WASHINGTON — The night of the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft, Nationals scouts and baseball operations executives sat around tables in the press conference room in the bowels of Nationals Park in their best suits, watching monitors of the feed from New York City as names began to be called. Sitting with the 16th overall pick, they pulled down name placards from their own big board set up at the back of the room one by one.
Many names matched their own order, or were close enough. But as the picks got into the teens, one placard sat up above the rest, alone on the board. When it was Washington’s turn, they took Lucas Giolito, a giant Southern California high school right-hander with a 100-mph fastball and a hammer curveball, who also happened to blow out his ulnar collateral ligament in the middle of his senior season.
On Tuesday night at Nationals Park, his journey will reach its most significant milestone yet, as he makes his Major League debut against the division rival New York Mets. No Nationals pitcher has carried as much hype with him into his first Major League start since Stephen Strasburg six years ago.
But Giolito’s big league debut serves as a different kind of referendum for the organization and general manager Mike Rizzo. His start Tuesday becomes the first piece of tangible reward in actual Major League innings since the experiment of taking injured hurlers began just over four years ago.
The Nats will, they hope, never again have back-to-back top overall picks in the draft. That only happened because they turned in the worst season in baseball two years in a row, at just the right time to land consensus top talent in Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. Since that time, a big component of their draft strategy in the early rounds has been to target high-potential pitchers who have suffered serious arm injuries, leaning on their ability to rehab those players and keep them healthy in the future. Giolito is the most prominent such pitcher, a guy some thought would be the first-ever high school right-hander taken with the top overall pick before he blew out his elbow out.
So began what has become a trend for Washington, selecting UNLV hurler Erik Fedde with the 18th pick in 2014 after similarly tearing his UCL and dropping down draft boards. They did it again this year with Florida high schooler Jesus Luzardo, prying him from his University of Miami commitment with a signing bonus of $1.4 million, more than twice the slotted value of his 94th overall selection.
But neither of them have the cache that Giolito has carried since the day he signed, coming into this season as the top-ranked prospect in the minor leagues, according to MLB.com.
After something of a sluggish start, Giolito has looked better as he’s been allowed to stretch out his pitch count at Double-A Harrisburg. Over 22.2 innings in four June starts, he’s struck out 30 and walked just seven, pitching to a 3.18 ERA. Walks have been an issue at times for Giolito, who has issued four or more free passes in five of his 14 starts. But he’s allowed just two home runs all season while striking out better than a batter an inning and generating 1.3 ground outs per every air out, speaking to his ability to generate weak contact.
It would be foolish to take too much either way from Giolito’s start Tuesday, though the temptation will be strong among those who remember Strasburg’s transcendent, 14-strikeout debut. The starting rotation, if healthy, is still full, despite Gio Gonzalez’s recent struggles. As the lone lefty, it will take more than one rough patch to relegate him to the bullpen to make room for “little Gio.”
Thankfully for the Nationals, they won Monday’s series opener against the Mets, which takes a bit of pressure off Giolito. After a shaky start, Joe Ross settled down to get through six innings, leaving the bullpen fairly well rested. But this game will have a direct impact on the standings in the way Strasburg’s debut never did.
The Nationals are hoping this is just the first of many starts for Giolito and the rest of their calculated draft risks that impact their shot at a title.
