How much draft stock have teams invested in quarterbacks since 2000, and how much have they gotten in return?
How much has each team invested in and gotten out of quarterbacks in the draft since 2000?
(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast
Fewest Net Draft Points: 1
st (51.4) Fewest NDP/Start: 1
st (0.87) Fewest NDP/Win: 2
Despite selecting a whopping nine quarterbacks since 2000 (tied for the most among any teams), the Broncos have managed to spend the fewest amount of net draft points, thanks almost entirely to the Jay Cutler trade. The team got back much more than it gave up to draft Cutler, helping offset not only his cost, but the bust that was Tim Tebow.
nd (1.73) Outlook: Cautiously optimistic
Brock Osweiler is the heir apparent in Denver, and while he went 5-2 last year, he leaned on the league’s best defense, throwing only 10 total touchdowns while being picked off six times. If Osweiler doesn’t prove to be the long-term answer, the Broncos may have to return to the draft.
(AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)
AP Photo/Jack Dempsey
Kansas City Chiefs
Fewest Net Draft Points: 2
nd (230.7) Fewest NDP/Start: 16
th (23.07) Fewest NDP/Win: N/A
The Chiefs have leaned mostly on trade acquisitions under center, drafting only three quarterbacks the last 16 years, fewest of any AFC team. But they haven’t gotten much bang for their buck, ranking in the middle of the pack in points spent per start, and effectively last in wins, as they haven’t gotten any.
This odd pattern should continue for the foreseeable future, with trade asset Alex Smith entrenched as the starter.
(AP Photo/Ed Zurga)
AP Photo/Ed Zurga
New Orleans Saints
Fewest Net Draft Points: 3
rd (291.3) Fewest NDP/Start: N/A
Fewest NDP/Win: N/A
The Saints might be the strangest team on the list. Drew Brees has been the franchise QB since 2006, after being signed in free agency, and appears to have a few years left in him. Garrett Grayson is by far the highest pick the club has spent on a quarterback in years, but doesn’t look to factor into the starting role for a while.
Like the Chiefs before them, the Saints appear likely to find themselves in a similar spot on this list moving forward until/unless they spend high on draft pick.
(AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)
AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps
New England Patriots
Fewest Net Draft Points: 4
th (306.9) Fewest NDP/Start: 2
nd (1.29) Fewest NDP/Win: 1
It should come as no surprise that the Patriots lap the field with an absurd 1.69 points spent per win, effectively equal to the 237 st (1.69) th pick in the draft. Tom Brady’s well-chronicled path from sixth-round pick to Hall of Famer explains their spot on the list, although they drop to fourth in total draft points from the higher picks they have spent in recent years on Ryan Mallett and Jimmy Garoppolo.
We don’t know how many more years Brady, who will be 39 this year, has left, nor what to expect from Garoppolo. In the short term, the Pats should be just fine, but their (nearly) free ride will be over soon.
(AP Photo/Elise Amendola)
AP Photo/Elise Amendola
Fewest Net Draft Points: 5
th (346.8) Fewest NDP/Start: 5
th (9.13) Fewest NDP/Win: 6
We miss Donovan McNabb by one year, which makes Philadelphia an interesting case. The Eagles have not spent much capital on the draft since, and have received modest returns. But half of their six picks (A.J. Feeley, Nick Foles and Kevin Kolb) have started seven or more games, winning 22 of their 38 total starts. Include McNabb, and the Eagles would drop to 19 th (15.76) th in points spent, 13 th in NDP/Start and 12 th in NDP/Win.
The Eagles don’t look to be in the market for a quarterback, nor do they have a draftee starting (Sam Bradford) or backing him up (Mark Sanchez).
(AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
AP Photo/Rick Scuteri
Fewest Net Draft Points: 6
th (492.2) Fewest NDP/Start: 3
rd (6.31) Fewest NDP/Win: 3
Of any team already near the top of this list, Seattle has the best chance of continuing to move higher. While Seneca Wallace is the only quarterback drafted by the club this century other than Russell Wilson to start a game, well, there’s still Russell Wilson. With such a low amount of net points used, every start and win will propel Seattle higher.
rd (9.65) Outlook: Strong
(AP Photo/Bob Leverone)
AP Photo/Bob Leverone
Fewest Net Draft Points: 7
th (521) Fewest NDP/Start: 11
th (16.28) Fewest NDP/Win: 21
Considering how often they are tied to quarterbacks in the media, you might expect the ‘Boys to be higher on this list. But believe it or not, the Cowboys have drafted the fewest QBs of any team in the league since 2000 just Quincy Carter in 2001 and Stephen McGee in 2009 (remember, Tony Romo went undrafted). Of course, those two have only combined for seven wins.
st (74.43) Outlook: Hard to say
Romo looks to be the starter moving forward, though injuries make his status a little more questionable as he enters his age 36 year. Will Dallas look to the trade market/free agency, or will they finally take the plunge and draft a potential future franchise signal caller?
