Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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A first-place showdown, five road favorites and an old Super Bowl rematch highlight the NFL’s Week 9 schedule.
The NFC North will be on the line when the Detroit Lions (6-1) visit the Green Bay Packers (6-2) on Sunday. The Lions handed Minnesota its first loss of the season in a battle for first place two weeks ago.
The Los Angeles Rams (3-4) are a surprise road favorite at Seattle (4-4) in an NFC West matchup. The Seahawks, Cardinals and 49ers are locked in a three-way tie for first place with the Rams right behind.
The injury-depleted Buccaneers (4-4) visit the Chiefs (7-0) on Monday night without several key players in the lineup. Tampa Bay has lost three of four. The teams met in the Super Bowl four years ago with Tom Brady leading the Buccaneers to a 31-9 victory that prevented Kansas City from repeating.
Pro Picks doesn’t give Tampa Bay much of a chance.
Tampa Bay (4-4) at Kansas City (7-0)
Line: Chiefs minus 9
The Chiefs have won 13 in a row and they’re still not clicking completely on offense. Patrick Mahomes played better in his first game with new receiver De’Andre Hopkins. Now they’ll have an opportunity to light up the NFL’s third-worst defense. The Buccaneers have allowed 33.4 points per game over the past four and they’ve yielded 387 yards per game this season. A poor defense has prevented Baker Mayfield from winning more games. Even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Buccaneers can move the ball. Mayfield can’t afford to sling anymore picks this week and the Tampa Bay’s three-headed rushing attack needs to control the clock and keep Mahomes off the field.
BEST BET: CHIEFS: 33-20
Los Angeles Rams (3-4) at Seattle (4-4)
Line: Rams minus 2
The Seahawks have lost four of five after a 3-0 start, including a lopsided loss at home last week to Buffalo. The Rams are coming off a mini-bye following an impressive win over Minnesota last Thursday. Matthew Stafford and the offense got going with the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Seattle has the league’s No. 1 passing offense behind Geno Smith but Kenneth Walker III hasn’t gotten on track yet. The Rams are 0-3 against the spread on the road this season. The Seahawks are 1-4 against it at home this season.
UPSET SPECIAL: SEAHAWKS: 24-23
Houston (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6)
Line: Jets minus 1 1/2
Aaron Rodgers and the struggling Jets continue to get respect from oddsmakers. Despite losing five consecutive games, they’re favored against the AFC South-leading Texans. Houston’s defense presents another tough challenge for Rodgers, Davante Adams and the rest of New York’s underachieving offense. The Texans need to do a better job protecting C.J. Stroud, who is taking too many hits. Houston lost receiver Stefon Diggs to a season-ending knee injury, increasing the need to run the ball with Joe Mixon. This should be a low-scoring game with two of the NFL’s top four defenses facing off.
JETS: 19-16
Washington (6-2) at New York Giants (2-6)
Line: Commanders minus 3 1/2
Jayden Daniels saved Washington from defeat with a Hail Mary pass against Chicago, and the NFC East-leading Commanders are one of the biggest surprises of the season. They can’t afford a letdown against the overmatched Giants if they want to win the division. The Giants have won just four of their past 20 games against NFC East opponents. But Daniel Jones is 5-2-1 in his career against Washington. The Giants played inspired ball and battled Pittsburgh to the end on Monday night. A similar effort could result in victory. The Commanders are 6-0-1 against the spread since Week 2. The Giants are 4-1 against it in their past five games vs. Washington. Something has to give.
COMMANDERS: 22-20
Dallas (3-4) at Atlanta (5-3)
Line: Falcons minus 2 1/2
If the Cowboys are going to turn their season around, it has to start in Atlanta. They have a struggling defense that desperately needs Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and DaRon Bland to return. Dak Prescott has to protect the ball better and Dallas has to find a way to run the ball more effectively. Kirk Cousins has helped the Falcons gain control of the NFC South thanks to two superb performances against Tampa Bay. Still, Atlanta has been inconsistent. The Falcons lost by 20 at home to Seattle two weeks ago and the Cowboys are quite desperate.
COWBOYS: 27-26
Las Vegas (2-6) at Cincinnati (3-5)
Line: Bengals minus 7
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are running out of time to turn things around. They were walloped at home by the Eagles but the Raiders are a bad football team. They have no running game and Gardner Minshew isn’t a QB who can carry the offense. If Tee Higgins returns, that’ll be another boost for Cincinnati’s offense. The Raiders are 8-4 against the spread in their past 12 games but 0-6 against it in the past six vs. the Bengals.
BENGALS: 27-18
Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) at Cleveland (2-6)
Line: Chargers minus 2
Justin Herbert has found a strong connection with Ladd McConkey, the run game is working for the Chargers behind J.K. Dobbins and the defense is top 10. The Browns were rejuvenated by Jameis Winston, who threw for 334 yards and three TDs last week in a comeback win over Baltimore. Cleveland is 1-9 straight up in its past 10 games vs. AFC West opponents and 3-7 against the spread in the past 10 games overall.
