This story is Part 2 of WTOP’s three-part series “On the Move: The D.C. region’s population trends.” Read Part 1 on the D.C. region becoming more diverse here.
The D.C. region is aging, a shift that experts say is the result of a declining birth rate, expensive housing and flexibility that comes with hybrid or remote work opportunities.
Neighborhoods across the area added more people 65 and older than under 18, according to a WTOP analysis of local census data from the midway point of 2024. The data, released this summer, showed similar trends nationally. Overall, the U.S. population 65 and older rose by over 3%, while the under 18 population decreased by 0.2%, the Census Bureau said.
In some cases, the result is a war for talent, according to Hamilton Lombard, a demographer at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.
“The talent supply is not really growing,” Lombard said. “We have some immigration, but the number of people turning 18 is going to start shrinking. You’re having communities focusing more on trying to attract workers, and some areas have historically done better than the D.C. area, at least the last decade or so, because they have a lower cost of living, and it makes them more attractive.”
Major metropolitan areas across the country are aging in similar ways, and it’s a shift that’s partially the result of losing families. The increase in housing prices during the pandemic “just didn’t come back down, and that’s made the D.C. area particularly unaffordable for a lot of families,” Lombard said.
Some families are moving to the outskirts of the D.C. region, to places such as Hagerstown, Fredericksburg or Maryland’s Eastern Shore. In some cases, those places are seeing a drop in median age, which Lombard described as unusual.
“There’s just not enough housing, and so housing costs have gotten really expensive in Maryland as a whole, and especially in some of the D.C. suburbs, but also in many of the Baltimore suburbs as well,” said Michael Bader, director of the 21st Century Cities Initiative at Johns Hopkins University. “So that has diminished opportunities here.”
According to census data as of July 1, 2024, in D.C. 2,013 more people over 65 were added last year, compared to 499 people under 18. In Montgomery County, Maryland, there were over 7,000 more people 65 and older compared to 2023. There were over 1,200 more people under 18 added in 2024. Prince George’s County reported over 350 more people under 18 compared to 2023. Conversely, it added over 6,100 people 65 and older.
In Fairfax County, Virginia, there were almost 7,000 more people 65 and older compared to 2023. There were 751 more people under 18. Loudoun County reported over 3,017 more people 65 and older, and a drop of over 800 people under 18.
In Fairfax, Lombard said the number of births is down 20% over the last eight years of data available, double what’s been reported in Virginia.
“That’s really been driven by families moving out,” Lombard said. “Fairfax County has some of the highest housing prices in the country, definitely some of the highest on the East Coast.”
Remote and hybrid work schedules provide more flexibility, but Lombard said the region aging comes with consequences.
“That’s going to be a really big issue when you look at the D.C. area going forward, is how can they continue to bring in young workers when you have all these other areas really competing effectively,” Lombard said.
When the D.C. area reaches the point when the number of people turning 18 is declining, “if you don’t have more immigration, ultimately you’re going to see the labor force shrink,” Lombard said.
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