(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez
Fewest Net Draft Points: 8
th (893.8) Fewest NDP/Start: 9
th (12.95) Fewest NDP/Win: 9
The Bears have only spent one high pick on a quarterback, for Rex Grossman back in 2003. They got good value out of fourth-rounder Kyle Orton (33 starts, 21 wins) before trading him as part of the deal for Jay Cutler, who has started ever since.
th (23.95) Outlook: Neutral
So long as Cutler remains the starter, nothing looks to change anytime soon.
(AP Photo/Jim Prisching)
AP Photo/Jim Prisching
Green Bay Packers
Fewest Net Draft Points: 9
th (1,185) Fewest NDP/Start: 7
th (9.45) Fewest NDP/Win: 5
The Pack have drafted five quarterbacks since Aaron Rodgers, but only one (Matt Flynn) has started a single game. No need for anyone else to — Rodgers has won an MVP and a Super Bowl in the meantime, and looks to have years left as a premier NFL arm.
th (14.23) Outlook: Very strong
Another three or four 10+ win seasons seems reasonable for the Packers, who shouldn’t have to spend any more picks on Rogers’ potential heir for a while.
(AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin
Fewest Net Draft Points: 10
th (1,325.2) Fewest NDP/Start: 4
th (7.62) Fewest NDP/Win: 4
Pittsburgh has gotten next to nothing out of every quarterback they’ve drafted not named Roethlisberger. But Big Ben’s 169 starts and 113 wins have more than made up for his draft cost (1150 points), and looks to continue to pay off as long as he can stay on the field. With 2013 draftee Landry Jones behind him, the Steelers are the rare team with homegrown talent in each of the top two spots on the depth chart.
Outlook: Very strong
(AP Photo/Joe Mahoney) th (11.42)
AP Photo/Joe Mahoney
Fewest Net Draft Points: 11
th (1,599.4) Fewest NDP/Start: 19
th (25.39) Fewest NDP/Win: 16
The Cardinals have had three different draftees start more than a full season’s worth of games since 2002, but none hold down the job with enough success to become a perennial starter. While all three scores above rank in the middle third of the league, the latter ones probably reflect the team’s draft success more accurately.
th (61.52) Outlook: Not great
Non-draftee Carson Palmer is old, and backups Drew Stanton and Matt Barkley haven’t done much. Arizona may well be in the market to spend a high pick on a QB soon.
(AP Photo/Matt York)
AP Photo/Matt York
Fewest Net Draft Points: 12
th (1,920.8) Fewest NDP/Start: 17
th (23.71) Fewest NDP/Win: 17
The good news for the Bills is that three of the four quarterbacks they’ve drafted since 2000 have started at least 16 games for the team. The bad news is that they’ve combined to win just 30 of the 81 they have started, and with Ravens’ draftee Tyrod Taylor the starter moving forward, that number doesn’t look to be going up anytime soon.
th (64.03) Outlook: Neutral
As I mentioned, Taylor isn’t going anywhere, but the team isn’t really in need of another QB any time soon. Buffalo should hold steady for the time being.
(AP Photo/Matt Dunham)
AP Photo/Matt Dunham
San Diego Chargers
Fewest Net Draft Points: 13
th (2,000.2) Fewest NDP/Start: 6
th (9.18) Fewest NDP/Win: 7
The infamous Eli Manning refusal to play for San Diego left the team with Phil Rivers instead, who I’m crediting to the Chargers as part of that Draft Day trade. San Diego also gets to subtract the value of the extra picks received in return, helping their net. But their ratios remain even stronger, thanks to Rivers’ successful career.
th (9.18) Outlook: Hard to say
Rivers reportedly has considered retirement in recent offseasons, and the Chargers may look to take a quarterback with the third overall pick in the 2016 Draft. That could shake up their spot on the board significantly.
