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After shakeup, where College Football Playoff sits entering Week 12

Noah Frank | nfrank@wtop.com

November 15, 2016, 1:36 AM

Two weeks ago, we brought you our first set of College Football Playoff prediction model rankings, which matched up in concert with the actual top four teams in the year’s first set of rankings. Now, in the fallout of three of the top four teams in the nation losing over the weekend, the rankings are as much in the air as ever heading into Tuesday night’s announcement. So we’ve fired the model up again to see where we should expect the chips to fall. Alabama retains the clear number one, but things get murky after that and are especially cloudy right on the playoff bubble. Click through to see our entire projected Top 25.
Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. (4) throws in front of Minnesota defensive lineman Yoshoub Timms (52) during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Lincoln, Neb., Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016. Nebraska won 24-17. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
25. Stanford 24. Oklahoma State 23. Florida State 22. Nebraska 21. Boise State With Tommy Armstrong hobbled and just two weeks removed from an embarrassing loss to Ohio State, Nebraska may seem like a team with no shot. But if Wisconsin slips in the last two weeks, there is still a path for a 10-2 Huskers team to make the Big 10 title game, where they would meet Michigan or have a rematch with the Buckeyes. Considering both polls have them in the Top 20, there is still a glimmer of hope. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
AP Photo/Nati Harnik
Western Michigan receiver Corey Davis, left, is grabbed by Akron defensive linemen Brennan Williams (97) and linebacker Ulysses Gilbert III in the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Oct. 15, 2016, in Akron, Ohio. (AP Photo/David Dermer)
20. Tennessee 19. USC 18. Utah 17. Western Michigan 16. Florida Keep rowing that boat, Western Michigan. Last weekend’s chaos is exactly the kind of carnage the Broncos want to see every week moving forward. Another bloody day for ranked teams might just allow Toledo to sneak into the Top 25, giving a little more clout to their MAC finale. The playoff may be a fantasy, but a New Year’s Day bowl is firmly within reach. (AP Photo/David Dermer)
AP Photo/David Dermer
FILE - In this Oct. 29, 2016, file photo, West Virginia quarterback Skyler Howard (3) hands off to running back Justin Crawford during the team's NCAA college football game against Oklahoma State in Stillwater, Okla. West Virginia travels to play Texas this week. (AP Photo/Brody Schmidt, File)
15. Oklahoma 14. Penn State 13. West Virginia 12. Texas A&M 11. LSU The Big 12’s best shot at reaching the playoff appears to rest with the winner of Oklahoma at West Virginia Saturday. If either team can win in a blowout and roll in its finale, it will have a strong argument. Oklahoma has the brand name, but West Virginia might have something more important – just a single loss. (AP Photo/Brody Schmidt, File)
AP Photo/Brody Schmidt, File
California cornerback Josh Drayden, left, breaks up a pass intended for Washington State wide receiver Tavares Martin Jr. (8) during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Pullman, Wash., Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016. (AP Photo/Young Kwak)
10. Auburn 9. Washington State 8. Wisconsin 7. Colorado The good news for Washington State is they are undefeated in the Pac-12 and finally being taken seriously as contenders. The bad news is their two early losses, including the season opener at home to Eastern Washington. Oh, and star wideout River Cracraft tore his ACL Saturday. Can the Cougs prevail and win the conference anyway? (AP Photo/Young Kwak)
AP Photo/Young Kwak
Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson runs during the first half of an NCAA football game against the Boston College at Alumni Stadium in Boston, Mass. Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
6. Louisville 5. Washington The margin between 4-6 in the rankings is almost imperceptibly thin, but Louisville and Washington are just on the outside looking in for now. The Cardinals got their first bit of good news with Clemson’s shocking loss to Pitt, but they’ll need to win out and likely have the Tigers to lose one more game to sneak in. Washington, meanwhile, can right the ship after their loss to USC and still win the Pac-12 by beating Arizona State and Washington State. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
AP Photo/Winslow Townson
Clemson defensive tackle Carlos Watkins (94) reacts after a play against Pittsburgh during the second half of an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016, in Clemson, S.C. (AP Photo/Rainier Ehrhardt)
4. Clemson The best thing that can happen when you lose a potential national title hope-crippling game? For everyone around you to do the same. Clemson sneaks into the final playoff spot for now, but their margin of error moving forward is very thin. (AP Photo/Rainier Ehrhardt)
AP Photo/Rainier Ehrhardt
Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Jehu Chesson (86) dives for yardage against the Maryland Terrapins in the first half of an NCAA college football game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
3. Michigan The Wolverines’ stunning loss at Iowa came with additional damage in the form of the shoulder injury to quarterback Wilton Speight. Even if Michigan can survive a letdown against Indiana, there’s not much time to get everyone healthy and ready for the showdown in Columbus. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
Ohio State running back Curtis Samuel, top, celebrates his touchdown with teammate A.J. Alexander in the first half of an NCAA college football game against Maryland in College Park, Md., Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
2. Ohio State The Buckeyes ought to jump the pack of recent losers for now, but it probably is all just window dressing leading into their Nov. 26 matchup with Michigan at The Shoe. If the Wolverines win, they have the inside track at the No. 2 seed in the playoff. Ohio State’s path is murkier, with their loss to Penn State, but their case is strong. The loser is almost certainly out. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
AP Photo/Patrick Semansky
Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts, left, scores a touchdown during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Mississippi State, Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
1. Alabama The top team in the land has so much cushion that they can lose to Auburn in the finale and still make the SEC title game, with a chance to still make the playoff as the top overall seed. The only thing that can stop the Crimson Tide right now is themselves. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
AP Photo/Brynn Anderson
(1/10)
Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. (4) throws in front of Minnesota defensive lineman Yoshoub Timms (52) during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Lincoln, Neb., Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016. Nebraska won 24-17. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
Western Michigan receiver Corey Davis, left, is grabbed by Akron defensive linemen Brennan Williams (97) and linebacker Ulysses Gilbert III in the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Oct. 15, 2016, in Akron, Ohio. (AP Photo/David Dermer)
FILE - In this Oct. 29, 2016, file photo, West Virginia quarterback Skyler Howard (3) hands off to running back Justin Crawford during the team's NCAA college football game against Oklahoma State in Stillwater, Okla. West Virginia travels to play Texas this week. (AP Photo/Brody Schmidt, File)
California cornerback Josh Drayden, left, breaks up a pass intended for Washington State wide receiver Tavares Martin Jr. (8) during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Pullman, Wash., Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016. (AP Photo/Young Kwak)
Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson runs during the first half of an NCAA football game against the Boston College at Alumni Stadium in Boston, Mass. Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
Clemson defensive tackle Carlos Watkins (94) reacts after a play against Pittsburgh during the second half of an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016, in Clemson, S.C. (AP Photo/Rainier Ehrhardt)
Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Jehu Chesson (86) dives for yardage against the Maryland Terrapins in the first half of an NCAA college football game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Ohio State running back Curtis Samuel, top, celebrates his touchdown with teammate A.J. Alexander in the first half of an NCAA college football game against Maryland in College Park, Md., Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts, left, scores a touchdown during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Mississippi State, Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

How will the selection committee react to a weekend of chaos in the Top 5? See how our model projects the College Football Playoff rankings heading into Week 12.

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