The top four teams in the College Football Playoff rankings remained unchanged this week. But there are a host of other schools that could shake things up between now and the end of the regular season.
WASHINGTON — The College Football Playoff poll remained unchanged this week, but that doesn’t mean the landscape that will shape the final rankings didn’t shift. The top four right now seem unlikely to be the four we’ll actually see play New Year’s Eve, especially the way so many teams’ schedules are back-loaded this season.
In that spirit, we’ve looked past the top four (Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame) to see which other teams still stand a shot of cracking the top four before the season’s out.
(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast
Iowa (10-0)
Rank: 5
Remaining schedule: vs. Purdue, at Nebraska, Big 10 Championship Game (if they win one of their final two games)
Help needed: None
Iowa is easily the least impressive undefeated team remaining, and will likely have the worst strength of schedule of any contender by the end of the season. They have two solid, in-conference road wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern, but have survived scares from highly mediocre Indiana and Minnesota the past two weeks. They have no stern tests remaining, unless you consider a road contest at 5-6 Nebraska a big game. But they’ll have to beat the Big 10 East winner — be it Michigan, Michigan State or Ohio State, all of which they managed to avoid in the regular season — to have any shot of getting in.
(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh
Oklahoma State (10-0)
Rank: 6
Remaining schedule: vs. Baylor, vs. Oklahoma
Help needed: None
Oklahoma State followed their signature win so far by surviving Iowa State in Ames. But that leaves them 10-0 and firmly in control of their own destiny. The Cowboys face a pair of tough tests to finish the campaign in Baylor and Oklahoma, but they get both in Stillwater. Win, and they’re in.
(AP Photo/Justin Hayworth)
AP Photo/Justin Hayworth
Oklahoma (9-1)
Rank: 7
Remaining schedule: vs. TCU, at Oklahoma State
Help needed: None
The Sooners lost a brutal game to Texas, but have looked like a different team since. If they can build on their win at Baylor and take down both TCU and Oklahoma State, they’ll finish as strong as any team in the country, which will be enough to overcome their lone loss and land them in the final four.
(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez
Florida (9-1)
Rank: 8
Remaining schedule: vs. Florida Atlantic, vs. Florida State, SEC Championship Game
Help needed: None
Florida is still in great shape. With the SEC East title already in hand, the Gators get a virtual bye against Florida Atlantic before a potential resume booster against rival Florida State, also in The Swamp. Win those, and they’ll draw (in all likelihood) Alabama in the SEC title game. They’ll obviously need to win to get in, but they will be a lock if they do so, and probably for a top two seed, unless both Clemson and Ohio State run the table.
(AP Photo/Rainier Ehrhardt)
AP Photo/Rainier Ehrhardt
Michigan State (9-1)
Rank: 9
Remaining schedule: at Ohio State, vs. Penn State, Big 10 Championship Game (if they win both)
Help needed: None
Sparty lived on the edge all year until they died courtesy of a bad call in Lincoln. But Michigan State is far from done. This weekend’s trip to Columbus may decide the Big 10 East (though Michigan will still have its say), but will absolutely decide the Spartans’ fate. Win here, and the path to the Playoff is theirs for the taking. Lose, and it’s gone.
(AP Photo/Al Goldis)
AP Photo/Al Goldis
Baylor (8-1)
Rank: 10
Remaining schedule: at Oklahoma State, at TCU, vs. Texas
Help needed: Oklahoma loss, Alabama/Notre Dame loss
Baylor’s control of its own destiny went up in smoke with its loss to Oklahoma last Saturday. But the Bears have two more statement win opportunities the next two weeks, along with the chance to eliminate the rest of the Big 12 competition. A win in Stillwater over Oklahoma State followed by a win in Fort Worth over TCU will keep the Bears in the conversation. But they’ll need OU to trip in one of those same two matchups to once again render them the conference’s “one true champion.” And they’ll probably need Stanford to knock out Notre Dame to clear the fourth and final spot.
