College football in the 21st century is all about consolidation. Even though bigger is not always better, it’s the way things are going to trend for the time being. As the Power Five becomes the Power Four (plus whatever is going on out west), there is a new arms race with three of the leagues regarding the TV landscape, and it appears as though the Big Ten will have the inside track.
Credit the conference’s vision that branding was more important than accuracy. The league with “ten” in its name has had more than 10 members for over 30 years, setting a trend for the 15-school Atlantic 10 and a Big 12 that will have 10, 14, and 16 schools over a three-year span. Credit the league’s vision for major markets outweighing competition: Maryland and Rutgers gave the conference footholds in D.C. and New York City despite adding little to the on-field football product.
And credit the Big Ten for thinking big in becoming a national league by adding two (eventually four) schools on the West Coast, adding the Los Angeles and Seattle markets along the way (and do not sleep on No. 25 market Portland). These moves plus the corresponding TV deals gives the Big Ten a chance to dominate the viewing weekend.
The league already announced there would be nine Friday night broadcasts in 2024 (odds that Maryland gets to host at least one of those?) and with 18 schools in the fold there will be at least nine games on the slate once teams are done taking their bye weeks.
As somebody who is already missing the “Pac-12 After Dark” when that league dissolves at the end of this year, I’m hoping the Big Ten is able to place West Coast games in that Saturday night 10:30 p.m. window. Not every week, mind you, but here’s a chance to dominate the TV sets (and streaming devices) from noon eastern time through two the following morning.
With four West Coast schools, it’s fairly easy to set a rotation (and they’d get a 7:30 p.m. local game) that would limit the clutter in the noon and 3-3:30 p.m. windows. If the Big Ten is wise (while this league has had incredible vision), they also had a stretch where the division names were titled “Leaders” and “Legends”) they’d find a way to keep that late-night window a key piece to their broadcast package moving forward.
West is Worst Update:
While the Big Ten moves forward to a better and brighter world, the seven-way collision of the Big Ten West at 4-5 remains a slim possibility with two absolutes needing to happen. Division-leading Iowa must lose out while Purdue has to win its remaining three games. This week, we also need wins by Northwestern (over Wisconsin) and Illinois plus a loss by Nebraska to keep the dream alive.
Thursday’s game:
Virginia (2-7, 1-4 ACC) at No. 11 Louisville (8-1, 5-1), 7:30 p.m., ESPN
The Cavaliers are officially playing for 2024 after Saturday’s loss to Georgia Tech where they also lost quarterback Tony Muskett (who had previously missed time with a shoulder separation) to a high ankle sprain, running back Mike Hollins (third on the team in rushing yards and fourth in catches) to a neck injury, and linebacker Kam Robinson (fourth in tackles) to a knee injury. Head coach Tony Elliott said Muskett is day to day while he’s optimistic the other two will play. The Cardinals are one win plus a North Carolina loss away from securing a spot in the ACC championship game and boast a defense that leads the conference in stopping the run and containing foes on third down.
That’s bad news for a Virginia attack that is banged up and limited outside of the dynamic wide receiver Malik Washington (on pace for 105 catches). And the much-maligned offense is the better of the two units this year as the Cavaliers defense ranks 12th in the ACC on third down, 13th against the run and overall, and 14th in sacks and scoring defense. Louisville’s top talent is running back Jawhar Jordan who’s tallied 881 yards on 7.1 per carry.
Kippy and Buffy are looking for a red that can carry well in the Kentucky evening, and they’ve going to be enjoying a bottle of Horton Vineyards 2016 Malbec. Like a fan base dealing with a losing season, “It’s thin-skinned and needs more sun and heat to mature than some other varietals making it a little harder to grow.” (winery website’s words, not mine). “It can bring very deep color, strong tannins and a distinct raspberry flavor,” the site reads. “Soft in tannins and lower in acidity with strong raspberry fruit and herbal aromas.” Pairs just as well with a bacon cheeseburger or duck confit.
Presto’s Pick: Cavaliers can’t duck disaster this time, losing 44-16.
