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President Joe Biden’s decision to no longer seek reelection may have a big impact at the polls this fall in Virginia.
Karen Hult, professor of political science at Virginia Tech, said many Democrats “breathed a real sigh of relief,” while others were disappointed that their primary ballots were “no longer relevant.”
“I do think there may be an impact on the down-ballot races,” she said.
Hult said that anything can change, especially if this is a wave election — landslide votes where a political party makes major gains.
“That is if the Republicans win big, which is not out of the question, or if the Democrats do better than expected, that can make differences that the other races as well,” she said.
Impact on down-ballot races?
All 11 U.S. House seats in Virginia are on the ballot this fall, as is the U.S. Senate seat held by Tim Kaine, who is running for reelection.
It’s unclear how Biden’s departure will impact those races.
“The ones probably of most interest to many Virginians,” Hult said, are those where the incumbent is stepping down, leaving an open seat.
In Northern Virginia, there are two of those seats.
Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat who represents the Seventh District, is stepping down from her seat to make a run for Virginia governor next year. Her district includes parts of Central and Northern Virginia, including Culpeper, Spotsylvania and Stafford counties, the city of Fredericksburg and part of Prince William County.
In the 10th District, which includes all of Fauquier and Loudoun counties and part of Fairfax and Prince William, Rep. Jennifer Wexton, a Democrat, is stepping down from her seat because of health challenges. She announced in September she would not run for reelection after being diagnosed with progressive supranuclear palsy.
Another close race is in the Virginia Beach area, where Jen Kiggans, a Republican, faces a Democratic challenger. Kiggans is a first-time incumbent.
“Often, that’s the time in which elected representatives are … most vulnerable,” Hult said.
“Most of the other races in the state are probably along predictable lines,” she added.
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When it comes to the shift of focus for the Republican Party, Hult said that happened right away.
She said she believes that the campaign for former President Donald Trump was ready for Biden’s decision.
“The attacks started almost immediately,” she said. “Those had been prepared at the end of the Republican convention; they’re on TV airwaves in many parts of the country.”
And with Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance speaking in Virginia on Monday, and more campaign events to come from both parties across the state, Hult said Virginia voters have a lot of say in this election.
“Virginia is in play for the presidential race,” Hult said. “And that can make a difference with the congressional races as well.”
In terms of history, she said the U.S. is seeing something that just doesn’t happen: “We’ve never had a presidential candidate withdraw this late in the election season. … And we’ve not had an incumbent president withdraw from a reelection bid since 1968, when Lyndon Baines Johnson withdrew in March of 1968.”
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