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Shall we dance? NCAA Tournament outlook five days before Selection Sunday

Noah Frank | nfrank@wtop.com

March 8, 2016, 2:05 AM

Where do teams sit just days from Selection Sunday? See the explanation of our model below and flip through the slides for outlooks on top seeds, bubble teams and all our local schools. (Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Kansas seniors, from left, Jamari Traylor, Perry Ellis, Hunter Mickelson and Evan Manning, right, pose for a photograph before an NCAA college basketball game against Iowa State in Lawrence, Kan., Saturday, March 5, 2016. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)
The #1 seeds Kansas, Villanova, Xavier, North Carolina Both Virginia and Michigan State are very close behind here, so this list is pretty fluid for now. The Big East Tournament will likely determine which of the Nova/Xavier duo holds the top line, while the ACC Tourney will do the same for UNC/UVa. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)
AP Photo/Orlin Wagner
during the first half of the college basketball game at McKale Center on January 30, 2016 in Tucson, Arizona.
Last four byes UConn, Cincinnati, USC, Oregon State UConn and Cincinnati are part of the mess of teams fighting for the American Conference crown. Oregon State played its way in last week, while USC nearly played its way out. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
MEMPHIS, TN - MARCH 14: TaShawn Thomas #35 of the Houston Cougars grabs a rebound against the Louisville Cardinals during the semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament at FedExForum on March 14, 2014 in Memphis, Tennessee. (Photo by Joe Murphy/Getty Images)
Last four in Houston, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Michigan I haven’t seen a lot of love for Houston elsewhere, but the Cougars are 3-3 against the Top 50 and 7-6 against the Top 100 with 22 wins. With SMU out, a deep run the conference tournament could seal them a spot. Wisconsin has played well of late, but they still have 11 losses, including some really bad ones. Both Gonzaga and Syracuse need good conference tournament showings to stay in the field. Michigan is in the same boat in the B1G, needing a win (or more likely two) to feel good come Sunday. (Getty Images/Joe Murphy)
Getty Images/Joe Murphy
WEST LONG BRANCH, NJ - JANUARY 9: Micah Seaborn #10 of the Monmouth Hawks attempts a shot between Ayron Hutton #5 and Daniel Harris #23 of the Quinnipiac Bobcats during the second half of a college basketball game at the MAC on January 9, 2016 in West Long Branch, New Jersey. Monmouth won 88-74. (Photo by Rich Schultz /Getty Images)
First four out Valparaiso, Temple, Florida State, Monmouth Valpo and Monmouth each suffered crushing losses Monday, dropping both very much into the gray area right now. With no chance to help themselves, they may need teams above to back their way down the field. The model actually has both Chattanooga and Hawaii sandwiched in above Florida State, but both are conference leaders and are favorites to snag automatic bids, so they aren’t currently counted here. (Getty Images/Rich Schultz)
Getty Images/Rich Schultz
NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 27: Shembari Phillips #25 of the Tennessee Volunteers defends against Joe McDonald #22 of the George Washington Colonials at Barclays Center on November 27, 2015 in Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
Next four out Florida, George Washington, Wichita State, Vanderbilt Most people have both Wichita State and Vandy in, but the numbers are tenuous at best for both. The Shockers (RPI: 51, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100) really didn’t beat anyone and lost twice to Northern Iowa down the stretch, including their conference tournament semifinal. Selecting them would seem unfair to teams with better resumes at this point. Vanderbilt (RPI: 48, 4-8 vs. Top 50, 7-12 vs. Top 100) still has room to improve in the SEC Tournament, but it’s hard to see why anyone is as bullish on them as they are right now. (Getty Images/Mike Stobe)
Getty Images/Mike Stobe
during their game at John Paul Jones Arena on February 27, 2016 in Charlottesville, Virginia.
Local teams in the field Virginia (2), Maryland (4), VCU (9) Our model has Virginia as the fifth-best overall team in the field, just one spot off the 1 line. They’ll likely land anywhere between a 1 and a 3 based on the ACC Tournament. Maryland might be more volatile, with as low as a 6 seed in play with a first-round flop, and as high as the top of the 3 line or even a 2 possible with a Big Ten Championship. The Rams are probably safe, but could land anywhere between a 7 and an 11 seed, depending on the A-10 Tourney in Brooklyn this weekend. (Getty Images/Patrick McDermott)
Getty Images/Patrick McDermott
during their game at Cameron Indoor Stadium on January 9, 2016 in Durham, North Carolina.