CHARGERS: 20-17
New England (2-6) at Tennessee (1-6)
Line: Titans minus 3 1/2
This matchup features two of the three worst offenses in the NFL. The Patriots are last while Tennessee is ranked 30th. But the Titans have the league’s No. 1 ranked defense. Mason Rudolph or Will Levis? Brian Callahan’s offense needs to get going, though the first-year coach could end up with his choice of quarterbacks if Tennessee keeps losing and earns the first pick in the draft. The Patriots proved they weren’t “soft” last week when veteran Jacoby Brissett stepped in for Drake Maye and rallied them to a win over the Jets.
TITANS: 17-13
New Orleans (2-6) at Carolina (1-7)
Line: Saints minus 7 1/2
Another game involving two teams that have lost at least three-fourths of their games. The Saints have struggled offensively without Derek Carr. The Panthers can’t do anything whether it’s Andy Dalton or Bryce Young under center. The winner is more of a loser in this one because it’s not too early to be looking ahead to draft positioning.
SAINTS: 23-20
Denver (5-3) at Baltimore (5-3)
Line: Ravens minus 9
The Broncos have won five of their past six, rookie QB Bo Nix is coming off his best game and the defense is ranked No. 3 in the NFL. Yet, Denver is nearly a double-digit underdog against Baltimore. The Ravens added another playmaker for Lamar Jackson this week, acquiring receiver Diontae Johnson from Carolina. Now they just need their defense to step up after another letdown in a loss to Cleveland.
RAVENS: 23-16
Miami (2-5) at Buffalo (6-2)
Line: Bills minus 6
Tua Tagovailoa returned last week. Now, the Dolphins need to get back on the winning track. It’ll be tough to start that winning streak in Buffalo. Josh Allen and the Bills dominated Seattle on the road, extended their lead in the AFC East and proved again why they shouldn’t be overlooked in a loaded conference. The Dolphins were blown out at home by Buffalo in Week 2 when Tagovailoa suffered a concussion colliding into Damar Hamlin. They’ve got enough playmakers, including Tyreek Hill, to be competitive.
BILLS: 27-23
Jacksonville (2-6) at Philadelphia (5-2)
Line: Eagles minus 7 1/2
Jalen Hurts is playing his best stretch of football since he was MVP runner-up in 2022 and the Eagles have won three straight to silence the critics who called for coach Nick Sirianni’s job. Jaguars coach Doug Pederson, who led Philadelphia to its only Super Bowl title seven years ago, needs to stack some wins to get off the hot seat himself. Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith could have a big day against Jacksonville’s 29th-ranked defense. After holding Joe Burrow and the Bengals to 17 points, Philadelphia’s improved defense faces Trevor Lawrence and a short-handed offense that’ll be missing receiver Christian Kirk and traded away left tackle Cam Robinson.
EAGLES: 27-22
Chicago (4-3) at Arizona (4-4)
Line: Cardinals minus 1
Caleb Williams and the Bears have to shake off the Hail Mary loss and go back to work. With D’Andre Swift running well, Chicago’s offense has balance. Williams needs to rebound from a poor game and go back to what worked the previous three when his passer rating was over 100 in each. Kyler Murray was superb in a comeback win in Miami and the Cardinals have won two in a row to get in the playoff race. The Bears need to find a way to slow Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. Chicago is 7-2 against the spread in the past nine games vs. NFC opponents. The Cardinals are 0-5 against it in the past five vs. NFC North teams.
BEARS: 25-23
Detroit (6-1) at Green Bay (6-2)
Line: Lions minus 3 1/2
It’s a battle for first place in the NFC North between two streaking teams. Jared Goff is playing at an MVP level and the Lions have won five straight games. Their defense, however, is missing Aidan Hutchinson. They’re not pressuring quarterbacks enough without him. Jordan Love is banged-up again for Green Bay and is trying to play through a groin injury. The Packers have won four in a row and may need to rely more on Josh Jacobs’ running.
LIONS: 29-23
Indianapolis (4-4) at Minnesota (5-2)
Line: Vikings minus 5 1/2
Joe Flacco’s return to the starting lineup didn’t change the spread, but the Colts are a bigger threat with him than Anthony Richardson right now. The Vikings have lost two in a row and their staunch defense has been leaky. Sam Darnold has posted a passer rating above 100 in six of Minnesota’s seven games. If the Vikings can avoid the pre-snap penalties that have plagued them in the two losses, they’ll have success against the 28th-ranked defense.
VIKINGS: 27-24
Last week: Straight up: 11-5. Against spread: 8-8.
Overall: Straight up: 83-40. Against spread: 65-56-2.
Prime-time: Straight up: 18-10. Against spread: 13-14-1.
Best Bet: Straight up: 6-2. Against spread: 6-2.
Upset Special: Straight up: 6-2. Against spread: 6-2.
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