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Democrats always knew they faced a difficult political map to retain their narrow majority in the U.S. Senate this election year.
Maryland’s U.S. Senate seat opened up with the retirement of longtime Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin, but it was initially not considered in play, since voters hadn’t elected a Republican senator in more than four decades.
But that changed when former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan became the GOP nominee in the race against Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks.
Democratic leaders suddenly had to consider how much they were going to spend on a race the party originally felt they could easily win.
Overall contributions to the candidates have soared to well over $80 million, easily making it the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the state’s history.
Alsobrooks has sought to blunt the popularity of the former governor by emphasizing the importance of the race in national terms, pointing out that Republicans can retake control of the U.S. Senate, by just flipping a few states.
Hogan has distanced himself from former President Donald Trump and has pledged not to undermine abortion rights in a state where registered Democrats far outnumber Republicans.
While political analysts say Hogan has run a solid campaign, he always faced an uphill battle in a state that is very blue.
The latest polls indicate he trails Alsobrooks, but he’s also forced Democrats to put a lot of resources into her campaign.
And Democrats have plenty of challenges in other states, as they try to hold onto their 51-49 majority.
Senate control runs through Big Sky country
Democrats were dealt a blow when Sen. Joe Manchin announced he was not going to seek reelection in West Virginia. He also left the Democratic Party to become independent.
Republican Gov. Jim Justice is now heavily favored to become West Virginia’s newest senator in a state that is deep red, flipping the seat to the GOP.
That would mean Democrats could only lose one more seat out of 33 other contests.
Republicans are feeling increasingly confident that the seat could be the one held by Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana.
“The Republicans really should be able to flip the Senate this year,” said Kyle Kondik, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.
While Kondik noted nothing in politics is guaranteed, it does appear Tester is in trouble.
Montana is also a very red state and Tester has bucked the political odds for many years.
But Tester is now widely considered one of the most endangered Democrats, as he fights to stay in office against Republican Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and businessman.
Polls indicate he trails Sheehy and Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved the race from “tossup” to “leans Republican.”
The stakes are so high that more than $240 million has been spent on the race, which comes out to over $300 per registered voter in the state.
No other state has had more money spent per voter than Montana.
Other races to watch
Republicans are hoping to do more than flip two seats and their candidates have closed the polling gap in several other races.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is facing a tough challenge from Republican former hedge fund manager Dave McCormick, who lost the GOP Senate nomination two years ago to Dr. Mehmet Oz.
Oz, a celebrity surgeon, was defeated by Democrat John Fetterman.
McCormick has been gaining in recent polls and Casey recently started running an ad in which he notes he supported former President Trump’s effort to put tariffs on China.
In another battleground state, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin has also not shied away from noting in an ad that she worked to get Trump to sign her “Made in America” bill to help the manufacturing industry.
Baldwin is in a competitive race with Republican Eric Hovde, a banking executive.
The Senate seat in Michigan is open, with the retirement of longtime Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to keep the seat in the Democratic column, in another race that appears to be close.
Republican Mike Rogers, a former Michigan congressman who at one time chaired the House Intelligence Committee, is running against Slotkin.
“There’s some real upside potential for Republicans to get beyond 51 seats,” Kondik said.
One potential bright spot for Democrats may be in Texas, a state where the party for years has been trying to win back a Senate seat.
Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is still favored, but Democratic Rep. Collin Allred has been getting closer in recent polls.
Allread, a former NFL linebacker, has been able to raise a lot of money.
But Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke also had strong fundraising in 2018 and Cruz narrowly defeated him.
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