Week 14 is either the most or least important fantasy football week to date.
If your postseason fate is already sealed (for better or worse), who you start this week doesn’t really matter. Rock a tight end in your flex, buy into the Joe Flacco redemption tour, do something crazy.
But for those of us who still need to win — for playoff purposes or to avoid a last-place punishment — Week 14 is everything.
Only the Cardinals and Commanders are on bye, so there aren’t major holes to fill this week.
That means you likely have a full roster to pick starters from. In other words, your team’s fate is entirely in your hands.
But don’t sweat it, that’s what this piece is for.
Every week I list out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more start-worthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire ’s projection model.
These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback — though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.
Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.
All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Dak Prescott (DAL)
— Josh Allen (BUF)
— Jalen Hurts (PHI)
— Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
— Patrick Mahomes (KC)
— Justin Fields (CHI)
— Lamar Jackson (BAL)
— Brock Purdy (SF)
Tier 2: Probable starters
Justin Herbert (LAC). Herbert had one of his worst outings of the season against the Pats, completing fewer than 60% of attempts and totaling just 8.0 points. Still, he’s averaged 22.2 points at So-Fi this season while the Broncos have allowed the third-most adjusted fantasy points per drop-back and the fourth-highest passing success rate to opposing QBs. Herbert remains a QB1.
C.J. Stroud (HOU). Stroud was merely OK last week with 16.1 points, but he notably lost one of his top pass catchers in Tank Dell. While that doesn’t completely eliminate Stroud’s value going forward, it doesn’t help. That’s especially true this week when Stroud travels to take on a Jets defense allowing the second-fewest adjusted fantasy points per drop-back and the third-fewest passing yards (176.6) per game. He’s proven enough to still be a QB1, but Stroud’s ceiling isn’t high this week.
Russell Wilson (DEN). Another week, another solid outing from Russell Wilson. With last week’s 18.8-point effort, Wilson is now the QB13 since their Week 9 bye, averaging 17.2 points per game. Next up? A game against a Chargers D allowing the second-most passing yards per game (265.8). Wilson is hurt by Denver’s 28th-ranked pass rate over expectation (PROE), but the matchup is good enough that he belongs in the QB1 conversation.
Jordan Love (GB). Jordan Love just handled the highly touted Kansas City secondary and has averaged 22.5 points per game over the past four weeks, fifth among QBs. He’s put up the fourth-most yards per (286.5) and third-most “expected points added” (EPA) per drop-back over that span. The Giants are coming off a bye and their secondary has looked better the past two games, but Love’s recent play has him firmly on the QB1 radar.
Tier 3: On the fence
Jared Goff (DET). Jared Goff has scored between 16 and 22 points in every game since Detroit’s Week 9 bye. This week’s matchup is good on paper — Chicago is 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs — but I’m not convinced Goff’s a slam dunk. Although there are still home/road split concerns, the Bears D is also fresh off their bye and had allowed just 12.8 QB fantasy points per game over their past seven. A chance for snow and high winds doesn’t do Goff any favors, but you could do worse.
Baker Mayfield (TB). Baker Mayfield is coming off a 10.9-point outing that watched him complete 48% of his passes, but I’m optimistic he’ll find more success this week. While Atlanta has struggled against QBs (26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed), they’re also poor at pressuring QBs (27th in pressure rate). Mayfield had 17.2 points back in Week 7. A similar performance is well within reason.
Jake Browning (CIN). Can’t say I saw that Jake Browning performance coming. Browning completed 87% of his passes for 354 yards in Jacksonville last week, finishing as the QB4 on the week (25.7 points). He’s looked competent in his first two starts and has a strong group of skill position players to work with. That bodes well for his fantasy stock going forward, especially if Cincinnati is going to let him approach 40 attempts. Indy’s been a neutral QB matchup, so we’re safe to ride Browning at home.
Joe Flacco (CLE). The Super Bowl 47 MVP can still sling it. Joe Flacco attempted 44 passes and had 531 air yards in his Cleveland debut, totaling 17.2 points in the process. He only completed 52% of them, but what do we care about efficiency? Jacksonville has allowed the third-most passing yards per game and was just bombarded by Jake Browning. That’s enough to make him a sneaky quarterback streamer in Week 14.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
Trevor Lawrence (JAX). It’s a real shame that Trevor Lawrence got hurt on Monday because he’d been dominant until the injury. He had 25.1 points before leaving — his third consecutive 25-point game. He’s looking like a game-time decision for this week, so I’m willing to sit him with playoff spots on the line. Nothing about an injured quarterback facing Cleveland’s second-ranked pass defense is enticing for fantasy prospects.
