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The selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate has generated plenty of buzz, but history suggests the veepstakes may not be that important.
“There’s not a lot of great evidence that running mates really matter all that much, even in their home state,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
“I really think this election comes down to the seven states that were decided by less than three points in 2020 — North Carolina and Georgia in the Southeast, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the industrial North, Arizona and Nevada out West,” said Kondik.
But he added that while he thinks the vice president selection story is often “an overrated one,” he said, “These people go from being not all that important to really important in a flash, depending on the circumstances.”
Karen Hult, professor of political science at Virginia Tech, agreed.
She said, in an instant, the critical role of a vice president was underscored in a grim way last month, with the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump.
“So that may draw people’s attention a little bit more to the vice president,” she said. “In a very close race — as this looks like it’s going to be — any effect of a vice presidential candidate, either bringing voters in or turning others away from a ticket, may well make a difference.”
Harris’ decision to bypass Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate could be an issue, said Kondik, if the Democrats lose in November.
“I don’t see how the Democrats could win the White House without Pennsylvania,” he said. “If Harris loses Pennsylvania by something less than a point, I think there’s going to be a lot of second-guessing about this pick,” Kondik said.
Hult sees the selection of Walz as having different impact with different parts of Virginia. His rural background could signal to those in places such as Southwest and Southside Virginia that “this is somebody that has an understanding of the kind of challenges” they face in their daily lives.
At the same time, said Hult, Minnesota is like Virginia in that it has a large rural sector as well has a region dominated by high-tech industries. Hult also said that — like Maryland’s Gov. Larry Hogan — Walz has been “relatively successful in working across party lines” and has a “similar ability to talk to people of differing backgrounds in ways that help them feel listened to and heard.”
So will the choice make a difference as Democrats chase electoral votes?
“I mean Virginia should not be a real swing state in this election. If it is, I think it means that something has really gone wrong for the Democrats.”
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