Dave Preston is an AP Top 25 voter. Check out his ballots here.
There are no guarantees in March, no matter what your record might be or how well you’re playing.
Just because you put up a fantastic preconference run in November and December or dominate league play in January and February, March can be a fickle mistress that can turn a dream season into a nightmare. And if you compete in a single-bid conference, March can be ever so cold.
Towson (22-11) entered the CAA Tournament heads and shoulders above the rest of the pack with a 16-2 record that included a sweep of second place UNC-Wilmington. The Tigers were also playing in nearby D.C., roughly 57 miles away from their campus.
Unfortunately, two months of outstanding play came undone Monday night when the Tigers were tamed by upstart Delaware 82-72. The Blue Hens hit 55% of their shots and took the lead for good right before halftime.
“We were out played tonight, we just couldn’t stop them,” Towson head coach Pat Skerry said. “I thought we played incredibly hard. We just didn’t have the type of defensive effort that we pride ourselves on. Our defense hasn’t been good the last three games and tonight we paid the price.”
Dylan Williamson scored 23 points in the losing effort. While he’s one of several underclassmen on this roster, which includes CAA Player of the Year Tyler Tejada, there’s no guarantee that everyone will return this fall in the age of the transfer portal and NIL.
Meanwhile, the Blue Hens have reversed what was a nightmare of a season: six straight losses entering the CAA Tournament and 1-11 since Jan. 18. The 12th seed has won four games in four days after posting four wins over the previous 62 days.
Now, the program that is leaving the CAA for Conference USA (and FBS football) this fall has the chance to leave the conference in a blaze of glory after blowing up its bracket. But just like a better record or higher seed, momentum earns no guarantees in March.
Bids Awarded Monday
SoCon: Wofford (19-15) outscored Furman 92-85 to complete an improbable tournament run from the No. 6 seed, thanks to 54% shooting (and 10 of 20 from 3-point range). The Terriers reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019, when current Virginia Tech head coach Mike Young led them to a No. 7 seed and a first round win. This year’s team is projected by ESPN as a No. 15 seed.
Sun Belt: Troy (23-10) defeats Arkansas State 94-81 to wrap up a dominant run that saw the Trojans average 16 point-margins in its three tournament wins. The Red Wolves actually led 68-67 with six minutes left in regulation before missing nine of their next 10 shots. Troy is projected to be a No. 14 seed this March, in line with their previous placement (No. 14 in 2003, No. 15 in 2017).
Tuesday Night’s Bids
CAA: 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network. Delaware (16-19) takes on UNC-Wilmington (26-7) and tries to become the third school to win five games in five days to capture its conference tournament (UConn in 2011 and NC State last March are the two others). The Seahawks won both regular season meetings (by 10 in Newark and 30 in Wilmington). While UNCW leads the CAA in scoring, the Blue Hens rank third while leading the conference in shooting from the field and 3-point range. The key battle might just be on the boards: UNC-Wilmington leads the league in rebounding margin while Delaware ranks last.
Northeast: 7 p.m., ESPN+. The Blue Hens aren’t the only school looking to advance to the NCAA Tournament with a losing record. But the 15-17 St. Francis (PA) Red Flash wrapped up its regular season with three straight overtime wins and carried that momentum over with back-to-back three-point victories in the conference tournament. Central Connecticut (25-6) won both regular season meetings by double-digits but needed overtime to edge Farleigh Dickinson in the semifinals. The regular season champ Blue Devils are looking for their first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2007, while St. Francis hasn’t danced since 1991.
Horizon: 7 p.m., ESPN+. Robert Morris (25-8) plays Youngstown State (21-12) as the regular season champion Colonials have won nine straight and 15 of 16. The two teams split their regular season series with each winning in the other school’s gym. Robert Morris last won the Horizon Tournament in 2020 before the pandemic canceled the NCAA Tournament. Youngstown State is looking for its first ever trip to the NCAAs.
West Coast Conference: 9 p.m., ESPN. No. 21 Saint Mary’s (28-4) and Gonzaga (24-8) were both given byes into the semifinal round and unlike the Sun Belt the top two seeds took advantage Monday night. Both schools are assured of at-large bids as well. The Bulldogs may be the national name, but the Gaels have taken four of the last five in the series including last year’s WCC Championship Game. They also won both regular season meetings with Mikey Lewis providing the necessary spark off the bench, averaging 17 points while making 7 of 19 3-pointers in those wins.
Other games to watch
ACC: Virginia Tech (13-18) vs. Cal (13-18), 4:30 p.m. on ACCN. Welcome to the “Dreaded First Round” in Charlotte, which is only better now than “the bottom three schools that don’t qualify” in today’s bloated conference world. The Hokies won the regular season meeting Jan. 11 out west, shooting 57% from the field in a 71-68 victory.
The Golden Bears rank last in the ACC in shooting, and they allow the third most points per game in the conference. Cal is also coming off a four-overtime loss at Notre Dame. They might be a little gassed, even after a few days off.
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