I’ve gone on record over the years about how the “College Football Playoff Rankings Release Show” — that premieres with most teams having 25% to 33% of their regular season schedule remaining — is akin to tasting a cake that’s been in the oven for five minutes.
But, it’s nice to see where everyone stands during the final weeks, even though I often feel that when it comes to the placing teams in the playoff the committee instead of using the evidence to yield the verdict, winds up choosing the evidence to “fit the verdict.”
This week, I was surprised to see Miami named as one of the automatic qualifiers, even though the Hurricanes did not have the best record in the ACC (that goes to SMU, who was out of the field).
Same case with Texas A&M or Tennessee who currently have a better SEC record than Texas. But, it was the Longhorns who were placed in the “automatic spot” despite standing a half-game behind the Aggies and Volunteers in the standings. Now, do I think that Miami and Texas are still on track to capture their conference championships? Yes, but if we’re going to watch a show that gives us a “snapshot,” please use the actual picture.
Saturday’s Games:
Navy (7-2, 5-1 AAC) vs No. 25 Tulane (8-2, 6-0), noon, ESPN2. The last time these two teams met the Midshipmen won on a last-second field goal in 2020. This year’s winner gets the inside track to Conference Championship Game, with a Mids loss ending their title hopes. And they’ve got their work cut out for them: The Green Wave leads the AAC in scoring (41 points per game) while also boasting the best third down defense (29.8%). Can an offense that’s lost a bit of its oomph (52 points over its last three games) return to form? Blake Horvath after completing 64% of his passes with 10 touchdowns while rushing for 621 yards over his first six games has been held to 50% completions with 60 yards per game since the loss to Notre Dame. A Tulane defense that’s equally stingy on the ground (third in the conference stopping the run) with an aggressive pass rush (28 sacks are second most in the AAC) presents plenty of problems.
Presto’s Pick: Midshipmen come up short, 38-35.
Virginia (5-4) at No. 8 Notre Dame (8-1), 3:30 p.m. on NBC. The Cavaliers upset of No. 23 Pitt places the school within one victory of bowl eligibility. That’s the good news. But U.Va. wraps up the season by facing foes like the Fighting Irish and No. 14 SMU before going to a place they’ve lost at 15 straight times (Virginia Tech’s Lane Stadium). The buzzsaw begins with a trip to South Bend against a Notre Dame team needing to win out to make the College Football Playoff (the Northern Illinois loss blemish can be forgiven if it’s their only hiccup). Since that dark day the Irish have posted six of their seven victories by 18 points or more, as dual threat quarterback Riley Leonard has emerged as the team’s leading rusher (609 yards and 13 touchdowns on 6.3 per carry) while limiting mistakes (one interception in the last two months). Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s defense has allowed over 14 points just once (in a 31-24 win over No. 15 Louisville) and the Fighting Irish are tied for third nationally in turnover margin (Virginia is tied for 77th in FBS). But U.Va. still heads to South Bend with the knowledge they can beat a ranked foe on the road as well as plenty of hope.
Kippy and Buffy break out a bottle of white wine for the final time (as is the case with nonconference games) and think hope is a great thing to have. The Austin Hope 2020 Verdelho (a grape primarily grown in Portugal) comes from Paso Robles, California, and “possesses aromas of honeydew, pineapple and white flower,” according to the winery website. “On the palate, luscious tropical notes are complimented by a splash of citrus. The beautiful finish is balanced with minerality and fresh acidity to lighten the hint of sweetness that lingers throughout.”
Presto’s Pick: Hope does not float as the Cavaliers crumble 37-17.
James Madison (7-2, 3-2 Sun Belt) at Old Dominion (4-5, 3-2), 4 p.m., ESPNU. Should there be cause for concern in Harrisonburg? The Dukes won have lost both of their road conference games this fall, looking nothing like the team that has shined at home or the club that put 70 points on the board in Chapel Hill. While JMU was stellar in September, ODU began the year by averaging 17 points during an 0-3 start. They switched quarterbacks after freshman Colton Joseph directed a game-winning touchdown drive against Bowling Green, and the Monarchs have won three of his five starts (with the losses coming by eight points apiece). But with freshmen there are often growing pains, and last week Joseph turned the ball over three times a loss to Appalachian State. By the way, the Dukes currently lead the nation in turnover margin. Matchup to watch: the JMU pass rush (27 sacks ranks third in the SBC) against a porous offensive line (ODU allows the second-most sacks in the conference with 27).
Presto’s Pick: Dukes deliver on the road with a 30-24 triumph.
Maryland (4-5, 1-5 Big Ten) vs Rutgers (5-4, 2-4), 6 p.m., FS1. While some might be miffed at the odd start-time (noon, 3:30, and 7/7:30/8 p.m. are the recognized major windows on Saturday), I’m pleased because this will allow me to cover Navy-Tulane at noon before driving on 50 then 495 to make the late kickoff. These two schools joined the Big Ten together in 2014, the Terps after 60+ years as a charter member of the ACC and the Scarlet Knights after a one-year stopover in the AAC from the Big East. Maryland has won seven of 10 when they’ve been conference foes, taking the last three by an average score of 40-13. Both schools have one win since end of September: the Scarlet Knights snapped a five-game losing streak by beating Minnesota last Saturday on an afternoon where transfer quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis threw three touchdowns against his former team. The Terps’ season has turned on turnovers (or lack thereof): 14 takeaways to three giveaways before October first, and a 1-to-11 ratio since.
Presto’s Pick: I have just as much trouble pronouncing “Kaliakmanis” during my updates from the stadium as the Terps do stopping him as the Scarlet Knights prevail 34-27.
Howard falls to North Carolina Central, Georgetown wins at Fordham, Richmond beats Hampton, Morgan State slips to South Carolina State, Towson tops North Carolina A&T.
Last Week: 4-1.
Season: 59-33.
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