On behalf of fantasy football players everywhere, can we get some touchdowns?
Please?
Teams averaged just 20.6 points per game last week — the second lowest-scoring Week 1 in the past 13 seasons.
Fantasy players felt that.
Only seven quarterbacks had 20-plus points — the fewest in a Week 1 since 2017. Unless you had Tyreek Hill (39 half-PPR points) or the Dallas D/ST (37), your fantasy team likely didn’t put up a ton of points.
Still, we saw some receivers excel (hello, Brandon Aiyuk) and got some clarity on running back timeshares (welcome back, Tyler Allgeier).
We witnessed struggles from the tight end position (shoutout Hunter Henry and Hayden Hurst for being the only tight ends to eclipse double digits) as well as the return of the late-round quarterback (maybe).
So, while Week 1 lacked offense, it didn’t lack surprises.
Those surprises make start/sit decisions even more critical heading into Week 2. These decisions should, in theory, get easier as the season goes on and we gather more information.
For Week 2, while we don’t have much of a sample to work off, we at least have something.
Hopefully, you scoured the waiver wire well enough that you have a solid bench and there are at least some starting spots up for debate. For those circumstances, I have you covered.
Every week I’ll be listing out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more start-worthy.
For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire ’s projection model.
These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback — though, the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.
Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.
All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Jalen Hurts (PHI)
— Patrick Mahomes (KC)
— Josh Allen (BUF)
— Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
— Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
— Lamar Jackson (BAL)
— Justin Herbert (LAC)
— Joe Burrow (CIN)
— Justin Fields (CHI)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Anthony Richardson (IND) delivered in Week 1 and finished as the QB4 despite having to leave the game after being tackled on the 1-yard line. If he had a second rushing touchdown, we would be talking about him as a set-and-forget QB1. Richardson’s rushing upside makes him really hard to sit unless you have a clear-cut No. 1 option, and a matchup in Houston isn’t a bad spot.
— Daniel Jones (NYG) struggled mightily in Week 1, but he’s rarely played well against Dallas. While the Cardinals defense did a good job against Sam Howell last week, they’re not the same quality as the Cowboys D. Jones is the QB10 for Week 2, according to numberFire’s model, and his rushing upside gives him a lot of intrigue in a bounce-back spot.
— Jared Goff (DET) is about as safe as they come. Even in a tough matchup at Arrowhead, Goff delivered a solid 14.0 fantasy points. Considering how badly Seattle got handled by the Rams wideouts, Goff is an easy start.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Dak Prescott (DAL) didn’t have a great fantasy game in Week 1, but the Cowboys didn’t need him to do much in a 40-0 blowout. He’ll likely be asked to do a lot more this week, but it’s hard to get excited about his matchup considering the Jets just held Josh Allen to 12.0 points.
— Deshaun Watson (CLE) finished as the QB5 in fantasy last week but it wasn’t pretty. Wet conditions resulted in an ugly game for both quarterbacks in Cleveland, but Watson still averaged the third-most fantasy points per drop-back (0.56) despite posting the fifth-lowest EPA per drop-back (-0.42) among starters. His rushing upside gives him a solid floor, although a Monday matchup with Pittsburgh isn’t ideal.
— Jordan Love (GB) is going to play his way into starting consideration if he keeps this up, but for now, he’s locked in as a top quarterback streamer. Love finished as the QB3 in Week 1 and checked in second with 0.51 EPA per drop-back. Unfortunately, he doesn’t draw Chicago every week, but playing on turf against a suspect Atlanta defense still leaves plenty of room for fantasy success. He’s worth a look.
— Mac Jones (NE) at least deserves a mention after his 25.1-point, QB2 finish in Week 1. No, the Patriots aren’t going to throw 54 times every game, and, when they don’t, his fantasy stock will take a hit as he ranked just 12th in fantasy points per drop-back (0.43). Still, there’s a chance the Pats are facing a negative game script yet again considering how sharp Miami’s offense looked last week. Another high-volume game isn’t out of the question.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Kirk Cousins (MIN) is difficult to trust against good defenses. Sure, he did just throw for 344 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, Mac Jones did just put up big stats, 316 yards and three touchdowns, against the Eagles en route to a QB2 finish (25.1 points). However, Cousins also turned the ball over three times in a loss to the Bucs. He threw three interceptions against Philly last season. He scored only 11.8 fantasy points in that game. I’d rather sit Cousins on Thursday night.
