Bracketology: How the Hoyas' upset changes their tourney outlook originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
Any day where five ranked teams fall to unranked foes is a big day in college basketball. The Georgetown Hoyas were one of the teams doing the upsetting on Wednesday night, nabbing their biggest win of the season on the road at No. 15 Creighton.
With such a pivotal win, it’s an opportunity to take stock of where Georgetown sits in terms of postseason competition. Unsurprisingly, the 5-8 overall record does the Hoyas no favors, but playing in March is not such a far-fetched idea in a weird season.
Before getting started, yes, Georgetown has to continue to win games. That’s obvious, and they aren’t getting into either the NCAA Tournament or the NIT without wins. But, the team showed it can compete and, in the case of Creighton, beat the teams at the top of the Big East. And being in such a competitive conference means that some wins can turn the fate of a team quickly.
Not getting ahead of ourselves, mind you, the Hoyas are not currently in any tournament field projection. None of them. Not even in NIT projections. Work has to be done. Since coming back from a coronavirus pause, however, they are making gains.
It helps too that there is no .500-rule when it comes to at-larges in either tournament.
The win over Creighton is Georgetown’s first Quadrant 1 win of the season (Quadrants and the NET being the biggest factor in the eyes of the committee). It was impressive, it was on the road and likely will remain a Q1 victory all the way until season’s end.
More importantly, it jumped the Hoyas from No. 129 in the NET to No. 110. If that’s what a key victory can do, then by all means the postseason is possible.
That’s huge and a big first step. The more of those they rack up, the better. It was also the team’s second win in a row to post a 3-5 Big East record. But the rest of the Hoyas’ showing in the quadrant system is not kind to their resume.
Quadrant 1: 1-5
Quadrant 2: 1-1
Quadrant 3: 2-2
Quadrant 4: 1-0
Of the team’s eight remaining scheduled games, six are Q2 or higher. If the Hoyas finish above .500 in those opportunities, an NIT berth is possible. The remaining two games (vs. Butler, at DePaul) are must-wins for any postseason consideration.
Some people may think reading this is outlandish and they don’t have a shot. Well, there are 34 teams ahead of the Hoyas in the NET that don’t have a Q1 victory. With that being a huge factor in tournament selection and more opportunities to earn them, don’t write off their season just yet.
An NCAA Tournament bid would certainly take a lot, though not impossible. The NIT is what is more likely if Georgetown can pull out those key wins.
That may not be Georgetown’s traditional standards but would be huge for head coach Patrick Ewing to get his second postseason bid in his strenuous tenure with the team.
There’s a saying that once is a chance, twice is a coincidence and three times is a pattern. The Hoyas got their chance, now they need to get to a pattern by March.