WASHINGTON – The narrative is easy, and if it were free-flowing earlier this week, the floodgates are now open: Cleveland is suddenly the City of Champions.
After the Indians’ surprisingly smooth 4-1 ALCS victory over the Toronto Blue Jays, the stars seem to be aligning. As seemingly every sportswriter has tweeted in the past 12 hours, Game 1 of the World Series will take place at Progressive Field the same night that the Cleveland Cavaliers are awarded their rings for last year’s NBA Finals championship.
But if all that seems like it might be a little too perfect, well, it just may be. There is both historical precedent and very real, practical reasoning why the Indians are still a long way from glory just yet.
ESPN Stats and Info tweeted out a figure that may seem to counter that.
Teams to win first 6 games of postseason:
1970 Orioles
1976 Reds
2007 Rockies
2014 Royals
2016 Indians(via @eliassports)
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 18, 2016
A couple things – first, only two of the previous teams actually won the World Series. Furthermore, in the 70s, there was no Division Series round. So to start the postseason 6-0 meant to sweep the best-of-five League Championship Series, then start the World Series with a 3-0 lead. Of course, those two teams went on to win it all.
Only two teams have begun the postseason 6-0 with the inclusion of the Division Series round – the 2007 Rockies and the 2014 Royals. You’ll note that neither of them won the World Series, with the Rockies actually not winning a single game past the LCS.
In fact, of the eight teams that have swept the League Championship Series on their way to a World Series appearance, seven of those eight have lost the Fall Classic. Only the 1995 Atlanta Braves actually went on to win the World Series. So, perhaps losing a game was actually a good thing for Cleveland.
All of this historical precedent is based in small samples, of course, and has no direct bearing on this year’s Cleveland team, except to say this – perhaps there’s a good reason that those who have yet to overcome postseason adversity struggle once they lose a game on the biggest stage.
More practical obstacles to Cleveland’s aspirations include their possible opponent, as well as their own impaired health. If they end up facing the Dodgers, they’ll draw the best pitcher on the planet at least twice against them. If they face the Cubs, they’ll be up against the most complete team in baseball, a 107 pythagorean win club replete with excellent pitching, a potent lineup and historically good defense. And they’ll do all that while missing two of their best starters, with a third’s availability up in the air.
According to Baseball Reference, four of Cleveland’s pitchers were worth 2.9 WAR or better this year. Both Carlos Carrasco (3.6) and Danny Salazar (2.9) are lost for the rest of the year with injury, while the return of Trevor Bauer (3.0) will hinge on whether he can throw a baseball without his right pinkie finger turning into a broken fountain pen. Cleveland has mitigated these losses so far thanks to a ludicrous performance by its bullpen, which has posted a 1.67 ERA with nearly 11.5 K/9 IP and a sub-1.00 WHIP in 32.1 innings of work.
That’s an average of better than four innings of work per game, with an average of less than one run allowed.
But even if the Cleveland bullpen continues to pitch well, a simple combination of natural regression and batted-ball luck could be enough to put some dents into that ERA. This is especially true if they run into the Cubs, whose offense led all of baseball in both plate appearances (6,335) and walks (656).
The Indians are devoid of household name-level, superstar talent. They are easy-going and easy to root for. But they will almost certainly be underdogs again when the World Series begins, so don’t go crowning them just yet.
