Week 16 Washington Commanders rooting guide originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
If you, as a Washington Commanders fan, weren’t paying attention to the other teams in the NFC Playoff Picture, now is the time to start doing so.
Washington’s Week 15 loss to the New York Giants (8-5-1) now puts their playoff fate in question. The Commanders hold the final spot in the NFC Playoffs and with it still control their playoff destiny. However, a Week 16 date with the NFC West champion San Francisco 49ers (10-4) gives everyone pause. There’s not much wiggle room anymore to manage another loss.
That is why Washington needs to care about what happens elsewhere in the NFC. The Seattle Seahawks (7-7), Detroit Lions (7-7) and even to an extent the Green Bay Packers (6-8) are all nipping at their heels for that final spot.
Despite being a half-game back, analytics sites have moved the Lions ahead of the Commanders in terms of playoff odds. A schedule that features at the Carolina Panthers (5-9), vs. the Chicago Bears (3-11) and at Green Bay gives them the easiest final docket for all of the team in the playoff hunt. Detroit has also won six of their last seven games as one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
Will they make it 9-1 in their final 10-game stretch? The only team in the league to accomplish that feat this year is the Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) and incredibly difficult to do.
Then again, if the Commanders go undefeated, all those teams’ results become meaningless. After Week 16, Washington has games against the Cleveland Browns (6-8) and Dallas Cowboys (10-4).
There’s not too much to worry about in terms of tiebreakers. The Commanders lost the only one that will likely matter when they fell to the Giants. Another tie would have to be involved for a traditional tiebreaker to be a factor with the rest of the teams.
The Commanders remain mathematically alive for all three Wild Cards in the NFC. Two weeks ago, Washington was eliminated from winning the division and therefore cannot finish in the top four in the conference.
The Minnesota Vikings (11-3) and 49ers both clinched their respective division crowns last week. They will join the Eagles and the Cowboys in the playoff field. The Los Angeles Rams (4-10) and Arizona Cardinals (4-10) were eliminated.
That leaves nine teams vying for the final three spots.
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There is a methodology for this guide. The initial selection of which team to root for is based on the assumption that Washington wins out the remainder of the season (resulting in a 10-6-1 record). The only time it will not is when there is a bigger benefit in direct playoff positioning between the Commanders and another team for a matchup.
Tiebreaking procedures are considered with head-to-head results being the priority, followed by the win-loss percentage in division games (for NFC East opponents) and then record vs. common opponents.
So far Washington has tiebreakers over the following teams:
-Green Bay Packers (6-8) – head-to-head
-Falcons (5-9) – head-to-head
The Burgandy and Gold have lost the tiebreakers to these teams:
Dallas Cowboys (10-4) – divisional record
-New York Giants (8-5-1) – head-to-head
-Detroit Lions (7-7) – head-to-head
Tiebreakers that are yet to be determined by contending teams:
Seattle Seahawks (7-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8), Carolina Panthers (5-9) and New Orleans Saints (5-9).
Washington Week 16 Rooting Guide
Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
Saturday, Dec. 24 at 1 p.m. ET
The Falcons are not a team that the Commanders should be concerned about in their playoff chase. Yet, they’re still alive for the Wild Card and NFC South. Root for the Ravens.
Detroit Lions (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)
Saturday, Dec. 24 at 1 p.m. ET
With the Lions’ win over the Jets paired with the Commanders’ loss to the Giants, Detroit now has the best chance (40%) of earning the seventh playoff bid in the NFC of the contending teams, according to FiveThirtyEight. Washington is not that far behind them but the Lions’ schedule is far easier.
After Carolina, the Lions have Chicago at home and travel to Green Bay in Week 18 who may have nothing to play for. The Panthers are technically still alive in the Wild Card but their best postseason chance resides in winning their division. Root for the Panthers.
This may be the most important non-Commanders game for the final three weeks of the season in determining if Washington is postseason-bound.
New Orleans Saints (5-9) at Cleveland Browns (6-8)
Saturday, Dec. 24 at 1 p.m. ET
Somehow, both these teams have a shot at the playoffs. Yes, the Saints are still in contention for the No. 7 seed. Root for the Browns.
Seattle Seahawks (7-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)
Saturday, Dec. 24 at 1 p.m. ET
The juice behind the Seahawks’ impressive start to the season is starting to run out. Washington cannot afford to have Seattle win more games than them in the final three weeks of the season. This should cement that. Root for the Chiefs.
New York Giants (8-5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (11-3)
Saturday, Dec. 24 at 1 p.m. ET
Somehow, the Vikings survived last week’s thriller with the Indianapolis Colts. Boy, that would have made the NFC North race extremely interesting. The Commanders now have no reason to care about what Minnesota does with their division title.
The No. 6 seed is still within Washington’s grasp but the Giants need to start losing. Root for the Vikings.
Washington Commanders (7-6-1) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
Saturday, Dec. 24 at 4:05 p.m. ET
A loss to the 49ers would likely prevent Washington from controlling their playoff fate. If Detroit or Seattle win and the Commanders lose, Washington would then have to rely on other teams losing to make the postseason.
So, for now, this game is the most important game for the Commanders in the final three weeks of the season.
Here’s how the odds of them making the playoffs change based on the result of this game, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Right now Washington has a 35% chance to make playoffs entering the matchup. A win vaults them up to a 64% chance. A loss drops them to 22% and a tie doesn’t change things much at 36%. Keep in mind that is without factoring in what others do in Week 16.
Any non-winning result is not great. Root for the Commanders.
Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) at Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
Saturday, Dec. 24 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Well, well, well. There are a variety of ways for Commanders fans to look at this matchup. Ultimately, Washington should not want Dallas playing for anything in Week 18 unless it’s for the Commanders’ to leapfrog the Cowboys for the No. 5 seed.
To do that, Dallas needs to go 0-2 entering that matchup and Washington 2-0.
However, some may feel that getting the No. 5 seed is too far out of reach for Washington. The last thing the Commanders would need is the Cowboys having to win in Week 18 to take the fifth seed over the Giants while Washington was still trying just to get into the dance.
Several variables are at play, but the Commanders still have a shot at passing Dallas. So, for now, Root for the Eagles.
Green Bay Packers (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-6)
Sunday, Dec. 25 at 1 p.m. ET
The Packers are still alive in the NFC Playoff Picture and have an 8% chance of getting in. That drops to zero if the Dolphins beat them. Root for the Dolphins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) at Arizona Cardinals (4-9)
Sunday, Dec. 25 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Arizona is eliminated and Tampa Bay is far behind Washington, if they don’t hold on the NFC South. The chances of the Buccaneers having an impact on the Commanders is slim but in case all you know what breaks lose, root for the Cardinals.
