American League Cy Young
Gerrit Cole: 100
Justin Verlander: 98.26
Shane Bieber: 78.87
Lance Lynn: 75.83
Charlie Morton: 74.83
Could Justin Verlander come up just shy in another Cy Young race? He’s had an incredible year, leading the league in wins, WHIP, and K/BB rate. He threw a no-hitter for the team with the best regular season record in baseball. That’s all a pretty good recipe for some hardware…in a world without Gerrit Cole. Cole won the ERA title, by a smidgen over Verlander. He led the league in strikeouts. If you combined bWAR and fWAR, the two were identical. He also had the highest strikeout rate and lowest FIP, all of which was just enough to give him the nod in the model. We already know Morton will actually finish third, which isn’t all that surprising given how tightly-bunched the rest of the pack is behind the top two.
American League MVP
Alex Bregman: 100
Mike Trout: 96.48
Marcus Semien: 92.58
Rafael Devers: 90.12
Xander Bogaerts: 88.70
Ah, the annual Mike Trout debate. Trout was well on his way to his third MVP in the last six seasons before his year was cut short prematurely on Sept. 7. While he still led the AL in OPS, that opened the door for Alex Bregman, who jumped ahead in a number of counting stats (runs, RBI, XBH) for the 107-win Astros. In his final 19 games after Trout’s injury, Bregman posted a 1.195 OPS and slugged seven home runs, walking 19 times against just seven strikeouts. If there is any recency bias in the voting, his strong finish – like Yelich’s last year – could be the difference. In addition, there is no surprise around these parts that Marcus Semien snagged third place after his monster season. It will be interesting to see where D.J. LeMahieu (eighth in the model) lands in the final vote.
National League Cy Young
Jacob deGrom: 100
Max Scherzer: 96.35
Stephen Strasburg: 95.19
Hyun-Jin Ryu: 90.27
Jack Flaherty: 88.03
Perhaps the biggest surprise in terms of the difference between the model’s results and the actual top three vote-getters comes in the National League Cy Young race. These awards are voted on before the postseason, but to not see Stephen Strasburg’s name in the actual top three shows that ERA (he was 10th) still holds a lot of weight. Strasburg led the NL in wins and innings pitched, was second in both WAR measures, and second in strikeouts. He was never going to win the award, but he may split some votes with Max Scherzer, the curse of pitching for the same team as another ace. As it is, an award that Scherzer seemed to have on lockdown until his midseason injuries is projected to go, once again, to Jacob deGrom.
National League MVP
Cody Bellinger: 100
Christian Yelich: 97.68
Anthony Rendon: 92.81
Ronald Acuña: 89.95
Pete Alonso: 88.39
Much like Strasburg, if these awards included the postseason, Anthony Rendon might have run away with this one. But after a torrid August and early September, he really struggled down the stretch of the regular season hitting just .185 with two home runs his final 20 games. That was enough that, despite Christian Yelich’s season-ending injury, he wasn’t able to close ground in the model. Rendon won the RBI race, but ceded the batting title to Yelich, all while Bellinger righted the ship over the season’s final two weeks, and took home a Gold Glove to boot. This one could still be very close at the top, as injuries are always tough to weigh. But the model likes Bellinger.
