This November, voters will head to the polls and decide who should be president for the next four years. And while debates rage over topics such as border security, immigration and abortion, people shouldn’t overlook the importance of retirement issues.
The combined Social Security retirement and disability trust funds will be depleted in 2035, according to current estimates, and only be able to pay out 83% of retiree benefits after that time. The Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund is expected to run dry in 2036, meaning only 89% of Part A costs can be covered.
While Congress must pass legislation to address these shortfalls, the president often sets the tone for discussions and must sign any bill into law. What’s more, the presidential-led executive branch generally has some leeway in implementing bill provisions.
However, the two major presidential candidates — Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump — have provided little detail on how they would address these twin shortfalls.
In the absence of this information, voters may want to consider “the dogs that aren’t barking,” according to Justin Buchler, associate professor in the department of political science at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. In other words, what isn’t being said may be as important as what is being said.
Here’s a look at what we know about how the 2024 presidential candidates would address major retirement concerns.
[READ: What Will the Social Security COLA Raise Be for 2025?]
Social Security
Shoring up the Social Security trust fund could be accomplished by increasing payments into the fund, reducing benefits paid out of the fund or a combination of the two.
In his 2024 State of the Union address, President Joe Biden stated his opposition to cutting Social Security benefits or increasing the retirement age. He did say he supported having high-income households “pay their fair share.”
Harris, who serves as vice president in the Biden administration, hasn’t said if she will pick up the mantle of increasing Social Security taxes for high earners, but it doesn’t seem outside the realm of possibility.
“We have not seen any dramatic departures (in her views) from President Biden,” according to Buchler.
The 2024 Democratic Party platform advocates for an expansion of Social Security, stating in part:
“We will enact policies to make Social Security more progressive, including increasing benefits for all beneficiaries, meaningfully increasing minimum benefit payments, increasing benefits for long-duration beneficiaries, and protecting surviving spouses from benefit cuts.”
Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump has posted an “Agenda 47” on his website that includes this promise regarding Social Security: “Fight for and protect Social Security and Medicare with no cuts, including no changes to the retirement age.”
“Trump is a little more complicated,” says Patricia Crouse, professor of political science at the University of New Haven in Connecticut. “He has a habit of saying one thing and meaning something else.”
During a March interview with CNBC, the Republican candidate said, “…there is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting.” While many interpreted that to mean Trump was open to Social Security and Medicare cuts, he said in a later interview that he would never do anything to “jeopardize or hurt” the two programs.
What may be more notable than Trump’s statements is the lack of any mention of amending the Social Security program in the 2024 Republican Party platform.
“That’s a dog that’s not barking,” Buchler says.
Traditionally, the Republican Party has promoted the idea of privatizing Social Security so workers could invest their own money, but that suggestion wasn’t included in the platform this year. Perhaps it’s because that proposal, along with cutbacks in Medicare, is politically unpopular right now. “Their best move is to stay quiet on these issues,” according to Buchler.
[READ: Frequently Asked Social Security Benefit Questions.]
Medicare
Candidate positions on Medicare are equally as murky. As with Social Security, Trump has not articulated a clear plan for addressing the looming shortfall in the Medicare trust fund. However, some say his past actions indicate a willingness to reduce retiree benefits.
“There is also a track record of both Trump and the House Republicans going back over the last couple of decades calling for increases in qualifying ages, cuts to benefits, moves to privatize these entitlement programs and efforts to eliminate the Affordable Care Act,” said Chris Orestis, president of Retirement Genius, an online retirement resource based in Portland, Maine, in an email.
The Republican Party platform states that “President Trump has made absolutely clear that he will not cut one penny from Medicare or Social Security.” However, it does not address the age for benefits or other specifics. In its section on strengthening Medicare, the platform notes it will prohibit illegal immigrants from receiving Medicare as a way to “strengthen Medicare for future generations.”
Harris has also been short on details when it comes to action she might take on Medicare. However, the Democratic Party platform states it would increase the Medicare eligibility age to 60; expand coverage to include dental, vision and hearing services; and allow Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices for all public and private purchasers.
Not to be overlooked, according to Buchler, is Harris’s move away from Medicare for All, a proposal to provide universal health care. The presidential candidate herself hasn’t been championing the cause, and the party platform doesn’t embrace it either. Instead, the 2024 platform calls for a public insurance option to be available to all through the government health insurance market.
Progressives within the Democratic Party have long called for universal health care, but Buchler says Harris has received no pushback about the change in her position. “She has shored up the left flank,” he says, likely through her positions on price controls and Israel.
Other Retirement Issues
In terms of other retirement issues, such as changes to retirement savings accounts, the two main presidential candidates have said little. The Republican Party platform is also silent on the matter, but the Democratic Party platform makes several references to changes it would like to see made.
The platform calls for “equalizing tax benefits for retirement contributions” and allowing states and local governments to create public individual and pooled retirement accounts. It also includes support for amending federal bankruptcy laws to protect worker pensions should an employer file for bankruptcy.
One concern for younger retirees may be Trump’s stated opposition to the Affordable Care Act. The act established a health insurance marketplace and government subsidies for those who need to purchase their own health insurance. Many early retirees rely on the marketplace to find coverage until they become eligible for Medicare at age 65.
Of course, whether any of these changes are implemented isn’t up to the president alone, Crouse notes. “There is the dynamic of who’s in Congress,” she says.
[READ: How Raising the Retirement Age Could Help or Hurt Seniors]
Independent and Third-Party Candidate Positions on Retirement
Of course, Harris and Trump won’t be the only names on the ballot this November.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has received the lion’s share of press as an independent candidate for president. However, he recently ended his candidacy and has endorsed Trump.
Among third parties, the Libertarian Party and Green Party will both be on most ballots this November. Their presidential candidates are Chase Oliver and Jill Stein, respectively.
The Libertarian Party platform states that it would phase out the current Social Security system and replace it with a voluntary private system. While the party platform does not specifically reference Medicare, it says, “We favor a free market health care system.”
The Green Party states that it opposes the privatization of Social Security and calls upon Social Security and Medicare taxes to be applied to all income. Currently, the amount subject to these taxes is capped. The party also supports single-payer, universal health care.
Ultimately, though, the current political system in the U.S. virtually guarantees that either a Republican or Democratic candidate will be elected president. According to Crouse, “There isn’t room for a serious third-party candidate, particularly at the federal level.”
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Where the Presidential Candidates Stand on Retirement originally appeared on usnews.com
Update 09/03/24: This story was published at an earlier date and has been updated with new information.