Josh Dobbs (MIN). It’s difficult to know where we’re at with Joshua Dobbs. Before Minnesota’s bye, Dobbs threw for just 185 yards in a home loss to Chicago, prompting Kevin O’Connell to comment on a QB evaluation. Dobb is scheduled to start in Week 14, but he may have a short run. That makes him difficult to trust if you need a win to make the playoffs, especially since Vegas is a respectable 14th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.
Geno Smith (SEA). I (wrongfully) faded Geno Smith last week, but he’s a sit for me again versus San Francisco. The 49ers are a different defense than the Cowboys. They’re third in adjusted fantasy points allowed, fifth in EPA per drop-back, and fourth in pressure rate. He only managed 8.3 points against them at home two weeks ago, so it’s hard to have confidence Smith fairs much better on the road.
RUNNING BACKS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Christian McCaffrey (SF)
— Alvin Kamara (NO)
— Isiah Pacheco (KC)
— Kyren Williams (LAR)
— Rachaad White (TB)
— Josh Jacobs (LV)
— De’Von Achane (MIA)
— David Montgomery (DET)
— Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)
— Travis Etienne (JAX)
— Bijan Robinson (ATL)
— Austin Ekeler (LAC)
— Zack Moss (IND)
— Tony Pollard (DAL)
— Raheem Mostert (MIA)
— Saquon Barkley (NYG)
— Derrick Henry (TEN)
— Javonte Williams (DEN)
— James Cook (BUF)
— Breece Hall (NYJ)
Tier 2: Probable starters
Joe Mixon (CIN). Joe Mixon was the RB1 last week (26.7 points), but backup Chase Brown (nine carries for 61 yards) did generate some buzz in his limited role. While Mixon is still the clear-cut starter, there’s at least competition for carries in this backfield now. Still, the Colts have allowed the third-most adjusted fantasy points per carry to opposing RBs, so Mixon should be locked and loaded in your starting lineup.
D’Andre Swift (PHI). It’s been a rough few weeks for D’Andre Swift. He’s been held to single-digit points in three of his past four games and just had his lowest snap rate (42%) since Week 1. Backup Kenneth Gainwell has been a consistent threat to Swift’s passing game usage, so it’s fair to anticipate another split backfield when they’re 3.5-point underdogs to Dallas. Still, the upside of Swift in this offense is too great to leave on your bench.
Jerome Ford (CLE). Jerome Ford continues to be a model of consistency, having scored between 9.9 and 12.7 fantasy points each of the past five weeks. His snap rate (51%) and adjusted opportunities (15) dipped last week, but he’s still the primary receiving back. Although there isn’t a ton of upside given the game’s 30.5-point total and Jacksonville’s decent run defense, Ford’s established a nice floor. He’s a quality RB2 or flex.
Gus Edwards (BAL). Gus Edwards has to score to be fantasy-relevant, he’s yet to eclipse 6.0 points in a game he didn’t get in the end zone. Before their bye, both Keaton Mitchell and Justice Hill out-snapped Edwards, and Hill even got all three red zone rush attempts. While that makes him difficult to trust against a middle-of-the-pack Rams run defense, there’s no denying his multi-touchdown upside. The floor is nonexistent, but Edwards’ ceiling is sky high.
Zach Charbonnet (SEA). Zach Charbonnet had to leave last week’s game. Still, there’s a chance Kenneth Walker returns this week, and the matchup is tough even if Charbonnet is healthy and the primary back. He managed just 7.8 points against San Francisco two weeks ago, so it’s hard to get too excited about him this week despite a healthy 21.7 adjusted opportunities per game the past three weeks. He’s a shaky RB2, but stay glued to Seattle’s injury report.
Jaylen Warren (PIT). After seemingly breaking out in Week 11, Jaylen Warren has turned in a pair of quiet games fantasy-wise. His workload (17 adjusted opportunities per game) has remained strong, but this is still a split backfield, one in which Warren often holds the short end of the stick. While New England is third in rushing EPA per carry and fourth in fantasy points allowed to RBs over the past six weeks, Warren’s stellar workload keeps him in the RB2 conversation.
