Homicide rates in major U.S. cities have likely fallen to historic lows last seen at the turn of the last century, with D.C. already seeing a steep decline, according to new research.
The Council on Criminal Justice released its mid-year report Thursday, stating that, in 2026, data collected from 30 American cities showed the homicide rate is down 18% compared with the first half of 2025, translating to about 215 fewer homicides this year.
Should the trend continue, the nonpartisan council states the national homicide rate will drop to its lowest levels since at least 1990. The report classifies a homicide as the unlawful killing of a person by another, which is then labeled as murder or non-negligent manslaughter. .
For D.C., homicides are down about 37% so far this year, according to the latest statistics.
Ernesto Lopez, the council’s senior research specialist, told WTOP that once all the official FBI data is released, it will show that D.C.’s decline is “steeper” compared to other parts of the country.
“It’ll be very likely that the homicide rate will be the lowest since 1900,” Lopez said. “And what we’re seeing is a continuation of that trend in the first half of 2026.”
According to D.C.’s year-to-date crime comparison data, robbery has seen an 18% decrease while sexual abuse crimes saw a 5% drop this year.
Researchers say several factors are contributing to the reduction.
“It is a combination of different factors, from large demographic social shifts, such as the aging population, to perhaps even police technology, being able to respond quicker, identify people a little bit better,” Lopez said.
Percent Change in Violent Offenses, 2019–2026
What existing research has not found is a link between the reduction in violent crime in D.C. to the deployment of the National Guard, he said.
“Cities that didn’t see National Guard deployments saw large declines in homicide as well,” Lopez said, citing other research.
“There’s some evidence base suggesting that the guard did not have a significant impact on homicide, it’s time to take a longer look, and so that’s something that I think would be the next step,” he said.
“I don’t want to suggest that the Guard can never be effective,” Lopez said, noting that the Guard is typically called in for situations local police can’t handle alone, such as natural disasters and massive protests. “I think this use of it is relatively novel.”
“While numbers are going down in many cities, homicide still is too high. You have many jurisdictions that are well above the national average, and … there are plenty of homicide victims,” Lopez said.
He said more research is needed to determine what leads to violence in communities.
“That way if we do have another increase, we can you turn back to strategies that have proven to be effective,” Lopez said.
“Aggravated assault is high, has gone up recently in D.C., and so those are people who you know generally suffered serious injuries, and so there’s still a lot of you know work to be done when it comes to overall violence in the U.S.”
Percent Change in Property Offenses, 2019–2026
WTOP’s Tracy Johnke and José Umaña and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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