Perhaps the biggest long-term question the organization must begin to deal with this year is whether to leave Trea Turner in center field or return him to shortstop, where he played the majority of his minor league career. The answer may hinge less on Turner himself and more on who the Nationals are able to pick up to fill the void in either of those two spots.
Just as he was last year, Dexter Fowler remains an intriguing high on-base, veteran center field option. Concerns about his defense were seemingly allayed by better positioning, as the Cubs played him deeper than he had been by his prior clubs. He’ll be 31 by Opening Day though, so the matter of which team is willing to shell out the longest contract will come into play. The Nats could also make another run at Yoenis Cespedes, but he’ll likely command both a longer and richer contract than Fowler and is not a true solution in center field, as he profiles much better in the corner.
Yes, there’s also Ian Desmond, who has transitioned successfully from shortstop to center field, and I suppose you can never say never. But it’s difficult to imagine him back in D.C.
The shortstop position is basically nonexistent, meaning any upgrade there would have to come via trade. But there aren’t any bad teams dangling star shortstops at this point either. That makes an outfield acquisition seemingly the best value play, with Turner returning to the infield.
Looking for a Mike Rizzo Winter Meetings Shocker™? Andrew McCutchen may be available in a deal and Pittsburgh has been a recent trade partner. Would Washington part with highly touted outfield prospect Victor Robles and an arm or two? Remember — the meetings are at National Harbor this year. There would be no better setting for a blockbuster move than in your own backyard.
(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast
Buy … or Sale?
One of the strangest rumors that has emerged this offseason is the Nationals’ interest in White Sox ace Chris Sale. Chicago is in a terrific position of strength to make a deal, with a very team-friendly deal on one of the very best pitchers in baseball, in his prime, for another three seasons and a pitifully weak free agent starting pitching market. It would take a wealth of prospects to bring Sale aboard — think four players, including two top prospects — and his addition to the Nationals wouldn’t be the kind of upgrade it would be for a club with a replacement level number five starter.
Washington’s starting rotation is the strongest part of its team. Its money (or prospect collateral) is far better spent shoring up the more obvious and immediate weaknesses at catcher and the non-Trea Turner shortstop/center field vacancy, or even the back of the bullpen. In terms of versatility and options, there are bench upgrades that could be made to help provide insurance for Ryan Zimmerman at first base and/or a left-handed platoon bat to help spell Jayson Werth.
Of course Sale would help, but not enough to justify his cost.
(AP Photo/Paul Beaty)
The Nationals are in good shape entering the offseason, but they still have needs to address. Here are the biggest questions facing the team this winter.
