WASHINGTON — Before we get into the particulars, this year’s bracket was as tough as any I can remember to try to seed. It’s why we created the model, to see how well we could predict human behavior. And for the most part, our guesses were validated up and down the seeds (nailed three of four 1s and 2s, all four 3s, didn’t miss by more than 2 seeds on any team). But the bubble … oh, the bubble.
The selection committee made a couple grave errors in its final decisions, which we’ll get into in a bit. But let’s also take a look at some of the threads that wove their ways through the decisions that were made, and where they leave us.
(Getty Images/Andy Lyons)
Getty Images/Andy Lyons
The committee loves the Pac-12
We had the same seven Pac-12 teams in the field as ended up making it in, but had each seeded at a lower spot than they ended up, except for Colorado (8 in each) and Arizona (4 in ours, 6 in real life). Oregon earned a surprising top seed, though we would have had them in as the second 2 seed, and considering their dominant victory in their conference tournament championship, they’re not an awful choice to represent the West.
One might have expected a team like Oregon State to have to play in through the First Four, considering the Beavers fell shy of 20 wins, finished .500 in the Pac-12 and had no marquee wins out of conference. Instead, they got a 7 seed, and no team from the Conference of Champions got below an 8.
(AP Photo/John Locher)
AP Photo/John Locher
The committee thinks the American is a major conference
The inclusions of not only a very iffy Temple team (RPI 63, BPI 76, KenPom 86, zero non-conference wins outside the top 200, and a loss at East Carolina) was bad enough. But to throw Tulsa in, too? A team outside the top 50 in all three rankings as well? After getting dismantled by a mediocre Memphis team (for the second time in two weeks) to give them 11 losses? Unbelievable.
(Getty Images/Mike Ehrmann)
Getty Images/Mike Ehrmann
The committee hates the mid majorsAll hail Monmouth, the giant killer that never was. The Hawks, though, probably didn’t deserve a bid. Their four big road wins over major conference teams looked great until two of those teams (UCLA and Georgetown) turned into pumpkins. But to leave out Saint Mary’s? What are we even doing here?
The Gaels didn’t have a very tough schedule, but they won 27 games, beat Gonzaga twice, and took Cal — a four seed, remember? — to the wire in Berkeley. An RPI of 41, a BPI of 31, playing in a conference rated above the two-bid Missouri Valley … all that wasn’t enough to even be in the first four OUT of the tournament. It’s hard to understand why.
(AP Photo/Mike Groll)
AP Photo/Mike Groll
The committee doesn’t care about horrific conference tournament losses
Vanderbilt absolutely has the talent to be in the NCAA Tournament, but has no business being in this field based on what they’ve actually done this year. The Commodores (19-13) failed to win 20 games in an SEC that ranked comfortably last of the six major conferences. Their best non-conference win was an overtime home victory over Stony Brook. They had one road win over a Top 100 team.
Vandy came into the SEC Tournament an easy win away from a pity pick at large berth, then promptly lost that game to Tennessee. It doesn’t matter how the game went down — that it was ever close in the first place shows why this team didn’t deserve to be in, and the committee ignored that. See also: Tulsa.
(AP Photo/Mark Humphrey, File)
AP Photo/Mark Humphrey, File
The Big Ten will be upset, but they don’t really get to be
Did Michigan State deserve a 1 seed after winning the Big Ten Tournament? Probably, but I’d rather be in Sparty’s pod than Oregon’s. I had Maryland and Indiana on the 5 line and Purdue on the 4, so pretty close, all in all. I also had Iowa as a 7 seed after their tremendous fall from grace. And a 7 actually seems high for Wisconsin, a team with six losses outside the top 50 and three outside the top 100.
Plus Michigan got it, after nearly getting dumped by Northwestern in the conference tournament, only to draw Tulsa, easily the weakest of the First Four teams, with an over-seeded Notre Dame awaiting the winner. Not bad!
(AP Photo/AJ Mast)
AP Photo/AJ Mast
The West could be wild
One of the great annual traditions in college basketball is when Duke is eliminated from the NCAA Tournament. That might not come as early as America would like this season. UNC Wilmington is no slouch, but they haven’t beaten any good teams out of conference. If Yale, a team Duke beat by 19 earlier in the year, topples Baylor, watch out. A really talented, athletic St. Joe’s club could provide a knockout blow of top-seeded Oregon and open the lane.
The other half of the West offers the current and former versions of HAVOC with Texas and VCU, a potential UT-A&M rematch, and the promise of the best player in the country, Buddy Hield, fulfilling his senior destiny in March.
(AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
AP Photo/Julie Jacobson
Possible early upsets
Don’t come yelling when these don’t work out, but there are some intriguing potential upsets out there. Michigan is much better than Tulsa, and could pose a challenge for defensive sieve Notre Dame, whose 172nd ranked defensive efficiency is worse than any non-16 seed in the field. Stephen F. Austin is a highly underrated 14 seed, but draws a tough match in a very good West Virginia club. As well as Seton Hall played down the stretch, they’re up against a nasty 11 seed in Gonzaga. And if the idiom that senior guards win in March holds, watch out for Iona’s AJ English, a potential future NBA player who can single-handedly take over a game.
And then there’s South Dakota State. Maryland’s matchup doesn’t bother me as much as their sloppy play down the stretch coupled with a cross-country trip to the always unpredictable Spokane. If the Terps struggle, they’ll find themselves in a true road environment that loves its underdogs.
(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
AP Photo/Michael Conroy
Possible sleepers
To me, a real sleeper has to exist outside of the top 5 lines of seeds. Sure, Kentucky could go to the Final Four, but would that really be a surprise? If you’re looking for a shocker, the Zags are intriguing. After some near big upsets early, they reformed their team on fly to replace injured players, and are playing their best basketball of the season. I also already mentioned St. Joe’s, who might have the best matchup in place to take down a 1 seed before the Sweet 16.
(AP Photo/John Locher)
AP Photo/John Locher
Final Four
Despite the game’s deep parity this year, there are a few teams that have played above the rest, and it would be a surprise not to see them in Houston. Kansas is the closest thing we have to a national favorite, while Michigan State looks as strong as ever. Purdue could be an interesting team to keep an eye on, but my bet is the Final Four includes nothing lower than a 4 seed.
(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