(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
AP Photo/David Zalubowski
Fewest Net Draft Points: 14
th (2,115.9) Fewest NDP/Start: 18
th (24.04) Fewest NDP/Win: 15
Christian Ponder looms as a pretty big bust, accounting for more than half the draft points accounted for here (1,200), but Teddy Bridgewater has played well through his first couple seasons, already racking up more career wins than his predecessor.
th (50.38) Outlook: Strong…to quite strong
If Bridgewater continues to build on last year’s success and develops into an effective starter for years to come, Minnesota will rise steadily up this list.
(AP Photo/Mike Roemer)
AP Photo/Mike Roemer
Fewest Net Draft Points: 15
th (2,133) Fewest NDP/Start: 8
th (12.05) Fewest NDP/Win: 8
Andy Dalton makes for an easy target, but he’s made 77 starts and earned 50 wins for the Bengals since 2011. Combine that with what Carson Palmer provided (97 starts, 46 wins, and nearly half his draft value returned via trade), and the Bengals have been one of the more shrewd teams in the league in getting good value out of their quarterbacks.
th (21.77) Outlook: Very strong
Dalton is just 28 and is under contract through 2020, so Cincinnati should keep improving its ratios as long as he stays on the field.
(AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
AP Photo/Ron Schwane
Fewest Net Draft Points: 16
th (2,499.6) Fewest NDP/Start: 10
th (14.53) Fewest NDP/Win: 10
Baltimore has spent a pick on a QB in more years (9) than it hasn’t (7) since 2000, but actually got decent value out of Kyle Boller (don’t laugh) and has its franchise mainstay in Joe Flacco. That takes some of the sting out of watching Tyrod Taylor (2011) succeed elsewhere.
th (25.25) Outlook: Strong
With Flacco returning from injury, the Ravens should continue to move up the Top 10 in the ratios.
(AP Photo/Gail Burton)
AP Photo/Gail Burton
Fewest Net Draft Points: 17
th (2,711.6) Fewest NDP/Start: 20
th (27.39) Fewest NDP/Win: 18
After spending nearly 1,300 draft points on three quarterbacks who combined for just 13 wins, the Dolphins appear to be on steadier footing with Ryan Tannehill at the helm. He may not be a marquee-level player, but has provided 64 starts and 29 wins since 2012.
th (64.56) Outlook: Decent
The aforementioned Tannehill may have a higher ceiling yet, and should keep the team from needing to spend highly again on a QB for a while.
(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee
San Francisco 49ers
Fewest Net Draft Points: 18
th (2,956.7) Fewest NDP/Start: 14
th (19.71) Fewest NDP/Win: 13
Alex Smith might have been labeled a bust, but he provided San Francisco with 75 starts, 38 wins, and 900 draft points in return upon his trade, which is more than you can say for a number of top overall picks. And while Colin Kaepernick’s future is uncertain, he’s been productive for a second-rounder, helping mitigate for decisions like Giovanni Carmazzi.
th (41.64) Outlook: Uncertain
If new head coach Chip Kelly goes back to Kaepernick and if he finds success, numbers could trend up. Those are two big ifs.
(AP Photo/Billy Hurst)
AP Photo/Billy Hurst
Fewest Net Draft Points: 19
th (3,014.8) Fewest NDP/Start: 25
th (36.77) Fewest NDP/Win: 26
Don’t get too excited by that first number, Texans fans. David Carr racked up 75 of the 82 total starts and 22 of the 24 wins in this group. Yes, T.J. Yates came back, but not until he had been released, so his late production doesn’t count toward this total. There are a lot of forgotten names on this list.
th (125.62) Outlook: Not great
Houston’s quarterback situation is very much up in the air, and could lead to them spending the 22 nd pick on another QB. They won’t get any more production out of the names already on this list.
(AP Photo/Chris Gardner)
AP Photo/Chris Gardner
Fewest Net Draft Points: 20
th (3027.8) Fewest NDP/Start: 27
th (48.06) Fewest NDP/Win: 22
This feels like a team that you would expect to land higher, and certainly Peyton Manning (drafted in 1998) changes the broader outlook. But even adding in Manning’s numbers in a void leaves their ratios in the middle of the pack, not out front.
nd (86.51) Outlook: Probably very good
So long as Andrew Luck’s injury issues are behind him, Indy looks to have its next franchise signal caller under center for a while.
(AP Photo/AJ Mast)
AP Photo/AJ Mast
St. Louis Rams
Fewest Net Draft Points: 21
st (3,177.8) Fewest NDP/Start: 29
th (56.75) Fewest NDP/Win: 29
Yes, I’m calling them the St. Louis Rams, in memory of every decision good and awful, all of which were made in St. Louis. Sam Bradford accounted for much of both, as the likes of Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger (neither drafted by the Rams) provided success from other sources than the Draft.
th (176.54) Outlook: Fuzzy
Non-Rams draftee Nick Foles heads up the depth chart, but Sean Mannion could get his shot soon enough, which could help the ratios.
