Week 15 Washington Commanders rooting guide originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
If everything goes as well for the Washington Commanders in Week 15 as it did in Week 14, there’s an extremely high chance this team could have an extra game on their schedule in January.
Washington is riding high after their bye week. Some of the most important results that could have gone their way did, one happening in a manner that no one expected with the Carolina Panthers (5-8) shocking victory over the Seattle Seahawks (7-6). Washington moved from outside the playoff field to the No. 6 seed in the NFC without playing a down of football.
Not only do the Commanders control their playoff destiny, but they can also determine if they are the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. Win out and Washington will be the No. 6 seed, at minimum, and with that would come a slightly easier matchup in the Wild Card Round.
But first, the Commanders have to get there. This week is huge in creating the field, creating what feels like a win-and-in situation for their matchup against the New York Giants (7-5-1).
One thing to keep in mind is that tiebreakers – except in the Giants’ case – mean almost nothing for the Commanders. With their Week 13 tie to New York, now the only way they can tie with another team is if there was another tie among playoff-contending teams. Unless that happens, Washington will be at least a half-game up or down in the standings.
After Week 15, Washington has games against the San Francisco 49ers (9-4), the Cleveland Browns (5-8) and a Week 18 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys (10-3).
The Commanders are mathematically alive for just the three Wild Cards in the NFC. Washington is eliminated from winning the division and therefore cannot finish in the top four in the conference.
The Philadelphia Eagles (12-1) are the only team to have clinched a spot. No one has joined Chicago Bears (3-10) in elimination. That leaves 14 teams vying for six spots.
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There is a methodology for this guide. The initial selection of which team to root for is based on the assumption that Washington wins out the remainder of the season (resulting in an 11-5-1 record). The only time it will not is when there is a bigger benefit in direct playoff positioning between the Commanders and another team for a matchup.
Tiebreaking procedures are considered with head-to-head results being the priority, followed by the win-loss percentage in division games (for NFC East opponents) and then record vs. common opponents.
So far Washington has tiebreakers over the following teams:
-Falcons (5-8) – head-to-head
-Green Bay Packers (5-8) – head-to-head
The Burgandy and Gold have lost the tiebreakers to these teams:
-Minnesota Vikings (10-3) – head-to-head
-Detroit Lions (6-7) – head-to-head
Tiebreakers that are yet to be determined by contending teams:
Dallas Cowboys (10-3), San Francisco 49ers (9-4), New York Giants (7-5-1), Seattle Seahawks (7-6), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7), Carolina Panthers (5-8), Arizona Cardinals (4-9), New Orleans Saints (4-9) and Los Angeles Rams (4-9).
Washington Week 15 Rooting Guide
San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Seattle Seahawks (7-6)
Thursday, Dec. 15 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Some fans want to bury their heads in the sand and believe the only path for the Commanders to make the playoffs is by beating the Giants on Sunday. Well, if Seattle – with their difficult schedule – can’t collect enough wins to pass Washington, then there’s your second way to make the postseason.
There was some concern about worrying about the 49ers’ record down the stretch, but the bottom line is the Commanders cannot pass the NFC West champion. It’s best for Washington if San Francisco comes out on top. Root for the 49ers.
Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) at Minnesota Vikings (10-3)
Saturday, Dec. 17 at 1 p.m. ET
There is still a path for the Lions to pass the Vikings (albeit very slim) in the NFC North. And with that, there’s then a path for the Vikings to join the Commanders in the battle for a Wild Card berth.
Think I’m crazy? Look at how it can happen:
DET (10-7): W @ NYJ, W @ CAR, W vs. CHI, W @ GB
MIN (10-7): L vs. IND, L vs. NYG, L @ GB, L @ CHI
WAS (10-6-1): W vs. NYG, L @ SF, L vs. CLE, W vs. DAL
It’s not like you’re sacrificing anything either in a cross-conference affair. Root for the Colts.
Atlanta Falcons (5-8) at New Orleans Saints (4-9)
Sunday, Dec. 18 at 1 p.m. ET
It likely won’t mean anything, but the Falcons are 2.5 games behind Washington and the Saints are 3.5. Root for the Saints.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8) at Carolina Panthers (5-8)
Sunday, Dec. 18 at 1 p.m. ET
The Panthers are very much alive in the NFC Playoff Picture. They are just a game back of the Buccaneers for the NFC South title and have a favorable schedule which could possibly put them in the Wild Card mix as well.
A 9-8 or an 8-9 finish with games vs. Pittsburgh, Detroit, at Tampa Bay and against the Saints is not out of the question. Root for the Steelers.
Philadelphia Eagles (12-1) at Chicago Bears (3-10)
Sunday, Dec. 18 at 1 p.m. ET
This game doesn’t directly affect the Commanders. Washington can’t pass the Eagles nor can the Bears pass the Commanders. But, if you want Dallas to be resting their starters in Week 18, root for the Eagles.
Dallas Cowboys (10-3) at Jaguars (5-8)
Sunday, Dec. 18 at 1:00 p.m. ET
Dallas had quite the scare last week and one would assume they would be better prepared against the Jags. If the Commanders win out and the Cowboys were to lose at least two more games (in addition to Week 18), Washington would then climb to the No. 5 seed.
You likely don’t need a reason to root against Dallas, but if you did, there’s your reason to root for the Jaguars.
Detroit Lions (6-7) at New York Jets (7-6)
Sunday, Dec. 18 at 1 p.m. ET
Detroit is all of a sudden the sexy pick to backdoor themselves into the playoffs. While the Commanders are still 1.5 games up on the Lions, there may not be many losses ahead on the Lions’ schedule.
New York is the best team remaining on their docket, root for the Jets.
Arizona Cardinals (4-9) at Denver Broncos (3-10)
Sunday, Dec. 18 at 4:05 p.m. ET
There are other games to worry about. Stick a fork in the Cardinals. It’s AFC vs. NFC, so always root for the AFC opponent. Root for the Broncos.
Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)
Sunday, Dec. 18 at 4:25 p.m. ET
In case the Panthers do go on a run and regulate the Bucs to the Wild Card race, root for the Bengals.
New York Giants (7-5-1) at Washington Commanders (7-5-1)
Sunday, Dec. 18 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Many say this is a must-win game for the Commanders. While it’s technically not, their lives get a whole lot easier with a win. Let’s look to see how FiveThirtyEight has the metrics lining up:
Right now, Washington has a 73% chance of making the playoffs, the second-best of NFC Wild Card hopefuls.
A win vs. New York moves that up to 91% a loss moves it down to 34%. A tie, well, that makes it a 64% chance.
What a tie would also do is keep the tiebreaker up for grabs. The Giants are really the only team where a tiebreaker matters at this point. Root for the Commanders
Los Angeles Rams (4-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-8)
Monday, Dec. 19 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Another game that likely means very little for the Commanders. Still, root for the Rams with the Packers a game closer in the standings.