Local teams on the bubble George Washington (next 4 out), Virginia Tech (out) Mike Lonergan’s club could have really used a win in its regular season finale at Davidson, but it wasn’t to be. Now the Colonials will have to make some noise in the A-10 Tournament, probably needing at least two wins to sneak into the field. In the meantime, where did Virginia Tech come from? Don’t look now, but the Hokies are making a late charge. At 18-13, with an RPI of 85, there is still plenty of work left. But if they can beat the Florida State/Boston College winner, topple Miami again on a neutral floor, then do the same to Virginia? With 21 wins, including 8 in the Top 50, they’d go into Selection Sunday one of the hottest teams in the nation. (Getty Images/Streeter Lecka)
Getty Images/Streeter Lecka
PHILADELPHIA, PA - MARCH 5: L.J. Peak #0 of the Georgetown Hoyas drives to the basket as Darryl Reynolds #45 of the Villanova Wildcats defends during the second half in an NCAA college basketball game on March 5, 2016 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Villanova defeated Georgetown 84-71. (Photo by Rich Schultz /Getty Images)
Local teams that need to win their conference tournament Georgetown, George Mason, Howard It’s been a disappointing season for the Hoyas, who now need to win four games in as many days at Madison Square Garden to keep their season alive. They’ll play DePaul Wednesday for a chance at a rematch with Villanova Thursday. The Patriots haven’t exactly celebrated the 10th anniversary of their magical Final Four run in style, and need to win five straight games to steal the automatic A-10 bid, starting with St. Louis on Wednesday. Howard starts the MEAC tourney with an NC Central team they’ve already beaten. They’ll need to do it again and kick-start some momentum to swipe the conference title. (Getty Images/Rich Schultz)
Getty Images/Rich Schultz
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Kansas seniors, from left, Jamari Traylor, Perry Ellis, Hunter Mickelson and Evan Manning, right, pose for a photograph before an NCAA college basketball game against Iowa State in Lawrence, Kan., Saturday, March 5, 2016. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)
during the first half of the college basketball game at McKale Center on January 30, 2016 in Tucson, Arizona.
MEMPHIS, TN - MARCH 14: TaShawn Thomas #35 of the Houston Cougars grabs a rebound against the Louisville Cardinals during the semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament at FedExForum on March 14, 2014 in Memphis, Tennessee. (Photo by Joe Murphy/Getty Images)
WEST LONG BRANCH, NJ - JANUARY 9: Micah Seaborn #10 of the Monmouth Hawks attempts a shot between Ayron Hutton #5 and Daniel Harris #23 of the Quinnipiac Bobcats during the second half of a college basketball game at the MAC on January 9, 2016 in West Long Branch, New Jersey. Monmouth won 88-74. (Photo by Rich Schultz /Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 27: Shembari Phillips #25 of the Tennessee Volunteers defends against Joe McDonald #22 of the George Washington Colonials at Barclays Center on November 27, 2015 in Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
during their game at John Paul Jones Arena on February 27, 2016 in Charlottesville, Virginia.
during their game at Cameron Indoor Stadium on January 9, 2016 in Durham, North Carolina.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - MARCH 5: L.J. Peak #0 of the Georgetown Hoyas drives to the basket as Darryl Reynolds #45 of the Villanova Wildcats defends during the second half in an NCAA college basketball game on March 5, 2016 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Villanova defeated Georgetown 84-71. (Photo by Rich Schultz /Getty Images)
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December 19, 2024 | (Noah Frank)

WASHINGTON — It is hard to remember a year with more parity throughout college basketball than this one.

No team has fewer than four losses. Kansas (27-4), the best team in the country, lost to Oklahoma State (12-19), which lost to Missouri State (13-19), which lost to Southeast Missouri State (5-24), one of the very worst of the 351 Division I teams.

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Of last year’s Sweet 16, two teams (UCLA and NC State) will miss the field without a miracle run to their respective conference tournament championships, with another on the bubble (Gonzaga), and a fourth banned from postseason play (Louisville).

The team with the top recruit in the nation, LSU, likely needs to win their conference tournament to have any chance of getting in.

With the field more unpredictable and wide open than ever, we built our own bracketology model, with the intent to attempt to predict the field of 68 as it is announced on Sunday. We have a few notable differences from some other sites, as you will see in the slides above.

Our methodology relies on record, conference rating (per KenPom.com), RPI, BPI, Top 50 wins, record against the top 100, bad losses, and additional bonuses or penalties for making the finals of and winning a conference tournament championship. It’s our first run, so it may not be perfect, but so far there aren’t any real outlying results, as far as we can tell. Sunday will be the first true test.

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