Elevated interest rates, sluggish economic growth, a slowing job market and tariff uncertainty have some investors concerned a recession may be around the corner. When the economy tanks, even most high-quality stocks get dragged down with it.
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However, during the past two U.S. recessions in 2008 and 2020, there were still a handful of stocks that significantly outperformed the S&P 500. These recession-resistant stocks might help investors play defense if the U.S. dips into a recession in 2025 or 2026. Here are seven stocks CFRA analysts recommend that outperformed the S&P 500 in both 2008 and 2020:
| Stock | Upside potential from Oct. 2 close |
| Walmart Inc. (ticker: WMT) | 18% |
| Netflix Inc. (NFLX) | 28% |
| T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) | 17% |
| Accenture PLC (ACN) | 35% |
| NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) | 7% |
| Synopsys Inc. (SNPS) | 12% |
| Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) | 9% |
Walmart Inc. (WMT)
It’s no surprise that discount retailer Walmart outperformed during each of the past two recession years. Americans can’t go without groceries when times get tough, but they can save money by bargain hunting at Walmart. Analyst Arun Sundaram says Walmart’s domestic and international segments are reporting impressive growth numbers. In addition, Sundaram says improving sales mix and opportunities in automation and technology can help Walmart become a more efficient and more profitable business in coming years. Finally, he says Walmart’s share buybacks should limit potential share price downside. CFRA has a “strong buy” rating and $120 price target for WMT stock, which closed at $101.70 on Oct. 2.
S&P 500 outperformance: 5.1% (2020), 56.3% (2008)
Netflix Inc. (NFLX)
At first glance, it may seem strange that video streaming service Netflix, which relies on discretionary spending, would perform so well during times of economic difficulty. Netflix’s strength in 2008 and 2020 may have to do with Americans cutting back on pricey entertainment options during financial hardship. Netflix provides access to thousands of shows and movies for as low as $7.99 per month. Analyst Kenneth Leon says Netflix is expanding its international business, and he believes its ad-supported subscriptions will be a major revenue source. CFRA has a “strong buy” rating and $1,485 price target for NFLX stock, which closed at $1,162.53 on Oct. 2.
S&P 500 outperformance: 50.9% (2020), 50.8% (2008)
T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS)
After merging with Sprint in 2020, T-Mobile is now the second-largest U.S. wireless provider. Over the long term, T-Mobile has generated consistent growth in a challenging industry, even during economic downturns. Analyst Keith Snyder says T-Mobile will continue to gain market share from its biggest competitors, and he anticipates the company will grow its free cash flow and manage its churn even in a fiercely competitive environment. Snyder says T-Mobile has the most advanced 5G network and has utilized aggressive pricing to win over customers. CFRA has a “strong buy” rating and $270 price target for TMUS stock, which closed at $230.14 on Oct. 2.
S&P 500 outperformance: 55.7% (2020), 14.8% (2008)
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Accenture PLC (ACN)
Accenture is a global information technologies services firm. The company generates nearly half its revenue from North America, about a third from Europe and the remainder from other parts of the world. Accenture’s diversified consulting and services business made it recession-resistant in the past and will likely continue to do so in the future. Analyst Brooks Idlet says Accenture is a market leader in artificial intelligence IT services, a field that he believes will be critical as customers upgrade their businesses and integrate AI features in coming years. CFRA has a “buy” rating and $331 price target for ACN stock, which closed at $244.34 on Oct. 2.
S&P 500 outperformance: 7.8% (2020), 29.5% (2008)
NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE)
NextEra Energy is a utility holding company and is the parent of Florida Power & Light, as well as NextEra Energy Resources. Utility sector stocks are generally considered defensive investments and are popular flight-to-safety plays during economic downturns. Utility companies have stable demand, predictable cash flows and limited competition. NextEra shares outperformed the S&P 500 by double-digit percentages in both 2008 and 2020. Analyst Daniel Rich says favorable Florida regulations will support at least 8% compound annual growth in earnings per share for NextEra through 2028. CFRA has a “buy” rating and $84 price target for NEE stock, which closed at $78.18 on Oct. 2.
S&P 500 outperformance: 11.1% (2020), 12.8% (2008)
Synopsys Inc. (SNPS)
Synopsys provides a platform engineers can use to design and test semiconductor chips and other software applications. The global semiconductor industry is a secular growth market, so demand for chip testing and design services is constant — even during an economic downturn. Idlet says Synopsys’ Electronic Design Automation (EDA) and Design IP segments both have sustainable growth profiles. More than 75% of Synopsys’ revenue is recurring, providing exceptional financial visibility in any environment. Idlet says growing AI-fueled device complexity will be a major tailwind for Synopsys. CFRA has a “strong buy” rating and $530 price target for SNPS stock, which closed at $471.15 on Oct. 2.
S&P 500 outperformance: 70% (2020), 9.9% (2008)
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
Arthur J. Gallagher is one of the world’s largest international insurance brokers and risk management services providers. Because people and businesses still need insurance even during an economic downturn, the insurance industry is generally considered to be recession resistant. Analyst Catherine Seifert says Arthur J. Gallagher has impressive revenue growth momentum, driven by the company’s acquisition strategy and pricing gains. Seifert predicts AJG will continue to outgrow and outperform its peers, maintaining revenue growth in the 12% to 18% range in 2025 and 2026. CFRA has a “buy” rating and $335 price target for AJG stock, which closed at $308.67 on Oct. 2.
S&P 500 outperformance: 13.7% (2020), 45.5% (2008)
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7 Stocks That Outperform in a Recession originally appeared on usnews.com
Update 10/03/25: This story was published at an earlier date and has been updated with new information.