(AP Photo/Tony Dejak)
AP Photo/Tony Dejak
Fewest Net Draft Points: 22
nd (3,294.9) Fewest NDP/Start: 26
th (38.76) Fewest NDP/Win: 28
The Browns didn’t finish last in a single category! But perhaps it’s fitting they were 22 th (149.77) nd in points spent, considering they spent the 22 nd pick in the draft on both Brandon Weeden (2012) and Johnny Manziel (2014) in recent years.
None of the QBs drafted remain on the roster, which means the only way to find any more success through the draft is to draft more quarterbacks. Yeesh.
(AP Photo/David Richard)
AP Photo/David Richard
New York Giants
Fewest Net Draft Points: 23
rd (3,430.2) Fewest NDP/Start: 12
th (18.44) Fewest NDP/Win: 12
The Eli Manning draft fiasco cost the Giants some additional draft points, which dropped them to this spot on the list. But as their ratios show, the investment has paid off, with Manning earning 183 starts and 97 wins, not to mention a pair of Super Bowls.
th (35.36) Outlook: Solid
The younger Manning is under contract for four more seasons, and should continue to do what he’s done since landing in New York.
(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee
Fewest Net Draft Points: 24
th (3,602.3) Fewest NDP/Start: 24
th (33.35) Fewest NDP/Win: 20
The Panthers spent heavily on Cam Newton, with the first overall pick in 2011, and are seeing their choice pay off. Newton owns 45 of the 48 wins Panther-drafted QBs since 2000 have accrued, a number which promises to continue to grow for the NFC champs.
th (73.05) Outlook: Excellent
Nearly every team in the league would happily trade places with the Panthers to have a signal caller with Newton’s talent in his prime.
(AP Photo/Gregory Payan)
AP Photo/Gregory Payan
New York Jets
Fewest Net Draft Points: 25
th (3661.6) Fewest NDP/Start: 15
th (21.41) Fewest NDP/Win: 14
The Jets have spent four Top 50 picks on quarterbacks since 2000, but they’ve gotten decent bang for their buck. Five different draft picks have won games for them, with Mark Sanchez (33) edging Chad Pennington (32) as the leader.
th (44.65) Outlook: Cloudy
Draftees Geno Smith and Bryce Petty are both on the roster, but sit behind starter Ryan Fitzpatrick for now.
(AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
AP Photo/Rick Osentoski
Fewest Net Draft Points: 26
th (3,718.3) Fewest NDP/Start: 13
th (18.68) Fewest NDP/Win: 11
The Falcons spent heavy for Mike Vick and Matt Ryan, but the two have combined for 193 starts and 112 wins. Helping the ratios was a shrewd pick of Matt Schaub, later slung for a significantly higher draft pick.
th (32.90) Outlook: Solid
With Ryan entrenched as the starter, the Falcons’ draft investments should continue to pay off for the foreseeable future.
(AP Photo/David Goldman)
AP Photo/David Goldman
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fewest Net Draft Points: 27
th (4,132.2) Fewest NDP/Start: 23
rd (33.06) Fewest NDP/Win: 24
The lion’s share of the Bucs’ investment came from taking Jameis Winston with the top selection last year. And it may take a while to pay that off, considering that the other six QBs drafted since 2000 combined for just 39 wins.
th (91.83) Outlook: Promising
Winston looked pretty solid his rookie year, and if he continues to improve he could prove worth the investment.
(AP Photo/Bob Leverone)
AP Photo/Bob Leverone
Fewest Net Draft Points: 28
th (4,165) Fewest NDP/Start: 30
th (61.25) Fewest NDP/Win: 30
The Raiders haven’t gotten much out of the quarterbacks they’ve drafted, but JaMarcus Russell stands out as a particularly big bust, winning just seven games after being taken with the top overall pick. Derek Carr is already the most productive QB Oakland has taken in years.
th (219.21) Outlook: Bright
Carr had a breakout sophomore season and could grow even further with the offensive weapons around him. Oakland has a long way to go to catch up, but they’re in good shape to do so.
(AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann
Fewest Net Draft Points: 29
th (5,078) Fewest NDP/Start: 21
st (28.85) Fewest NDP/Win: 19
The Jaguars have drafted just four quarterbacks since 2000, but three have been Top 7 picks. Their most successful was the fourth, David Garrard (76 starts, 39 wins), but Blake Bortles has shown promise in his two years at the helm.
th (66.82) Outlook: Hopeful
If Bortles continues to connect with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns and the Jaguars can shore up their defense enough to get a few more wins, things look bright in north Florida.
