Fairfax County leaders may be facing a $131 million budget gap as they work toward a final version of a spending plan for fiscal 2027.
During a joint school board and board of supervisors meeting Tuesday, Fairfax County Chief Financial Officer Christina Jackson said while the estimate is preliminary, county leaders are planning ahead.
The combined projected shortfall between the county government and Fairfax County Public Schools is $131.5 million. According to county documents, officials are projecting $225.5 million in new revenue, which isn’t expected to be enough to cover school system and county government spending.
Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Jeff McKay described the estimate as a fiscal forecast.
“As we approach budget adoption, obviously these numbers will tighten up,” McKay said. “We hope they go in the direction that we want them to go in, but we always plan conservatively to try to prevent surprises downstream.”
The estimates don’t account for potential revenue from the new meals tax, which is scheduled to go into effect on Jan. 1.
The county is expecting lower growth in its real estate tax base for fiscal 2027, compared with fiscal 2026. Affordability is low, county documents said, and active residential listings for sale are up 41%.
Largely because of losses in office property values, meanwhile, nonresidential values are expected to decline.
Uncertainty in federal funding is also playing a role, Jackson said. For one, revenue from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program for administrative expenses is expected to drop $6.7 million.
Northern Virginia is still feeling the impact of federal job cuts, Jackson said, and the recent government shutdown likely slowed discretionary spending and delayed contracts.
Ahead of the budget cycle, Jackson said Fairfax County agencies have been asked to submit options for cuts worth 5% of their budgets. An employee portal received over 850 suggestions for cuts.
“The easy cuts have now been taken, and we’re trying to be mindful as we work through some of those reduction opportunities to see what might be possible given this climate,” she said.
Leigh Burden, Fairfax County schools’ chief financial officer, said, “No new resources were considered in this fiscal forecast. Departments were encouraged to review their budgets and repurpose existing resources to fund their programmatic needs.”
In fiscal 2026, the school division increased class sizes by one student, cut central office positions, cut some travel and reduced teacher raises.
At the county level, 189 positions were cut in the last budget process.
Superintendent Michelle Reid is scheduled to unveil her proposed budget Jan. 22, and County Executive Bryan Hill will present his Feb. 17.
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