It’s easy to look at climate change as an eventual problem instead of a current one. The reality, though, is that climate shifts and weather events are already driving people all over the U.S. — and the world — out of their homes, forcing them to relocate to areas where the weather tends to be less extreme. It’s a concept known as climate migration, and in the coming years, we could see a huge shift in moving patterns because of it.
[READ: Should You Disclose the Climate Risks to Your Home?]
What Is Climate Migration?
Climate migration is the act of moving away from areas that are prone to extreme weather or weather events and seeking refuge in areas with more moderate climates. Climate migrants will often flee their home regions due to repeated environmental disasters such as floods and wildfires, or due to persistent concerns like drought conditions.
Climate migration exists at the global level. There are people all over the world who are being forced out of their homes due to repeated destruction following weather events. Gaia Vince, a climate migration expert and author of “Nomad Century: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our World,” calls climate migration “the biggest human crisis you’ve never heard of.”
But the problem has, for years, been hitting close to home in the U.S. There were 28 weather and climate disasters in 2023, surpassing the previous record of 22 in 2020, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and tallying a price tag of at least $92.9 billion. As these events become increasingly frequent and widespread, we can expect even more people within the U.S. to permanently abandon the areas that are most susceptible to them.
Unfortunately, there are many signs of that happening. The 2023 hurricane season ranked fourth for the most named storms in a single year since 1950, according to NOAA. And of 2023’s 20 named storms, seven were hurricanes and three became major hurricanes. For context, an average hurricane season has 14 named storms.
Last year’s storms also produced a world of damage. In July 2023, severe storms and flooding caused $2.2 billion in damage across the Northeast. The following month, severe storms and wind events caused $1.6 billion worth of damage from New York all the way down to Georgia. A December East Coast storm and flooding event impacted states from Florida to Maine.
And in the Central U.S., Gulf, South, and Southeast, severe June storms caused extensive destruction across Texas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Georgia, Florida, Arkansas and Ohio. The total damage amounted to $3.8 billion.
In the Southeast in August, Hurricane Idalia was the strongest hurricane to hit Florida’s Big Bend region in over 125 years. It caused $3.6 billion in damage across Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, 2023 produced more than 56,000 wildfires across the U.S. that burned almost 2.7 million acres of land, according to Dryad Networks GmbH. Roughly 4,300 structures were damaged by wildfires, including more than 3,000 homes.
Perhaps the most recent talked-about wildfire was August 2023’s massive Maui blaze. It destroyed more than 2,200 structures and resulted in roughly $5.5 billion in damages, according to FEMA. The historic district of Lahaina bore the brunt, and the local housing market took quite a hit. Even before the devastating fires on Maui, housing costs were unusually high in the Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina MSA (which includes the inhabited islands of Maui, Lanai and most of Molokai) and the urban Honolulu MSA (including only the island of Oahu).
Meanwhile, NOAA reports that the 2024 hurricane season is shaping up to be one of the busiest on record. As of early August, NOAA anticipates a total of 17 to 24 named storms, of which eight to 13 could become hurricanes and four to seven could become major hurricanes. And on July 1, Hurricane Beryl became the earliest category-5 storm on record in the Atlantic.
Wildfires have also been a problem in 2024. In July alone, nearly 7,000 U.S. fires burned over 2 million acres, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
How Soon Will Climate Migration Really Take Off?
Anna Weber, a policy analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council, says climate migration is already happening.
In 2022, 3.2 million adults in the U.S. were displaced or evacuated because of such disasters, reports the Urban Institute. And as extreme weather continues to intensify, that number is likely to grow: In a recent national survey, nearly one in three Americans cited climate change as a motivation to move.
[See: The Fastest-Growing Places in the U.S. in 2024-2025]
Which Parts of the U.S. Are Climate Migrants Abandoning?
Coastal areas pose a high risk when it comes to extreme weather events as they’re prone to flooding
. And in recent years, cities like New Orleans and Houston have seen catastrophic flooding from major hurricanes in recent years.
In the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, New Orleans’ entire population of 455,000 was forced to leave the city and settle elsewhere, according to the National Center for Biotechnology Information. And several months after Katrina, the city’s population was still whittled down to one-third of its pre-Katrina volume.
But it’s not just southern states, including Louisiana and Florida, where residents are increasingly fleeing due to climate issues. Numerous coastal towns in Alaska are also being impacted as diminishing sea ice exposes them to storms, and rising temperatures thaw the ground and put countless structures at risk. And in the wake of 2012’s Hurricane Sandy, many residents were forced to leave coastal areas in New York and New Jersey.
“It’s almost like a science fiction situation,” Weber says. And worse yet, many people who wind up displaced due to climate issues don’t even realize the risks they took on in the first place, by purchasing homes where they did. That’s because the rules regarding flood zone reporting aren’t nearly as airtight as they should be, she says.
“In about half of U.S. states, you don’t have to report a previous flood, or even have to say that (a home is) in a flood zone,” says Weber. And while FEMA does put out a flood insurance map that homebuyers can consult, that map only considers existing risk — not future risk.
Where Are U.S. Climate Migrants Going?