— Geno Smith (SEA) disappointed in Week 1, finishing as the QB25 despite a seemingly favorable matchup. While I like Smith to bounce back at some point, there are too many quality quarterbacks out there to warrant using Smith against a Lions defense that held Patrick Mahomes in check last week.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Christian McCaffrey (SF)
— Nick Chubb (CLE)
— Tony Pollard (DAL)
— Austin Ekeler (LAC)
— Josh Jacobs (LV)
— Saquon Barkley (NYG)
— Bijan Robinson (ATL)
— Derrick Henry (TEN)
— Travis Etienne (JAX)
— Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
— Kenneth Walker III (SEA)
— Aaron Jones (GB)
— Joe Mixon (CIN)
— Breece Hall (NYJ)
— David Montgomery (DET)
— Raheem Mostert (MIA)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) didn’t win you the week in fantasy, but he flashed the potential that made him a first-round pick. Despite playing just 27.5% of snaps, Gibbs finished with only 14 fewer total yards than David Montgomery. The two receptions were encouraging to see, and he’ll likely continue to get more work as the season goes on. Gibbs should be in your lineup as we await his true breakout.
— James Cook (BUF) is clearly Buffalo’s go-to back, dominating the rushing share (67%) and finishing second among all Bills in target share (15%). The Bills have the highest implied team total of the week (28.25), so Cook has a good chance to get in on the scoring fun. There’s almost no way you aren’t starting him versus Las Vegas.
— Tyler Allgeier (ATL) has to be in lineups if he’s going to command this much work. Allgeier finished with 15 rush attempts to Bijan’s 10.
— Brian Robinson (WSH) took hold of the Washington backfield in Week 1, finishing with a 72% rushing share, a 43% red zone rush share, and adding two targets for good measure. Though he wasn’t especially efficient (36.8% success rate), the second-year back has enough volume to warrant a start even in a tough matchup with the Broncos.
— Miles Sanders (CAR) had 18 carries and tied for second on the Panthers with a 19.4% target share. That guaranteed volume makes him worth a start versus New Orleans.
— James Conner (ARI) received a good amount of volume, pacing Arizona with a 58% rush share and tying for second with a 16.7% target share. On the field for 82.8% of snaps, he’s one of the safest volume plays on the board and has some touchdown upside against the Giants rush defense.
— Javonte Williams (DEN) didn’t miss a beat in his return to action, leading the Denver backfield with a 62% rush share and garnering a healthy 16% target share. A solid Washington front limits his upside, but Williams has RB1 talent and needs to be in lineups almost every week now that we know the volume is there.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Joshua Kelley (LAC) is worth some FLEX consideration after Austin Ekeler injured his ankle in the second half of Week 1. Kelly stepped up in a huge way, finishing with the second-highest rush EPA per carry (0.38) en route to 15.1 points (RB10). Ekeler’s health is something to monitor throughout the week. If he’s out for Sunday, Kelley is a lineup lock, but if Ekeler is active, you can probably find more guaranteed volume elsewhere.
— Rachaad White (TB) didn’t look great in Week 1, finishing with the second-fewest rushing yards over expectation (-38.4) and accounting for just 5.9 fantasy points. Still, he dominated the rushing share (57%) and had both of Tampa Bay’s red zone rush attempts. That volume and a matchup against Chicago puts him on the FLEX radar.
— Najee Harris (PIT) did not look like a third- or fourth-round pick in Week 1. Though he outrushed Jaylen Warren in attempts 6-3, Warren was targeted six times compared to Harris’ two as a receiver. Pittsburgh’s offense as a whole struggled in Week 1, so better days are on the horizon. This week, however, I’m not thrilled about starting him against an improved Browns defense.
