Tampa Bay (3-1) at Atlanta (2-2)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT, Amazon Prime Video
BetMGM NFL Odds: Falcons by 1 1/2
Series record: Buccaneers lead 31-30.
Against the spread: Buccaneers 3-1, Falcons 1-3.
Last meeting: Buccaneers defeated Falcons 29-25 on Dec. 10, 2023, in Atlanta.
Last week: Buccaneers beat Eagles 33-16; Falcons beat Saints 26-24.
Buccaneers offense: overall (16), rush (24), pass (10), scoring (10).
Buccaneers defense: overall (19), rush (22), pass (16), scoring (11).
Falcons offense: overall (20), rush (20), pass (18), scoring (21).
Falcons defense: overall (20), rush (25), pass (13), scoring (15).
Turnover differential: Buccaneers plus-2, Falcons minus-1.
Buccaneers player to watch
WR Mike Evans became Tampa Bay’s all-time leading scorer last week and has compiled some impressive numbers against Atlanta. In 18 games against the Falcons, Evans has 92 receptions for 1,407 yards and 11 touchdowns. Among active players, it’s the fourth-most receiving yards against an opponent. Evans is first with 1,480 against Carolina, followed by Travis Kelce, who has 1,472 against Denver and 1,424 vs. Las Vegas. Evans was limited in practice during the short week by knee and calf issues.
Falcons player to watch
QB Kirk Cousins has logged two game-winning drives despite uneven production through his first four games after signing a four-year, $180 million contract that included $100 million in guaranteed money. Cousins has four TD passes and four interceptions and couldn’t produce a touchdown as the Falcons leaned on their defense and special teams to beat the Saints. Most troubling is the Falcons’ continued inability to convert third downs. The Falcons were 4 of 11 on third down against the Saints and are 10 of 38 (26.3%) on the season. The spotlight is on Cousins to generate more offense against Tampa Bay.
Key matchup
Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson vs. Tampa Bay run defense. Robinson has been limited to a combined 59 yards on the ground the past two weeks and has 224 yards and one touchdown through four games. The Falcons rank only 20th in the league in rushing while Tampa Bay ranks 22nd against the run, allowing 131.5 yards per game. Tyler Allgeier gave Atlanta’s run game a boost last week by gaining 60 yards on only eight carries. Bucs LB Lavonte David and the run defense could put more pressure on Cousins by limiting Robinson and Allgeier.
Key injuries
The Buccaneers have a lengthy injury report, with RT Luke Goedeke (concussion), S Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot), DL Calijah Kancey (calf) and WRs Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and Trey Palmer (concussion) all ruled out. In addition, LB SirVocea Dennis (shoulder) was placed on injured reserve. Atlanta LB Troy Andersen, who has led the team in tackles the past two games, won’t be able to play because of a knee injury. The Falcons signed LB Rashaan Evans, an Atlanta starter in 2022, to the practice squad. OT Kaleb McGary (knee) is expected to return after missing last week’s victory over New Orleans.
Series notes
The NFC South rivalry remained difficult to predict last season when each team won on the other’s home field. The Falcons won the first game of the series on Nov. 27, 1977, with a 17-0 victory at Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have had the upper hand in recent years, winning six of the past eight games. The Falcons are 3-0 in prime-time games against the Buccaneers.
Stats and stuff
Falcons first-year coach Raheem Morris was Tampa Bay’s coach from 2009-11. … The Buccaneers have won the past three NFC South titles. The Falcons’ most recent division championship came in 2016, when they advanced to the Super Bowl. … Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is fourth in the NFL in passer rating (106.9), second in TD passes (eight) and fourth in passing yards (984). In three games against the Falcons, he’s thrown for 635 yards and six TDs vs. one interception. … In his past 11 games against Atlanta, WR Chris Godwin has 70 catches, 45 of them for first downs. He’s averaged 13.8 yard per reception and scored nine TDs. … Mayfield leads the Bucs with two rushing TDs. … The Bucs defense limited the Eagles to 227 yards. They sacked Jalen Hurts six times after only getting opposing QBs on the ground two times through the first three games of the season. … PK Chase McLaughlin has made 25 consecutive regular-season field goals. … Falcons PK Younghoe Koo set a Mercedes-Benz Stadium record with his game-winning 58-yard field goal, the longest in the history of the facility, to beat the Saints last week. Koo has made each of his nine field goals this season. … WR Darnell Mooney leads Atlanta with 225 receiving yards on 15 catches. Mooney also leads the team with 15 yards per catch. … Andersen’s 16 tackles last week were the most in the NFL for Week 4.
Fantasy tip
While Mooney has gained attention as a surprise to many, WR Drake London remains Cousins’ favorite target. London has a team-leading 20 catches for 200 yards and two TDs. With the Falcons under pressure to jump-start their attack after the offense was held out of the end zone against the Saints, London could be a smart start in fantasy leagues.
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