Many people who are displaced due to climate prefer to stay as close to their home regions as possible, says Weber. Often, people in coastal areas will stay in their state but simply move inland.
That said, there’s been a large shift in U.S. residents flocking toward the Midwest due to it being less susceptible to major weather events. A recent report by Scott Bernstein, founder of the Center for Neighborhood Technology, finds that some of the safest areas in the U.S. lie within the Appalachian Mountains and in western Michigan. The interior West, which includes Utah, New Mexico, Nevada and Idaho, is also flagged as a relatively safe option.
Jesse Keenan, a Tulane University associate professor who studies climate change adaptation, estimates that 50 million Americans could eventually move to regions like New England or the Upper Midwest to escape severe climates. And given that U.S. coastal sea levels are expected to rise by as much as a foot by 2050, he thinks that migration will likely happen sooner rather than later.
The Great Lakes in particular could see a massive influx of migrants in the coming years given that they comprise about 21% of the world’s supply of surface fresh water, and 84% of North America’s supply. And as people become more conscious about air quality, migrants may increasingly flock to Massachusetts and North Dakota, both of which are known for having exceptionally clean air. Hawaii actually ranks first in the U.S. for air quality, but relocating there may be cost-prohibitive for the non-wealthy.
Speaking of Massachusetts, the Bay State joins Delaware, Connecticut and, perhaps surprisingly, California as the least vulnerable U.S. states to drought, according to NOAA. By contrast, Oklahoma, Montana and Iowa are considered the most vulnerable due to factors outside of just rainfall, or the lack of it, such as percentage of land used for farming, existing irrigation systems and adaptability to drought-like conditions. That’s a consideration for those who rely on farming and agriculture as their livelihood.
[A Homeowner’s Guide to Extreme Summer Weather]
What Are the Benefits of Climate Migration?
The benefits of abandoning areas prone to weather-related disasters are multifold, says Weber. First, there’s the savings associated with not having to make frequent repairs or purchase flood or hurricane insurance.
But just as importantly, Weber says, is peace of mind. Repeated exposure to weather-related damage can leave people with lasting PTSD and health issues, she says. Once they move, they no longer have to be scared every time it rains.
Plus, climate migrants can benefit from access to fresh water, clean air and land that’s suitable for farming and growing food. They can also have more comfortable, healthy, stress-free lifestyles in the absence of extreme weather and air pollution.
What Are the Drawbacks of Climate Migration?
For many people, abandoning an area where they’ve planted roots can take a toll, says Vince. When people migrate to different parts of the country, they often give up their jobs, social networks and support systems.
It’s also worth noting that the ability to simply up and move isn’t equally available to everyone impacted by weather events. “The folks who have the option to decide to just move someplace safer are likely to be people with wealth, savings and good job prospects, leaving people who don’t have those opportunities trapped,” says Weber.
There are some government buyout programs providing financial incentives for residents to abandon flood-prone areas and rebuild elsewhere. But often, these programs merely “sound great on paper,” as Weber puts it.
Often, in a government buyout, the price offered for a repeatedly flood-damaged home will be based on its pre-flood value, says Weber. But as home values rise naturally through the years, property owners could end up getting lowballed in the course of a buyout.
Vince, too, is concerned about the less well-off having limited options when it comes to escaping extreme weather. “As people move away, the places they’re abandoning can become less desirable. It becomes a cycle of poverty.”
Climate migrants also have the potential to squeeze the markets they flock to. Midwestern cities that aren’t yet overpopulated, for example, risk getting increasingly overcrowded as coastal areas become less desirable.
And it’s not just crowding that could become problematic. There’s also the issue of property values. As climate-friendly parts of the country become more desirable, the cost of real estate there could soar. And while that’s a good thing for existing property owners who stand to see their home values rise, it’s a bad thing for resource-constrained, first-time buyers who want to plant roots in the towns they grew up in but can’t due to affordability issues.
In the wake of the pandemic, increased migration to the South and West drove home prices up in those parts of the country, according to Freddie Mac. It’s fair to assume that climate-driven migration is apt to have a similar impact on the areas more people flock to.
Can At-Risk Areas Minimize the Impact of Weather Events?
Some can, says Vince, but for others, it may be too late. Ultimately, she argues, to prevent a mass displacement of people due to climate events, everything has to change, from our food to our manufacturing processes — and soon.
That means we need to change our approach to farming and agriculture via crop rotation and adaptation to new food sources. We need to rethink the way we construct homes and buildings while retrofitting existing ones with high emissions. We need to rethink our energy sources and rely more heavily on windmills and solar panels. And finally, we need to accept that climate migration is happening — and find ways to make room for people who need to move by redesigning cities.
“This is something we’re going to have to deal with in the next few decades,” says Vince, “whether we like it or not.”
More from U.S. News
Is Florida’s Housing Market in Trouble?
Real Estate Tips for Selling Your Home This Summer (and Fall)
Can You Build a Hurricane-Proof House?
What Are Climate Migrants and Where Are They Moving? originally appeared on usnews.com
Update 08/29/24: This story was published at an earlier date and has been updated with new information.