(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez
Stanford (8-2)
Rank: 11
Remaining schedule: vs. California, vs. Notre Dame, Pac-12 Championship Game (if they beat Cal or Oregon loses to Oregon State)
Help needed: Michigan to win Big 10, Utah to win Pac-12 South, Big 12 carnage, Clemson and Alabama to run the table.
Stanford’s only real chance is to see Michigan knock out all other Big 10 contenders, then to smash the same Utah team that beat the Wolverines earlier this year in the Pac-12 title game. It would be tough to take a 2-loss Michigan over a 2-loss Stanford in that situation. Stanford also has a huge ace in the hole, hosting Notre Dame in their final game. A win over the Irish would both knock the latter out of the playoff and provide a crucial resume boosting win to the tally.
(AP Photo/Tony Avelar)
AP Photo/Tony Avelar
Michigan (8-2)
Rank: 12
Remaining schedule: at Penn State, at Ohio State
Help needed: Ohio State or Penn State win over Michigan State, Big 12 carnage, Clemson/Alabama win out, Houston loss, anyone but Utah winning the Pac-12
After surviving Indiana in double overtime, the faint glint of Playoff glory is still flickering in Ann Arbor. First, though, the Wolverines need Sparty to fall in Columbus this weekend to clear a path. Then, they need to topple the undefeated Buckeyes to steal the Big 10 East and pummel an undefeated Iowa in the title game to bolster their resume. With Clemson and Alabama in, no other ACC or SEC team would have fewer than two losses, and the Big 12 beating up on itself could bring about the same scenario. A two-loss Big 10 champ may not jump an undefeated Houston, but probably would leapfrog a one-loss Cougar team to find a way in regardless of Notre Dame. If Utah runs the table, though, the Utes would also finish with two losses, and a head-to-head win over Michigan.
(AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
AP Photo/Darron Cummings
North Carolina (9-1)
Rank: 17
Remaining schedule: at Virginia Tech, at North Carolina State, ACC Championship Game (if they win one or more of final two games)
Help needed: None
That’s right — none. Don’t sleep on North Carolina. The Tar Heels have rebounded from a brutal, 17-13 season-opening loss against South Carolina to win nine straight, including a road victory over Pitt and back-to-back deconstructions of Duke and Miami, outscoring those two by a combined 125-52. UNC needs to avoid a slip in its final two road games, but could head to Atlanta 11-1 with a chance to beat Clemson and win the ACC. With the committee seemingly in love with the Tigers, that win would likely propel UNC above a one-loss Big 12 champ or Notre Dame, considering its lone loss is to that same Clemson team.
(AP Photo/Rob Brown)
AP Photo/Rob Brown
TCU (9-1)
Rank: 18
Remaining schedule: at Oklahoma, vs. Baylor
Help needed: Two Oklahoma State losses, Alabama/Notre Dame loss
The Horned Frogs are hurting, and at the wrong time. With both of their Heisman hopefuls — quarterback Trevone Boykin and wide receiver Josh Docston — questionable, they head to Norman to take on a steamrolling Oklahoma team. But if TCU can pull out a win, then exact revenge for last year’s meltdown in Waco, they’ll do everything left in their power to put themselves in position. But they’ll still need help in the conference, in the form of a pair of Oklahoma State losses, as the Cowboys beat the Horned Frogs head-to-head. And they’ll need either Alabama or Notre Dame to pick up a second loss to move them out of the picture.
(AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)
AP Photo/Ron Jenkins
Houston (10-0)
Rank: 19
Remaining schedule: at UConn, vs. Navy, AAC Championship Game (if they beat Navy)
Help needed: Alabama loss, Stanford win over Notre Dame, Michigan win over Ohio State, Big 12 carnage
It’s hard to imagine any non-Power Five team making it in without going undefeated. Houston is the lone remaining team that fits that criteria. Their biggest drawback is their strength of schedule, but that will improve with their tilt against Navy and, if they win out the American Conference title game, potentially against a ranked Temple team. If Michigan can win the Big 10 with two losses, the Big 12 winner has two losses and Notre Dame loses again, even accounting for Alabama and Clemson, it would be very hard to keep an undefeated Cougars team out.
(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