— Dameon Pierce (HOU) was quiet in Week 1, but at the Ravens with a rookie under center is a tough spot. Pierce still had a 61% rush share, and Houston clearly preferred him to Devin Singletary (39% rush share). Indy’s rush defense is decent, so I’m not optimistic about his Week 2 outlook, although he should improve on last week.
— Jamaal Williams (NO) had a ton of volume last week, rushing 18 times and getting two targets. He turned that into just 6.2 fantasy points thanks to averaging 2.5 yards per attempt. His 16.7% rush success rate was poor, and there isn’t a ton of upside even against the Carolina defense. That said, he’s probably a safe bet for at least 15 touches, which warrants starting consideration with injuries stacking up across the board.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Cam Akers (LAR) salvaged his debut with a second-half touchdown, but we can’t be feeling great about his usage. Akers saw just a 33.3% snap share, compared to 66.7% for Kyren Williams. While Akers still received 22 carries, he mustered only 29 yards — good for a league-low -40.8 rushing yards over expectation. On the wrong end of a timeshare and against the 49ers, Akers is an easy sit in Week 2.
— Kyren Williams (LAR) may have come out ahead of the LA timeshare in Week 1, but I’m not excited to start him this week. He’s an interesting play over the long haul this season and absolutely worth an add, but a matchup with the 49ers is tough. Keep him stashed on your bench.
— Alexander Mattison (MIN) had just 11 rushing attempts despite dominating the rush share (69%). His four targets were nice, but with how much the Vikings threw, that ended up ranking fifth on the team. There’s not a lot of upside or guaranteed work with Minnesota a 7.0-point underdog against a stingy Eagles defense.
— Isiah Pacheco (KC) and the Chiefs’ backfield as a whole can be sat until further notice. Though Pacheco saw the highest snap share (47%) in their running back room, he outrushed Clyde Edwards-Helaire only 8-6 in attempts. Jacksonville has the second-ranked adjusted rush defense in the NFL, according to numberFire’s metrics, so I’m fine to avoid all three of KC’s backs in Week 2.
— Dalvin Cook (NYJ) doesn’t have much upside with Zach Wilson under center. Even with Cook’s 18% target share, there’s nothing to look forward to against one of the best defenses in the league.
— Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) will not play on Thursday — a real shame considering he dominated the rushing share (61%) and had the third-highest target share (13.3%) on the Eagles last week. There’s a chance one of D’Andre Swift, Boston Scott, or Rashaad Penny has a big game. Just play it safe and avoid all three backs.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Tyreek Hill (MIA)
— Justin Jefferson (MIN)
— Stefon Diggs (BUF)
— Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
— Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
— A.J. Brown (PHI)
— Davante Adams (LV)
— Calvin Ridley (JAX)
— Chris Olave (NO)
— CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
— DeVonta Smith (PHI)
— Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
— D.K. Metcalf (SEA)
— Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
— Keenan Allen (LAC)
— Mike Evans (TB)
— DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)
— Amari Cooper (CLE)
— Chris Godwin (TB)
— Tee Higgins (CIN)
— Deebo Samuel (SF)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Michael Thomas (NO) didn’t dominate in Week 1, but his usage was strong enough to warrant starting consideration going forward. While he finished with just 8.6 points (WR 38), Thomas garnered a 24.2% target share and paced the Saints receivers in both snap share (79.7%) and route participation (94.6%). He’s a starting option in a matchup with the Jaycee Horn-less Panthers.
— Zay Flowers (BAL) looked the part of a future star in his first NFL game. Flowers dominated the Baltimore passing game with nine receptions (47.6% target share), four red zone targets, and even a red zone rush attempt for good measure. The potential return of Mark Andrews will surely reduce his workload, but it would be almost impossible to sit Flowers after Week 1.
— D.J. Moore (CHI) had a forgettable debut with Chicago, finishing with just two receptions for 25 yards. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Bears against the Packers. I’m still bullish on Moore considering the preseason buzz and his own track record. A better matchup against the Tampa Bay secondary should have him looking more like the WR2 we drafted him to be.
— Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) wasn’t someone I was thrilled about heading into the season given last season’s struggles and a rookie QB. If Week 1 was any indication, Pittman could very well be a WR2 the rest of the season. He turned eight catches (28.2% target share), 97 yards, and a touchdown into a WR7 finish and is clearly the top pass-catcher in Indy. Temper expectations a bit in a tougher matchup, but I’d be hard-pressed to sit Pittman after last week.
— Mike Williams (LAC) didn’t have a crazy Week 1, but still finished with four receptions for 45 yards. Though he saw only a 16.1% target share, he was on the field for 76.3% of snaps. Williams would get an even bigger boost if Ekeler is limited, but I’m starting him regardless in a matchup with Tennessee’s 27th-ranked adjusted pass defense.
— Jahan Dotson (WSH) may not have had the breakout many were hoping for, but he still turned in a solid line and didn’t hurt you like some of the other Week 1 options. Though he finished with just 40 yards, Dotson commanded a 24.1% target share and played a ton of snaps (86.2%). After seeing what Jakobi Meyers did to Denver’s secondary, I’m bullish on Dotson yet again in Week 2.
— Christian Watson (GB) didn’t play in Week 1, and his status is up in the air for Week 2. If he plays, he’s a must-start given how good Love looked last week.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Garrett Wilson (NYJ) takes a huge hit in fantasy with Zach Wilson now at the helm. He salvaged Week 1 with a stellar touchdown catch, and while a 29% target share is encouraging, last season’s performance with Wilson is hard to forget. I don’t think you can bench him, but a matchup with Dallas is the last thing fantasy managers want to see.
— George Pickens (PIT) didn’t have a huge line in Week 1, but ranked second on the team in target share (15.6%) and led the way with a 25.7% air yards share. Most encouraging was his 88.5% snap share, which paced Pittsburgh skill position players. With Diontae Johnson expected to miss a few weeks, Pickens’ role in this offense can continue to grow, starting on Monday night.
— Jordan Addison (MIN) had a heck of an NFL debut, finishing as the WR17 thanks to four receptions, 61 yards, and a score. Though he was on the field for only 55.6% of snaps and had a less-than-ideal 13.6% target share, there should be enough passing volume to warrant a start.
— Elijah Moore (CLE) had an encouraging Cleveland debut. Moore had just a 69.4% snap share, but was a focal point when he was out there. He tied Amari Cooper with a 24.1% target share and even had two rushing attempts. It’s clear the Browns are committed to using him in a variety of ways, which puts him firmly on the FLEX radar.
— Courtland Sutton (DEN) caught only four passes in Week 1 and commanded just a 15.6% target share. A touchdown saved his fantasy day, and his two red zone targets are something fantasy managers will be banking on again in Week 2. There’s not a ton of upside against a solid Washington pass defense, but you could do a lot worse.
— Gabriel Davis (BUF) A tough matchup kept him in check on Monday, but Davis’ numbers were encouraging. Though he saw a 10% target share, he saw a 23% air yards share and was their only downfield threat outside of Stefon Diggs. The matchup is way easier this week, and with Buffalo’s 28.5 implied team total, Davis is a high-upside play in Week 2.
— Romeo Doubs (GB) had a solid Week 1, tying for the team lead with an 18.5% target share. His red zone work (team-leading two targets) was highly encouraging and bodes well for his fantasy outlook going forward. Christian Watson’s possible return complicates things a bit.
— Zay Jones (JAX) is the WR2 in Jacksonville. Lining up on the opposite side of Calvin Ridley, Jones finished second on the team in target share (21.9%) and made one of the best touchdown catches of the week. While playing a team-leading 88.4% of snaps, Jones had four targets of 10-plus yards and amassed a stellar 34.6% air yards share. He’s a borderline must-start despite a tough matchup with Kansas City.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Drake London (ATL) cannot be started except in the most dire of circumstances. London had a single target in Week 1 despite playing 89.6% of snaps and running a route on 90.9% of those snaps.