Najee Harris (PIT). Najee Harris has averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game since Pittsburgh’s Week 6 bye — more than Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler, and teammate Jaylen Warren. He’s averaged 19.7 adjusted opportunities per game and received 61% of the red zone rushing attempts over that span, so he’s established a pretty sound floor. This week’s matchup is tough and by no means is Harris a flashy start, but he’s guaranteed volume and has a better chance to fall in the end zone than most.
Tier 3: On the fence
Ezekiel Elliott (NE). Ezekiel Elliott is operating as the No. 1 back for a 2-10 Patriots team. With Rhamondre Stevenson possibly sidelined, Elliott could wind up being fantasy-relevant down the stretch. Last week was the first time Elliott played more than 50% of New England’s snaps, and he delivered 11.2 points off 27 adjusted opportunities. He’s a volume-based start against Pittsburgh’s middle-of-the-pack run defense.
Devin Singletary (HOU). From Weeks 9-12, Devin Singletary played 81% of snaps and averaged 13.8 points per game, good for 13th among RBs. Last week, his snap rate went down to 44% and he managed just 4.5 fantasy points. It appears the Texans still have a role for Dameon Pierce, so it’s risky to start Singletary against a Jets defense allowing the sixth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR). Chuba Hubbard has retaken the Carolina backfield, having played 64% of snaps and put up 40.1 points the past two weeks. He’s averaged 24.5 adjusted opportunities per game the past two weeks — enough to consider Hubbard against New Orleans. Over the past six weeks, the Saints have allowed the fourth-highest EPA per carry and the seventh-most rushing yards over expectation per attempt. It’s hard to trust any part of this offense, but the volume is there.
Alexander Mattison (MIN). Alexander Mattison has a nice matchup this week. Vegas ranks 27th in EPA per attempt and 31st in rushing success rate, and it’s allowed the eighth-most adjusted fantasy points per carry to opposing RBs. It’s fair to wonder if Minnesota will give Ty Chandler a bigger role out of the bye, and if Justin Jefferson’s return will impact Mattison’s carries. Still, he’s hovering around a 60% snap rate and approaching 15 adjusted opportunities per game. In a good matchup, that’s start-able.
A.J. Dillon (GB). A.J. Dillon rumbled for 73 yards on 18 carries last week, earning 9.2 points. That marked the fourth straight game he was between 8.0 and 10 points. Although the reliability is nice, he’s only eclipsed double-digits twice all season and has a high of 13.6. I get his draw against the Giants — they’re 21st in RB rush success rate and 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed — but it’s hard to start him knowing there’s not much upside.
Tyjae Spears (TEN). With Derrick Henry leaving last week early, Tyjae Spears wound up playing a career-high 65% of snaps. He turned 28 adjusted opportunities into 88 yards and 10.8 points, while his 19% target share was tied for second highest on the team. Henry didn’t enter concussion protocol which likely relegates Spears to his backup role. Still, Tennessee is a 13.5-point underdog this week so he could still provide value as a pass catcher.
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI). Kenneth Gainwell is in consideration if you’re desperate this week. Gainwell ran a route on 47% of drop-backs against the 49ers and turned a 14.3% target share into 14 adjusted opportunities. Considering Philly is a 3.5-point underdog, there should be more pass-catching work for Gainwell. There’s at least a floor here.
Roschon Johnson (CHI). If you’re feeling lucky, I don’t mind Roschon Johnson this week. Roschon out-snapped Khalil Herbert 51-15 in their final game before the bye, totaling 20 adjusted opportunities and 10 points in the process. There’s a chance D’Onta Foreman returns this week to further muddy up the Chicago backfield, but if he remains out Johnson could produce against Detroit. The Lions are 22nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed per carry and 15th per RB target.
Keaton Mitchell (BAL). Baltimore’s bye week may have quieted the Keaton Mitchell hype, but I’m not about to forget that he paced the Baltimore backfield with a 46% snap rate in Week 12. Mitchell has posted an Achane-esque 59% rushing success rate and 0.44 rushing EPA per carry, so there’s a massive ceiling if his workload continues to expand. The Rams have numberFire’s sixth-worst schedule-adjusted run defense, giving Mitchell serious upside in Week 14.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
Miles Sanders (CAR). Miles Sanders has had his snap share dwindle in the wake of Carolina’s coaching changes. You can’t trust him in starting lineups.
