Here’s a look at the Nationals' season so far, what needs to improve, and what personnel changes might be looming as we head toward the All-Star break and the trade deadline.
Bryce Harper’s historic half
Bryce Harper hasn’t simply been the best player in baseball this year, he’s put up a season among the very best we’ve seen in the sport’s modern era. Through Sunday, the still-just-22-year-old led the league with his .474 on-base percentage, .722 slugging percentage and 58 runs scored. He has already reached career highs in home runs (25) and walks (62). But a larger perspective is required to understand just how dominant he’s been at the plate.
Harper’s OPS+, adjusted for era, is 225. That number may not mean much to some, but consider the list of players who have posted an OPS+ of 225 or better in a full season since 1900: Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams. That’s it. That’s the list.
Regardless of what you think about the steroid era, those are arguably the three best hitters in the history of baseball. What Harper has done to this point is on par with some of the greatest seasons any of those players ever put together (they have career OPS+ marks of 182, 206 and 190, for what it’s worth). The Nationals may be built on pitching, but Harper is the engine that drives the offense this year, especially with other key players out.
(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
The contagious injury bug
The Nationals have suffered a few injuries to key players in the season’s first half. Of course, this shouldn’t be entirely unexpected. The four biggest contributors who have missed significant time — Anthony Rendon, Denard Span, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman — all have checkered injury histories. Playing around injuries is a reality for every team over a 162-game slog, but should basically be an expected part of the process for the Nats.
The one truly indispensable player is Harper. He has stayed healthy and avoided the disabled list so far for the first time since 2012, and the Nats need to keep him on the field to be successful. Even injuries to rotation stalwarts like Strasburg and Doug Fister haven’t kept the pitching staff from missing a beat.
(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
The rotation goes round and round
The Max Scherzer signing has looked terrific so far. While the back end of the contract will probably hurt, it’s hard to imagine where the Nationals might be without Scherzer so far this season. He leads the league in WHIP, FIP, hits per nine innings, and strikeout-to-walk rate while throwing the most innings. It doesn’t take a sabermetrician to know that he’s been the most unhittable pitcher in the league.
And yet, in spite of Scherzer’s brilliance and the rotation’s recent scoreless innings run, the Nats only have the sixth-best ERA+ (106) in the National League. But their FIP (3.18) is the best in the league, as is their staff-wide 3.64 K/BB rate. They are the only staff to have allowed fewer than 200 walks all season.
And while both Strasburg and Fister have been on the shelf, the organizational depth has proven to be solid. Joe Ross’s brief turn at the big league level is an encouraging sign for the future, as is Lucas Giolito’s continued development on the farm.
But the dominance of the rotation has prevented one of the team’s biggest flaws from being routinely exposed. At some point, they will need to find a better solution to bridge the gap between the last pitch thrown by the starter and the first one thrown by Drew Storen.
(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
The bullpen still isn’t fixed
Drew Storen has been very good. And in spite of his past postseason struggles, there’s nothing in his performance that suggests he won’t be capable come October. But the rest of the relief corps is full of question marks.
Before Aaron Barrett got hurt, he posted an ERA over 5.00 in 30 appearances. Blake Treinen never really took the reins to the setup role after blowing a couple early save opportunities. With the loss of Craig Stammen, nobody has really filled the void left by him and Tyler Clippard. The relief corps has blown 10 saves, only two by Storen.
Casey Janssen has been decent since returning from the DL, posting a 3.21 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP before allowing the game-winning home run Monday night. But like fellow newcomer David Carpenter (1.50 ERA/1.17 WHIP), the peripheral numbers are less encouraging. Janssen is striking out just 3.9 batters per nine innings, with Carpenter at 6.0. That’s the worst mark of Jannsen’s career, even lower than when he was a starter. And it’s way down from Carpenter’s prime (10.0), when he was effective in Atlanta. Neither appear to be a long-term fix in the late innings, which is why a deal seems likely.
(AP Photo/Michael Perez)
AP Photo/Michael Perez
Potential trade targets
The option that would seem to make the most sense for the Nats is Cincinnati Reds closer Aroldis Chapman. Not only would he bring a second high-velocity, shutdown arm to the back of the ‘pen, he would be a left-handed counterpart to Drew Storen. Rumor out of Cincinnati is that ownership wants to sit tight through at least the All-Star Game before unloading any talent, but Chapman seems to be a piece that will be available come late July.
The Nats could also use another versatile bat in their lineup, especially one that helps them mitigate potential injury concerns. I’ve argued for a long time that Ben Zobrist is a great fit for this team because of his ability to play all over the diamond while producing at the plate from the left side, and that sentiment is as true today as it’s ever been. With Oakland seemingly headed toward sell mode, Zobrist’s will be a popular name among buyers, but he could be a crucial pickup for Washington.
(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh
The NL East is awful
Perhaps the greatest cushion to any potential pitfalls is the fact that the NL East is easily the worst division in baseball. The Mets have won three-of-four to sneak above .500 as the second-best team in the division, despite allowing eight runs more than they’ve scored this season. In fact, the five teams are a combined 32 games under .500, with a -166 run differential. The Marlins, who seemed the most credible threat on Opening Day, are a rolling tire fire, having already axed their manager and just lost the only credible threat to Bryce Harper’s MVP candidacy to a broken hand.
If the Nats were in the NL West, they would be behind the Dodgers. If they were in the Central, they’d be in third place, 8.5 games behind the first-place Cardinals and just a game in front of the Cubs. Instead, they have a 3.5-game cushion on the Mets.
Even if the Nationals limp to the finish line, the worst case scenario appears to be opening on the road in Los Angeles for the NLDS.
(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
WASHINGTON — It’s been a season of swings so far for the District nine. After starting the year 7-13, they won 21 of their next 27. Since going 6-14 over the 20 games that followed, Washington is 12-4 since. On one hand, the streakiness makes them exciting. On the other, the inconsistency can be maddening.
Ian Desmond has settled since his early error-prone streak, though his offense has yet to fully come around. Injuries to Jayson Werth and Anthony Rendon have kept the lineup from being what was expected during Spring Training. And Stephen Strasburg is back on the disabled list for the second time. So with 83 games in the bag, just over halfway through the 2015 regular season, what do we know about this team?
Flip through the slides above for a look at what we’ve seen so far, what needs to improve, and what personnel changes might be looming we head toward the All-Star break and the trade deadline.
