The quantum computing market is coming off an amazing year with revenues around $1 billion in 2025, with the prospect of a rapidly expanding cash pipeline in 2026.
According to Jefferies analyst Kevin Garrigan, the quantum computing market will be potentially worth about $198 billion by 2040. That’s a number that should attract more investors to rising public companies like D-Wave Quantum Inc. (ticker: QBTS), IonQ Inc. (IONQ) and Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI), among others. Those high-flying upstarts join traditional quantum brands like International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), Google, Quantinuum and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) in what industry publication Quantum Insider calls a “quiet arms race” that suggests 2026 “could be the fastest-moving year yet for quantum hardware, especially in error correction.”
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In that realm, an expanding quantum computing “brain chain” is leading to more funding, more companies going public and an increasingly tight sector no longer supported by a handful of stocks.
The expansion of quantum companies is rising as three primary technology drivers rule the roost, according to a new report from CrispIdea, an investment research firm specializing in disruptive and deep tech sectors. In the second installment of its “The State of the Quantum Industry” research paper, company analysts point to standout themes in 2026. “The field today sits at an inflection point defined by three realities,” CrispIdea reports, as follows:
— Quantum computers are beginning to demonstrate utility in narrow, high-value domains.
— Quantum and artificial intelligence are becoming increasingly intertwined.
— Global investment (both public and private) has surged again, culminating in a sharp rally in quantum-related equities in late 2024 and early 2025.
For investors, it’s time to start rolling cash into quantum computing companies excelling across multiple commercial enterprises, including drug discovery and materials science, finance, risk and portfolio optimization, grid optimization and energy services, and quantum sensing and defense applications, among others.
All of the above are industries where “classical computers struggle due to combinatorial scaling, high-dimensional search spaces or the inherently quantum nature of underlying phenomena,” the CrispIdea report states. In that context, quantum computing “is no longer framed as a miracle technology waiting to happen,” the report says. “It is now viewed as a specialized computational tool steadily approaching utility.”
As quantum computing immerses itself deeper into commercial markets where big results are expected, which industry leaders make the most sense for investors right now? These publicly traded names top the list:
| STOCK | 1-YEAR RETURN* | 3-YEAR RETURN* |
| Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) | 2.2% | 33.4% |
| Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) | 6.7% | 24.5% |
| D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) | 413.1% | 175.0% |
| IonQ Inc. (IONQ) | 30.3% | 126.8% |
| International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) | 32.6% | 30.2% |
| Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) | 29.3% | 115.4% |
| Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) | 154.2% | 203.6% |
| Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) | 21.4% | 89.6% |
*As of Jan. 20 market close. Three-year return is annualized.
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
Amazon is boosting its quantum computing bets with Peter DeSantis, its new leader for AI models, custom silicon (semiconductor chips) and quantum computing. DeSantis is a 27-year Amazon veteran who will oversee the three areas as “naturally reinforcing,” according to a company note.
“Quantum is, of the three, the longest-term thing that we’re working on,” DeSantis said. “It’s going to be many years before we see the impact of quantum computing on the world, but I have very high conviction we will see it in our not-so-distant future, (and) we are building a quantum chip.”
In the near term, Amazon Braket, through AWS, already offers quantum computing services, including hardware access, simulators and developer tools, which have significantly expanded its quantum ecosystem brand.
Yet perhaps more meaningful news is that Amazon’s quantum results give the tech giant a solid stake in a potential “next frontier” of broad-based computing. If quantum commercializes more quickly than anticipated, Amazon’s Braket hardware push should trigger more upside in the share price down the road.
Meanwhile, Amazon’s stock is off to a decent start in 2026, despite market turbulence, and it’s up 6.7% over the past three months. It’s been buoyed by its ad business, which is expected to double in revenue by 2030, to $140 billion, according to a recent report by TD Cowen.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Microsoft continues its AI push to help build quantum machines that aim to solve complex computing, a task that classical computers aren’t up to, said Jason Zander, executive vice president of Microsoft Discovery and Quantum, in a recent Microsoft Source report for 2026.