Saturday’s Games:
Maryland (5-4, 2-4 Big Ten) at Nebraska (5-4, 3-3), noon, Peacock
The winner clinches bowl eligibility in a matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions. The Cornhuskers have won three of four and five of seven to remain a factor in the Big Ten West (they’re champs with three straight wins plus a Minnesota loss along the way) while the once-championship dreaming Terps have dropped four straight. But even with the turnovers, mistakes, and explosive plays allowed over the last month, head coach Mike Locksley has faith.
“The best part about being a coach of this team,” Locksley said Tuesday afternoon. “I’ve been a part of some teams here where we’ve had some losing streaks longer than four weeks and you can tell by the energy on the field that it is going to be a long, long, day or long, long week. This team is not this team: they are built for the adversity, they are built for the turbulence that we’re facing.”
But are they built for November?
They’re averaging just 69.7 yards rushing in Big Ten games (second fewest in the conference) while the Cornhuskers lead the league in rushing and are second-best at stopping the run. They also have the second most sacks in the conference, something that concerns a Terps offense that’s had less than clean pocket (six sacks allowed in each of the last two weeks). Just as important, the potential seven-way tie at 4-5 in the Big Ten West hinges on the Huskers losing this game.
Presto’s Pick: Terrapins tumble, 23-17.
Virginia Tech (4-5, 3-2 ACC) at Boston College (6-3, 3-2), noon, ACCN
These two schools have met 32 times since 1993, including twice in the ACC championship came (both Hokie wins in 2007-08). But both teams are out of the current Championship Game race if Louisville wins Thursday night. BC has played in seven one-possession games (going 5-2) this fall while only two of the Hokies’ games have been decided by eight points or fewer (they’re 0-2). The Eagles lead the ACC in rushing (212 yards per game) behind dual threat quarterback Thomas Castellanos (the UCF transfer has thrown for 12 touchdowns while running for 10 scores this fall), less than ideal news for a Hokies defense that is fresh from coughing up 231 yards on the ground to Louisville.
Presto’s Pick: Hokies crash-land with a 31-22 loss.
No. 21 James Madison (9-0) vs UConn (1-8), 2 p.m., ESPN+
Cause for concern: JMU won’t have top pass rusher Jalen Green (FBS-best 15.5 sacks this fall) for the rest of the season due to injury, and Connecticut quarterbacks have been sacked just 10 times this fall. The Dukes are one of seven remaining unbeaten teams in FBS (Air Force leaving the exclusive club last Saturday), while the Huskies are in a far more exclusive yet much less desirable group as one of four schools with just one win (FBS is devoid of winless teams. East Carolina, Sam Houston State, and Kent State round out the futile four.
Full disclosure: two of their losses came to ranked opponents and three of their other defeats were one-possession affairs. JMU has made a living off of close games this fall but is coming off of a 28-point thumping of Georgia State-a school that beat the Huskies by 21 in September. The transitive property of football applies, right?
Presto’s Pick: Dukes dominate, 41-10.
Navy (3-5, 2-3 AAC) vs UAB (3-6, 2-3), 3:30 p.m., CBSSN
Two completely different teams take to the field in Annapolis. The Midshipmen lead the conference in rushing but rank 12th in scoring while their defense allows the third fewest points in the AAC. The Blazers lead the league in passing (303 yards per game) and scoring (30.8) but can’t stop anyone, allowing 38.1 points a game while coughing up 200 yards per contest on the ground (at a rate of 5.3 per carry).
Before the Mids begin licking their chops, they should recall that Temple brought similar rush defense numbers into last Saturday’s game and held Navy to three yards per attempt. And one week after allowing 402 passing yards to conference leader E.J. Warner, the defense faces the No. 2 guy in Jacob Zeno (he’s coming off of a 484-yard effort against FAU).
Presto’s Pick: Midshipmen can’t keep pace in a 35-30 loss.
Howard loses to NC Central, Georgetown beats Bucknell, William & Mary falls at Hampton, Richmond beats Elon, Towson tumbles at Villanova, Morgan State slips at South Carolina State.
Last Week: 6-3.
Season: 61-22.
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