This article was reprinted with permission from Virginia Mercury.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, leads Republican Donald Trump by 11 points (52-41%) among Virginia likely voters, according to a new poll released Monday by the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University.
The survey found that 4% of voters remain undecided four weeks before the Nov. 5 election, while 3% say they will vote for someone else.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican Hung Cao by 20 points, or 55% to 35%, with 8% saying they are undecided and 2% saying they will vote for someone else.
Top-of-mind issues for Virginia likely voters include inflation and the economy (29%), threats to democracy (18%), immigration (11%), followed by abortion (10%).
According to the survey, voters think Harris would do a better job than Trump handling an array of policy issues, with a narrow lead on inflation and the economy (49% to 48%), a moderate advantage on threats to democracy (54-40%) and a large advantage on abortion (60-32%), racial inequality (61-31%) and climate change (61-29%). Trump has a narrow advantage over Harris on handling immigration (49-48%).
Overall, Harris has a +9 favorability rating (51-42%) in Virginia, with 8% indicating they have no opinion or don’t know. Trump is underwater with a -22 favorability rating (36-58%); 6% say no opinion or don’t know.
Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, has a +12 favorability rating (47-35%), with 19% indicating no opinion or don’t know. Ohio Sen. JD Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee, has a –16 favorability rating at 34 to 50%, with 16% indicating no opinion or don’t know.
Kaine has a +23 favorability rating (53-30%) with 17% saying they have no opinion or don’t know. Cao has an even favorability rating (23-23%); however, he is less well known, with a majority of likely voters indicating no opinion or don’t know (54%).
With early voting underway in Virginia since Sept. 20, likely voters are “fairly enthusiastic” to vote in the elections, with 82% indicating they are either very enthusiastic (64%) or somewhat enthusiastic (18%). Democratic voters have an enthusiasm advantage with 75% indicating they are very enthusiastic compared to 68% of Republicans and 46% of Independents.
While most Virginia likely voters surveyed have yet to cast their ballots, a higher percentage of Democrats say they have voted when compared to Republicans and Independents (22-11-9%). In past elections Democrats have been more likely to vote early than Republicans, though Gov. Glenn Youngkin made a push in the 2022 General Assembly elections for Republicans to vote early and has advocated for early voting in the current election cycle.
The results of the Wason poll are based on 800 interviews with registered Virginia voters who are likely general election voters, including 211 on landline and 589 on cell phone, conducted Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, 2024. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/-4.4%
