The NBA Finals are a rematch of last year, but the matchup itself will look much different. What to watch for as the Warriors and Cavs square off again.
Transition offense
No team scored better in transition than the Warriors, who averaged better than 20 points per game on the fast break. They were slowed by Oklahoma City’s length and athleticism in the Western Conference Finals, but should once again be the fastest team on the floor in the Finals. LeBron is a terror to guard one-on-one in transition, but Cleveland lacks the depth and quality of ballhandlers that Golden State possesses that make them so deadly on the break, ranking just 19th in the league with 11.9 fast break points per game.
Advantage: Warriors
(Getty Images/Ezra Shaw)
Getty Images/Ezra Shaw
Turnovers
Cleveland is one of the stingier teams in the league when it comes to giving the ball away, committing just 13.3 turnovers per game, sixth-lowest in the NBA. If Golden State has an Achilles heel, it’s been their inability to protect the basketball at times. Their 15 turnovers per game are eighth-worst in the league, worse than every playoff team except for two teams they’ve eliminated en route to the Finals, the Thunder and Rockets. Golden State can’t afford to lose the turnover battle badly (they were +28 against the Rockets, even against the Trail Blazers, and -6 against the Thunder) if they want to repeat as champions.
Advantage: Cavaliers
(Getty Images/Maddie Meyer)
Getty Images/Maddie Meyer
Offensive Rebounding
The Cavaliers are a combined +83 in their 14 playoff games thus far, after demolishing the Raptors by 45 rebounds over their six-game series. Tristan Thompson has led the way on the offensive glass in each series, pulling down 59 total offensive rebounds so far in the playoffs. He was a terror in last year’s Finals as well, pulling down 32 offensive boards in the six games. Golden State really struggled against Oklahoma City, the top rebounding team in the regular season, as the Warriors were out-rebounded by 35 over the seven-game set. It’s hard to outshoot the Warriors, but second-chance opportunities can help make up for the difference.
Advantage: Cavaliers
(Getty Images/Pool)
Getty Images/Pool
Mismatches
The Warriors have a way of attacking a weakness until their opponents are forced into an uncomfortable decision. They use heavy motion and screens to drag the worst defender out to guard Steph Curry, far from the basket. That forces opponents to decide whether it’s worth it to keep those players in, even if they are solid offensive contributors. When they played the Spurs, Tim Duncan was a -16 in just 27 minutes over two games against Golden State, and didn’t even play the final matchup. Look for the Warriors to do the same to Kevin Love in the Finals, making him guard faster shooters on the perimeter to try to render him ineffective.
Advantage: Warriors
(Getty Images/Jason Miller)
Getty Images/Jason Miller
Coaching
Steve Kerr was the NBA’s Coach of the Year, an award he easily could have won last year as well. He and his team’s adjustments when trailing against the Grizzlies (putting Andrew Bogut on Tony Allen) and Cavs (starting Andre Iguodala on LeBron) last year, as well as this year against the Thunder (putting Iguodala on Durant), have keyed each series victory. Tyronn Lue has settled in since replacing the fired David Blatt, but has no experience in a playoff series in which his team isn’t heavily favored. If and when the time comes for one of these coaches to make a key adjustment on the fly to help turn the series, only one coach has the track record to make us believe he’ll be able to pull it off.
Advantage: Warriors
(Getty Images/Steve Dykes)
WASHINGTON — Even if the processes by which they arrived at the NBA Finals was surprising, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors have each returned to set up a rematch of last year’s title series. And while Cleveland is certainly healthier than at this point last season, one could make a solid argument that the Warriors are also better than they were last year.
With Kevin Love hurt coming in and Kyrie Irving breaking his foot in Game 1, the 2015 Finals devolved into LeBron vs. The World. James put up a valiant effort, but the basketball itself wasn’t pretty, often grinding into 1-on-1, shot clock-killing post ups. With a healthy roster that mowed down the Eastern Conference, this year’s Cavs team should have a much different approach.
The Warriors eeked out a Christmas Day win in a low-scoring affair at home, then shredded the Cavs in an embarrassing display January 18 in Cleveland in the teams’ only two meetings thus far. Considering it’s been more than four months since they’ve met, it’s hard to extrapolate too much from these two games.
But we know what these teams do well, as well as where they struggle. With that in mind, flip through the slides above to see the five components of the game that will likely decide the powerhouse rematch of the top seeds in each conference.
