Iannelli: I think we've got to look at the independent in [the Senate District 27] race making the difference. What do you think?

The reality is that this was a very hard fought contest, the governor who had been supporting Tara Durant throughout the primary, and then during the general election, you can really see that this was a race that the Republicans were really investing, perhaps more in than any other race around the Commonwealth, at least in terms of the personal effort by the governor. It’s clear that the governor’s political future depends on having a Republican-majority Senate and a Republican-majority house. If Democrats end up with either of the chambers tonight, the next two years for the governor are going to look just as frustrating for him, legislatively, as the first two.

Miller: If [Gov. Glenn Youngkin] does not get the result that he wants, that you just mentioned that he does get both the House of Delegates and the State Senate in his last two years of his term. Do you think that, as we extrapolate into 2024, does that mean that we don't really look back on Virginia as being such a bellwether?

I think it’s clear that this looks to be pretty close. And so, having that sort of “Virginia is always a purple state” or “always a red state” or “always a blue state,” it’s always hard to do that, particularly when you’re looking at this election cycle. This is the lowest turnout year of the four years because there’s no statewide election in the Virginia midterms. And so you really want to be a little careful about exactly what all this means going into 2024. But the short term reality is that if the governor doesn’t get his majorities, that’s a defeat. And that’s going to be very frustrating for him and for Republicans legislatively. And if he does get those majorities, why then, it should be very smooth sailing, there aren’t nearly as many Republican moderates on the ballot tonight as there were four years ago or two years ago. And so it’s pretty clear that the Republican caucus, if it’s in the majority, will be very, very consistent. And very quick to do what the governor wants.

Sotis: I just picked up in your last answer a hint of maybe we're overblowing this whole situation of Virginia leading the country or giving us clues about the country, or did you not go that far?

Well, I think it’s important to recognize that we’re the only game in town. We’re the closest thing to a purple state on election day in 2023. And so, people are going to look to us as an indication of where things are. We will see, though I think, the answer to the question of “Is a 15-week abortion ban a useful thing for Republicans to talk about?” We should be able to know the answer to that question, at least, for the national conversation next year.

What to make of the Virginia election results so far

Stephen Farnsworth, a political-science professor at the University of Mary Washington, joined WTOP’s Capitol Hill correspondent Mitchell Miller and anchors Dimitri Sotis and Nick Iannelli on Tuesday to share what he makes of the results of the Virginia election results so far.

More local election news

Q: Iannelli: I think we've got to look at the independent in [the Senate District 27] race making the difference. What do you think?
The reality is that this was a very hard fought contest, the governor who had been supporting Tara Durant throughout the primary, and then during the general election, you can really see that this was a race that the Republicans were really investing, perhaps more in than any other race around the Commonwealth, at least in terms of the personal effort by the governor. It’s clear that the governor’s political future depends on having a Republican-majority Senate and a Republican-majority house. If Democrats end up with either of the chambers tonight, the next two years for the governor are going to look just as frustrating for him, legislatively, as the first two.

Q: Miller: If [Gov. Glenn Youngkin] does not get the result that he wants, that you just mentioned that he does get both the House of Delegates and the State Senate in his last two years of his term. Do you think that, as we extrapolate into 2024, does that mean that we don't really look back on Virginia as being such a bellwether?
I think it’s clear that this looks to be pretty close. And so, having that sort of “Virginia is always a purple state” or “always a red state” or “always a blue state,” it’s always hard to do that, particularly when you’re looking at this election cycle.

This is the lowest turnout year of the four years because there’s no statewide election in the Virginia midterms. And so you really want to be a little careful about exactly what all this means going into 2024. But the short term reality is that if the governor doesn’t get his majorities, that’s a defeat. And that’s going to be very frustrating for him and for Republicans legislatively. And if he does get those majorities, why then, it should be very smooth sailing, there aren’t nearly as many Republican moderates on the ballot tonight as there were four years ago or two years ago.

And so it’s pretty clear that the Republican caucus, if it’s in the majority, will be very, very consistent. And very quick to do what the governor wants.

Q: Sotis: I just picked up in your last answer a hint of maybe we're overblowing this whole situation of Virginia leading the country or giving us clues about the country, or did you not go that far?
Well, I think it’s important to recognize that we’re the only game in town. We’re the closest thing to a purple state on election day in 2023. And so, people are going to look to us as an indication of where things are. We will see, though I think, the answer to the question of “Is a 15-week abortion ban a useful thing for Republicans to talk about?” We should be able to know the answer to that question, at least, for the national conversation next year.