Dameon Pierce (HOU). Dameon Pierce had a touchdown last week and played just four fewer snaps than Devin Singletary. He’s back on the fantasy radar, but should be glued to your bench until we get a better picture of what this backfield looks like.
Kareem Hunt (CLE). Kareem Hunt hasn’t scored in the past three weeks. As a result, he hasn’t finished inside the top 30 RBs in the past three weeks. There’s very little upside for Hunt in a game with a possible 30.5-point total.
Samaje Perine (DEN). Samaje Perine’s snap rate dipped to 19% last week, so we can’t trust him anywhere near our starting lineup.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Tyreek Hill (MIA)
— CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
— A.J. Brown (PHI)
— Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
— Justin Jefferson (MIN)
— Mike Evans (TB)
— Keenan Allen (LAC)
— Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
— Michael Pittman Jr. (IND)
— Deebo Samuel (SF)
— Chris Olave (NO)
— Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
— D.J. Moore (CHI)
— Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
— DeVonta Smith (PHI)
— Calvin Ridley (JAX)
— Puka Nacua (LAR)
— Nico Collins (HOU)
— Davante Adams (LV)
— Courtland Sutton (DEN)
Tier 2: Probable starters
Cooper Kupp (LAR). What’s happened to Cooper Kupp? After coming out of the gates with a pair of 100-yard, WR1 performances, Kupp has been held under 50 yards and outside the top 20 WRs each of the past seven weeks. While he’s still had a 21% target share over that span, a 7.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) leaves a lot to be desired. The Ravens have allowed the second-fewest adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing wide receivers, but Kupp’s upside is still too high to sit. Just temper expectations.
D.K. Metcalf (SEA). There’s the D.K. Metcalf we’d been looking for. Metcalf had six of eight targets for 134 yards and three touchdowns. Metcalf leads Seattle with 25.0% target and 44.2% air yard shares, so there’s no way you’re sitting him after last week. However, he did have his worst game of the season against the 49ers. Don’t expect another huge game, but I’d still anticipate a better outing than Thanksgiving.
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN). DeAndre Hopkins is coming off a five-catch, 75-yard performance that had him score his fifth touchdown as a Titan. With 12 targets last week, Hopkins has eclipsed a 30% target share in two of his past three games. His matchup is tough this week, Miami has allowed the third-fewest yards per route run since Jalen Ramsey’s return, but Hopkins’ consistent workload should keep him in starting lineups given the potentially negative game script.
Rashee Rice (KC). Rashee Rice is getting the kind of target share we’ve been begging for in fantasy. While he barely notched 10 points in Week 13, Rice had a target share north of 30% for the second straight week. He again set a season high for route participation (72%), and he’s led all KC wideouts in routes the past two games. Buffalo has allowed the ninth-most adjusted fantasy points per target and this game has a 48.8-point total. Rice needs to be in fantasy lineups.
Drake London (ATL). Ignore Drake London’s road struggles in Week 13. In Desmond Ridder’s five true road games, he’s averaged 231.2 yards and 31 pass attempts per game. That’s propelled London to 5.2 receptions, 71.3 yards, and 11.2 fantasy points per game on the back of a 24.3% target share at home. Over the past seven weeks, Tampa has allowed the 10th-highest target rate and third-most yards per route run to opposing wide receivers, paving the way for London to have a bounce-back effort.
Elijah Moore (CLE). Elijah Moore benefitted from Amari Cooper leaving the game early, but his chemistry with Joe Flacco was obvious. While they only connected on 4 of 12 targets (29% share), Moore had a season-high 83 yards. He had the most air yards of any player this season and more than doubled his aDOT (from 9.4 to 20.9). Jacksonville just got lit up by Jake Browning and is 21st in deep yards allowed per target. Feel confident starting Moore knowing he has the potential for double-digit targets.
Jayden Reed (GB). Jayden Reed’s target share (14%) and route rate (53%) dipped last week, but we shouldn’t fade the rookie quite yet. Christian Watson injured his hamstring and his status for Week 14 is unclear. That would likely funnel more work in Reed’s direction against a Giants secondary that’s struggled to contain opposing WRs all season. Keep an eye on Watson’s status, but if he’s out then Reed is a quality start.
