We rolled out the first version of this year’s awards model predictions at the All-Star break, when the talk around baseball was whether Max Scherzer’s dominant season would put him in the National League MVP conversation. Now, with consecutive minor back injuries that have limited him to just one start since July 6, the entire dynamic has changed.
Scherzer’s absence has tightened the field considerably, putting that award very much up for grabs once again. Cody Bellinger finally came back to Earth at the same time Ronald Acuña caught fire, potentially giving us a three-man race for the NL MVP. And while Mike Trout continues to put distance between himself and the field in the American League MVP race, the Cy Young remains potentially available to a number of hurlers.
A reminder: The model is based on relative performance in a number of statistical categories that awards voters use in their decision-making. The results are intended not to declare who is “best,” just who is expected to win each award. Here’s the race as the model sees it through the games of Sunday, Aug. 11.