(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
AP Photo/David J. Phillip
Fewest Net Draft Points: 30
th (5,459.9) Fewest NDP/Start: 22
nd (32.89) Fewest NDP/Win: 23
Detroit went bust on Joey Harrington with the third overall pick in 2002, but that didn’t keep them from dropping the top pick on Matt Stafford seven years later. The latter has proven a more worthwhile investment, although playoff success has been hard to come by.
rd (86.67) Outlook: Mildly optimistic
Stafford doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, but will he be as effective without Calvin Johnson lining up?
(AP Photo/Matt Dunham)
AP Photo/Matt Dunham
Fewest Net Draft Points: 31
st (6,243.2) Fewest NDP/Start: 32
nd (67.13) Fewest NDP/Win: 27
Tennessee has used a Top 8 pick on a trio of quarterbacks in the past 10 years: Vince Young, Jake Locker and Marcus Mariota. While there is still hope for the last of the three, the prior two combined for just 39 wins, digging the Titans into a pretty big hole on this list.
th (148.65) Outlook: Hopeful
Mariota had flashes of brilliance among a rocky rookie campaign, which included an injury. The jury is still out on his professional future, but any success he has will help.
(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
AP Photo/Charles Krupa
Fewest Net Draft Points: 32
nd (6,908.8) Fewest NDP/Start: 28
th (50.80) Fewest NDP/Win: 25
No team has used as much draft stock on quarterbacks since 2000 than Washington. The RG3 deal cost a ton of extra draft collateral on top of the second overall pick. Besides, homegrown QB since 2000 with the most wins in Burgundy and Gold? Jason Campbell, with 20.
th (125.61) Outlook: Pretty good
Even though Griffin is all but out, Kirk Cousins should be the starter next year, at least. Whether he franchised or signed to a long-term deal remains to be seen.
(AP Photo/Mark Tenally)
AP Photo/Mark Tenally
WASHINGTON — With contract deadlines looming that will dictate the futures of both Kirk Cousins and Robert Griffin III, it’s as good a time as ever to look at how well teams have fared drafting quarterbacks in recent memory.
It’s important to remember that these rankings don’t necessarily mean any team is “better” or “worse” at managing quarterbacks. Some choose to trade or use free agency to acquire them, rather than leaning on the draft. This simply measures the quantity of draft assets used, and the return in both games started and won in relation to those assets.
Because we’re dealing with an arbitrary end point (the year 2000), the methodology is imperfect and forces a couple exceptions, which I’ll detail below. And since we are going through the 2015 Draft, there are players with the chance to help teams improve upon their scores. That’s why each team includes an “outlook,” which helps us attempt to forecast if they will likely move up or down the list in the future.
For this exercise, I used the draft trade value chart devised by Jimmy Johnson while he was head coach of the Cowboys back in the 90s. The chart assigns a numerical point value to each slot in the draft. I used this when quantifying the draft stock spent by each team on quarterbacks, as well as the value of picks they traded or received in return for either the player or the pick itself.
See the full chart here.
The teams were ranked from fewest to most on three metrics: net draft points spent, net draft points per game started by a quarterback they drafted, and net draft points per win by a quarterback they drafted. There are arguments to be made why each of those metrics could be more valuable, but I’m not attempting to quantify them. That said, the teams are listed from the fewest net points spent to the most in the gallery above.
The Exceptions: New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs
Both the Saints and Chiefs have drafted quarterbacks since 2000 — five and three each, respectively — but not a single one has started a game for either team. The Saints leaned primarily on trade acquisitions Aaron Brooks, then Drew Brees. The Chiefs have had a whole host of signal callers, but none who won games were originally drafted by the organization. This poses a problem for determining draft points per start and draft points per win, as one cannot divide a number by zero.
For the Saints, we have to go back to 1997 to Danny Wuerffel, the 99
th overall pick, who started six games and won two in black and gold. Brodie Croyle started 10 games for the Chiefs, but lost all of them. To find a Kansas City draftee with a win, we have to go back more than decade before Wuerffel to Todd Blackledge, drafted in 1983, who earned his final win for the Chiefs in 1989.
This is obviously well outside the scope of this study. So for these teams, I have simply given them an N/A rank for the categories they cannot fill.
Flip through the slides and see where your team lands.