Brandin Cooks (DAL). Brandin Cooks has turned back the clock over his past seven games, eclipsing double-digit fantasy points five times off 4.0 receptions, 4.7 targets, and 60.6 yards per game. Although he’s only surpassed a 15% target share twice over that span, he’s run hot with five touchdowns. It’s generally not good practice to chase scores, but you want a piece of this Dallas offense against numberFire’s 23rd-ranked pass defense.
Tier 3: On the fence
Garrett Wilson (NYJ). It doesn’t really matter whether Zach Wilson is under center for the Jets. Garrett Wilson’s fantasy value has remained pretty steady all season. He’s going to get close to a 30% target share, but that will only net around 10 fantasy points per game. While Houston has allowed the seventh-most adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing WRs, the surrounding pieces cap Wilson’s upside. He’s a WR3 or flex in Week 14.
Josh Downs (IND). Josh Downs didn’t have the breakout I was expecting last week, but his route participation remained steady at 78%. While that only resulted in a 12% target share, his time on the field should pay off more in Week 14. Cincinnati has bled production to the slot all season and they just gave up 61 yards and a score to Christian Kirk’s backup, Parker Washington. Downs has a ton of upside as a flex this week.
Diontae Johnson (PIT). I don’t think we can trust both of Pittsburgh’s receivers this week, so I’ll hitch my wagon to Diontae Johnson. Johnson caught a touchdown from Mitch Trubisky last week and I’d expect him to rely heavily on the veteran against the Pats. Johnson averaged 7.4 receptions, 10.2 targets (33% share), and 75.2 yards in the five games Trubisky played a majority of QB snaps last season. There’s not a ton of upside given the matchup, but Diontae should have a nice floor.
Romeo Doubs (GB). Romeo Doubs didn’t hear his name called much last week (five targets; 14% share) but he still managed to lead Green Bay with 72 receiving yards. He paced them with an 82% route rate and would get a bump if Christian Watson was unable to go this week. The Giants have allowed the highest target rate and the second-most yards per route run to WRs this season, putting Doubs on the WR3 radar in Week 14.
Chris Godwin (TB). Chris Godwin has been quiet lately fantasy-wise. He needed a rushing touchdown to net 7.9 points last week and hasn’t reached double digits since Week 8. He’s had just an 18% target share over that span, making him hard to trust this week even against a Falcons D allowing the 11th-most adjusted fantasy points per target to WRs.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA). Is Jaxon Smith-Njigba breaking out? Last week’s 29% target share would certainly suggest he is. While Smith-Njigba hasn’t reached double digits since Week 8, it’s not difficult to get behind a rookie fresh off an 11-target game. I’m worried about Seattle’s offense as a whole this week, but Smith-Njigba has upside.
Jerry Jeudy (DEN). Jerry Jeudy is entrenched as the No. 2 pass-catcher behind Courtland Sutton. That’s not a great role to be in given Denver’s 28th-ranked pass rate over expectation, but the matchup is great this week. The Chargers have allowed the seventh-most adjusted fantasy points per target and the third-highest aDOT to WRs this season, though I’d still be reluctant to start someone who has yet to finish as a top 24 receiver.
Tyler Lockett (SEA). Tyler Lockett watched Metcalf and Smith-Njigba have most of the fun last week, but Lockett still managed a 21.1% target share. Still, it’s becoming hard to trust him. Lockett only scored double-digit points just four times this season and now matches up with a San Francisco defense that held him to three receptions and 30 yards just two weeks ago. He’s an “only if I’m desperate” type of start this week.
Jonathan Mingo (CAR). There’s a ton of risk in starting Jonathan Mingo, but he’s not the worst dart throw. Mingo had a career-high 10 targets last week and he’s had 26% of Carolina’s looks over the past four weeks. That’s only translated to 1.12 yards per route run, but he’s in a dome this week. There’s some sneaky upside even against a solid New Orleans secondary.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
Adam Thielen (CAR). Adam Thielen is the WR46 since Carolina’s Week 7 bye. His target share has dipped to 18% in the past two weeks, so it’s fair to wonder if the Panthers are moving away from the 33-year-old. I’d be hard-pressed to risk starting him in the last week of the fantasy regular season.