Microsoft points to hybrid computing, which is gaining steam right now as quantum applications work alongside AI and supercomputers. “AI finds patterns in data,” the report notes. “Supercomputers run massive simulations. And quantum adds a new layer that will drive far greater accuracy for modeling molecules and materials.”
Zander says that Microsoft’s Majorana quantum chip, rolled out last February, leverages a “topological qubit” approach that reduces error rates and enables better scalability in quantum computing. That sets the stage for machines with millions of qubits on a single chip, providing the processing power needed for complex scientific and industrial problems. “Quantum advantage will drive breakthroughs in materials, medicine and more,” Zander notes. “The future of AI and science won’t just be faster, it will be fundamentally redefined.”
MSFT shares are down 6% so far in 2026 and down 12% over the past three months, as analysts and investors increasingly question the company’s AI adoption rates along with rising costs tied to its data centers.
D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS)
Trading up 3.4% so far in January and soaring 413% over the past 12 months, D-Wave has lost some of its high-flying momentum. However, the company is bouncing back with the purchase of Quantum Circuits Inc., a quantum computing developer, in a merger agreement announced on Jan. 7. The deal, valued at $550 million, should allow both companies to bring co-produced superconducting gate-model quantum systems to market in 2026, D-Wave says.
The company could use the cash generated by that rollout as it struggles to break into the black, profit-wise. D-Wave generated a 100% year-over-year sales boost in the third quarter that only translated into $3.7 million in Q3 revenues. Given the company’s $30.4 million in operating expenses for the quarter, D-Wave is still in the red for operations, even though its longer-term prospects shine as it outpaces the competition.
“While most companies race toward gate-model, fault-tolerant machines, D-Wave has already deployed commercial quantum annealers for real customers, particularly in optimization-heavy sectors,” CrispIdea notes in its report.
Mizuho Securities held its “buy” call on QBTS this week, with a $46 price target. The stock closed around $27 on Jan. 20.
IonQ Inc. (IONQ)
IonQ is in bounce-back mode in early 2026, returning 12.9% to shareholders year to date with a loss of 15.5% over the past three months. The company is accelerating efforts to minimize quantum computing error rates, a key component of the quantum revolution. IonQ just reported a two-gate fidelity (accuracy) of 99.99% in October, establishing a new world record.
In the world of computing, this is still very error-prone, but it makes IonQ a leader in this space and enables it to implement other measures to reduce errors. As noted by IonQ, the 99.99% figure “largely defines quantum computing performance — measuring the accuracy of quantum operations. As fidelity improves, fewer errors must be addressed, and more complex algorithms can be run.”
IonQ revenues have slowed somewhat, after growing 2,000% from 2021 to 2024 “due to the accelerating adoption of the company’s quantum platform technologies in the U.S. and around the world,” the company noted in a recent statement. Company management says it’s expanding IonQ’s global footprint with commercial and government customers, and accelerating efforts across quantum computing, quantum networking, quantum sensing and quantum security.
“IonQ is one public quantum name I find compelling as a long-term holding, since their trapped-ion approach has shown materially higher stability than their quantum peers, which matters as systems scale,” says Shay Boloor, chief market strategist at Futurum Equities. “Recent fidelity milestones indicate meaningful progress toward practical use cases, even if those use cases remain limited for now. IonQ is also embedded across all major cloud platforms and is well aligned with U.S. government and defense programs. Just as importantly, they have a very large cash position ($3.5 billion), which allows them to fund a long development cycle without relying on constant dilution.”
Jefferies’ Garrigan launched coverage of IonQ in mid-December with a “buy” rating and a $100-per-share price target, citing a more robust balance sheet. The stock trades around $51 as of Jan. 20.
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
In its Quantum Roadmap, IBM says its Nighthawk processor, with up to three 120-qubit modules (360 qubits) capable of running 7,500 gates, will be delivered through the IBM Quantum Platform in 2026. By 2027, that figure should rise by 10,000 gates, and by 2028, up to 15,000 gates. Nighthawk, launched in late 2025, is the company’s most advanced quantum processor yet and is specifically designed to complement high-performing quantum software to deliver “quantum advantage” next year. That’s the point where a quantum computer can solve a problem better than all classical-only computer methods, IBM notes.