— Terry McLaurin (WSH) has a tough matchup with Patrick Surtain II, and nothing from Week 1 has me optimistic he can succeed this week. McLaurin finished fourth on the team with a 13.8% target share despite being out there for a team-leading 89.2% of snaps. Fade, fade, fade in Week 2.
— Tyler Lockett (SEA) goes where Geno Smith goes. In Week 1, they both went to the land of fantasy irrelevance. Lockett finished just fourth on Seattle in target share (16.7%) — though he had a stellar 45.8% air yards share. Matching up with a surprisingly solid Detroit pass defense doesn’t give me any optimism for Lockett’s fantasy prospects.
— Christian Kirk (JAX) has been relegated to a strict slot role with the emergence of Calvin Ridley. He logged a mere 9.4% target share (fifth on the team) in Week 1 and played just 60.9% of snaps. There just isn’t enough upside to start him in a fairly tough matchup with Kansas City.
— Marquise Brown (ARI) had a measly 16.7% target share on one of the least-productive offenses in the league. Don’t drop him but certainly don’t start him until further notice.
— Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell (LAR) were two of the biggest surprises in fantasy last week. Nacua did his best Cooper Kupp impression, commanding an absurd 40.5% target share and amassing 119 yards. Atwell was right behind him, finishing with 119 yards on a 21.6% target share. Both need to be rostered, but consider their sub-80% snap shares and tough Week 2 matchup with San Francisco.
TIGHT END
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Travis Kelce (KC)
— T.J. Hockenson (MIN)
— Mark Andrews (BAL)
— Darren Waller (NYG)
— George Kittle (SF)
— Evan Engram (JAX)
— Dallas Goedert (PHI)
— David Njoku (CLE)
— Kyle Pitts (ATL)
Tier 2: Probable starters
— Hunter Henry (NE) is one of the top tight end streamers this week. He finished as the TE1 in Week 1 thanks to snagging five receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown. Henry had just an 11.1% target share and could be game-script dependent, though it helps that the Patriots take on the Dolphins this week. He is a decent bet to score a touchdown, which is all you need to be fantasy-relevant at tight end.
— Sam LaPorta (DET) needed all of one NFL game to warrant starting consideration. LaPorta didn’t dominate by any means but racked up a solid five receptions for 39 yards. On the field for 82.6% of snaps, LaPorta already looks like one of the top options in Detroit’s passing offense. Seattle’s pass defense struggled in Week 1, so he deserves starting consideration.
Tier 3: On the fence
— Luke Musgrave (GB) looked really good in his NFL debut. Musgrave caught just three passes but two of those went for 20-plus yards, and he finished with 50 yards. Tied for the third-highest target share (14.8%) on the team, his 75% snap share should only continue to climb — though Christian Watson returning could take some of his targets.
— Dalton Kincaid (BUF) was yet another rookie tight end to play a ton in his debut. Kincaid had 10% target share, but ran just one fewer route than Dawson Knox and had an 80% snap share. Buffalo led the league in 12 personnel in Week 1, and with Kincaid’s ability to line up in the slot, he should see a ton of opportunities this week. He’s a solid, high-upside play.
— Jake Ferguson (DAL) quietly had the most red zone targets (five) in the league last week, which immediately puts him in the starting conversation at tight end. He won’t lead the Cowboys in target share every game, but with the Jets stout secondary in town, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Ferguson get a similar opportunity share in Week 2.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
— Pat Freiermuth (PIT) got banged up in Week 1, but even if he was fully healthy, I wouldn’t feel great about his Week 2 prospects. The Steelers struggled on offense, and although Freirmuth salvaged his day with a touchdown, it’s hard to trust him in a tough matchup with a tough-looking Cleveland defense.
— Tyler Higbee (LAR) was outshined by the Rams’ young receivers in Week 1, finishing a distant fourth in target share (8.1%). There’s no reason to think that will improve in a tough matchup with San Francisco. He’s an easy sit.
— Dalton Schultz (HOU) had a 10.3% target share in Week 1 despite playing 82% of snaps. C.J. Stroud looked decent enough, but there isn’t any upside with Schultz commanding so few looks.
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