Tee Higgins (CIN). The good news is that Tee Higgins ran a route on 83% of drop-backs in his first game since Week 9. The bad news is that Higgins only had an 8% target share and had 36 yards despite Jake Browning throwing for 354. Browning looked good enough that I’m not totally out on Higgins rest of the season, but starting him in Week 14 is a huge risk.
George Pickens (PIT). George Pickens could easily break out for a deep touchdown on Thursday, but his floor is way too low with Mitch Trubisky. He had a 13% target share and averaged 39 yards per game with Trubisky last season, so there’s little reason to trust Pickens against a stout Patriots defense. He can be confidently sat.
TIGHT END
Tier 1: Lineup locks
— Travis Kelce (KC)
— Sam LaPorta (DET)
— T.J. Hockenson (MIN)
— George Kittle (SF)
— Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
— Taysom Hill (NO)
— Jake Ferguson (DAL)
— Evan Engram (JAX)
Tier 2: Probable starters
Isaiah Likely (BAL). Isaiah Likely could be in for a breakout this week. He had a 20% target share in his first game without Mark Andrews and ran a route on 77% of drop-backs, third among all Baltimore pass catchers. Looking to this week, The Rams have been stout against receivers, but they’ve let up the most adjusted fantasy points per target to TEs. You want Likely’s upside in your lineup.
Kyle Pitts (ATL). Pitts totaled only 7.1 points last week, catching four passes for 51 yards. Pitts ran a route on 90% of drop-backs (his highest since Week 2) and had a 32% target share (his highest of the season). He’s paced Atlanta in target share two of the past three weeks and gets draws a Bucs defense that’s allowed the seventh-highest target rate to TEs. He’s worth a look.
Cole Kmet (CHI). Cole Kmet was busy in his second game with Justin Fields back. Kmet caught all seven targets for 43 yards, serving as the clear No. 2 option via a 22% target share. In Fields’ seven full healthy games, Kmet is averaging 4.7 receptions, 5.7 targets (21% share), and 42.1 yards per game. Detroit is tied for the second-most TE touchdowns allowed, so you want Kmet’s floor/ceiling combo in starting lineups.
Pat Freiermuth (PIT). Pat Freiermuth was quiet fantasy-wise after his Week 12 breakout, but still tied for the team lead in target share (19%). New England has been tough against TEs, ranking second in adjusted fantasy points allowed while allowing the eighth-lowest target rate. In the five games Mitch Trubisky took the majority of snaps last season, Freiermuth averaged 2.8 receptions, 5.4 targets (18% share), and 34.2 yards. That familiarity leaves him as a low-end TE1.
Tier 3: On the fence
Gerald Everett (LAC). With four receptions and 40-plus yards in consecutive games, Gerald Everett makes for a fine tight end streamer this week. He’s still topping out at a 14% target share even in good games, but the Chargers don’t have a ton of pass-catching options right now. The matchup is great, too. Denver has allowed the third-most adjusted fantasy points per target and the fifth-highest target rate to opposing tight ends.
David Njoku (CLE). With Joe Flacco throwing the ball downfield, David Njoku’s production cratered. Njoku still came in tied for second in target share (15%), but he managed just a pair of receptions for 17 yards. He now leads the league with 10 drops this season and is difficult to trust against a Jags defense that’s top 10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Tucker Kraft (GB). Tucker Kraft had the second-highest target share (17%) on the Packers last week, while Christian Watson (26%) left with another hamstring injury. Kraft has run a route on 73% of drop-backs without Luke Musgrave, so he’d be worth a flyer even if Watson was active. The Giants rank third in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs, but all Kraft needs is a touchdown and he’s had a 31% red zone target share the past two games.
Brevin Jordan (HOU). Brevin Jordan started in place of the injured Dalton Schultz last week, totaling 7.9 fantasy points. He ran a route on 67% of drop-backs and ranked second on the team with a 15% target share. With Tank Dell out, Jordan could be an interesting streamer if Schultz sits again this week. The Jets have allowed the most touchdowns (eight) and eighth-highest target rate (19.5%) to opposing tight ends.
Tier 4: Sit if possible
Cade Otton (TB). Cade Otton is un-startable — an odd thing to say about someone who ranks first in snap rate and third in route rate among tight ends. Otton failed to get a target for the first time all season last week, so I’m not sure how you can confidently start him. Atlanta actually leads the league in tight end target rate (24%) and is third in yards per route run allowed to the position, but the floor is too low to risk Otton’s minor upside.
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