IBM is also moving on other quantum fronts. It recently announced a 2029 delivery date for its new “large-scale, fault-tolerant” quantum computer, dubbed IBM Quantum Starling, which will be built at the company’s new IBM Quantum Data Center in Poughkeepsie, New York. Comparing the unit to today’s quantum computers, the company expects Starling to perform 20,000 times more operations with “the memory of more than a quindecillion of the world’s most powerful supercomputers.”
IBM’s stock is performing well, up 32.6% over the past year through mid-January. The company recently received a thumbs-up from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), which said IBM is projected to have a positive outlook for 2026, with a “buy” rating and a $350 price target. It closed at about $291 on Jan. 20.
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)
Nvidia is increasingly prioritizing hybrid quantum computing, particularly with its Nvidia NVQLink, an open-system architecture to connect classical graphics processing units (GPUs) with quantum processing units (QPUs) to build accelerated quantum supercomputers, which launched Oct. 28.
Working with high-profile science partners like Brookhaven National Laboratory, Fermilab, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and Los Alamos National Laboratory, among others, Nvidia says its NVQLink provides an open approach to quantum integration, supporting 17 QPU builders, five controller builders and nine national (U.S.) labs. The company said the technology will connect the many approaches to quantum processors and hardware systems directly to AI supercomputing, “providing a unified, turnkey solution for overcoming the key integration challenges that quantum researchers face in scaling their hardware.”
Nvidia, it seems, is out to prove that it’s not just a GPU outfit anymore; it’s showing all the signs of a quantum-classical convergence play that should add value to NVDA shares going forward.
Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI)
Berkeley, California-based Rigetti provides full-stack quantum computing services, primarily for global enterprise, government and research clients, via its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services platform. Only 12 years old, Rigetti is taking a breather after building an $8.7 billion market cap with a share-price hike over 530% in 2025. The stock is down 42% over the past three months, while its market cap has slid to $8 billion as of mid-January.
That’s partially because Rigetti is no longer the underdog and is under more scrutiny from analysts and investors. “Rigetti Computing is credible but structurally behind, since superconducting qubits are fast but degrade quickly, which creates scaling and cost challenges,” Boloor says. “Most of Rigetti’s activity remains research-oriented rather than production-oriented, and future progress likely requires significant additional capital.”
Analysts seem split on RGTI shares, with Wedbush recently issuing an “outperform” call on the stock with a $35 price target, while Jefferies backed into a “hold” call with a $30 price target. The stock is currently trading around $25 per share, as the stock took a hit after Rigetti delayed the launch of its Cepheus-1-108Q quantum system until the end of Q1 2026.
Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT)
Hoboken, New Jersey-based Quantum Computing saw its share price drop by 4.4% on Jan. 13, placing the stock 55% below its 52-week high of $25.84 and 165% above its 52-week low of $4.37. Currently trading around $11, QUBT shares could rally over the company’s $22 million cash bid for Luminar Technologies Inc.’s (LAZRQ) assets, pending court approval.
The buyout would solidify its position in the photonics sector by integrating Luminar’s LiDAR technology to boost its quantum optics and photonics operations, an area of particular expertise for Luminar. Quantum Computing is a big believer in photonic chips, which it has said will revolutionize the quantum computing industry.
One Quantum Fund to Spread the Risk
Boloor advises less experienced investors to tread cautiously in the quantum computing section of the stock market.
“First, understand the timeline, since quantum does not need a consumer breakthrough or a ‘ChatGPT moment’ to matter, since governments will keep funding it because it underpins sovereignty and that alone supports the sector for years,” he says. “Second, it’s important to avoid narrative traps, since most companies in this space will not survive. Many exist purely to sell stock during hype cycles.”
Third, Boloor advises investors to think in relative positioning rather than valuation multiples. That’s because these companies are pre-profit by design, and what matters is fidelity, scalability, capital runway, government alignment and control over distribution.
Therefore, Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) is one of the safest ways to get exposure, says Boloor, “since it spreads risk across many companies instead of betting on one.”
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8 Best Quantum Computing Stocks to Buy in 2026 originally appeared on usnews.com
Update 01/21/26: This story was published at an earlier date and has been updated with new information.
