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D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser’s decision not to seek reelection is triggering what could be the biggest political shake-up in the District in decades.
Political analyst Julius Hobson Jr., an adjunct professor at George Washington University, said the announcement was not a surprise.
“There were signs, her primary staff person left, and she had not held any fundraisers all year,” he said.
News of senior adviser Beverly Perry’s departure was among the indicators that raised questions about whether Bowser would seek a fourth term.
Hobson said the timing sets off a domino effect. Several D.C. Council members are already preparing campaigns for mayor or for D.C.’s delegate to Congress. Ward 1’s Brianne Nadeau has announced she will not run again, and Ward 8’s Trayon White faces a trial on federal bribery charges.
That could leave multiple council seats open in addition to the mayor’s office.
“We have never had that happen since 1974,” Hobson said. “Normally, the most that council has turned over in any election is two. So we are going to have a substantial new council come January of 2027.”
He said he expects the June primary to be one of the most competitive in city history and predicted a bigger turnout than usual. Hobson compared the situation to 1974, when 15 candidates ran for a single council seat.
Ideological divide ahead
Among the names being rumored for a run are At-Large Council member Kenyan McDuffie and Ward 4 Council member Janeese Lewis George. Neither has formally launched a campaign. Hobson said Lewis George, one of the council’s most progressive members, could make the mayor’s race an ideological showdown.
“We are going to see an ideological fight there,” he said.
Challenges for the next mayor
Whoever wins will inherit major challenges, including crime and housing affordability.
“The cost of buying a home is up, even if the Federal Reserve Board reduces interest rates,” Hobson said.
He also warned that whoever takes office will have to navigate complicated relationships with the White House and Congress.
“All of these candidates are going to be asked, are you going to knuckle under? Are you going to fight back?” he said.
Another looming issue is cost overruns on big projects, including the Commanders stadium. Hobson said tariffs could drive up costs.
“The next mayor may literally be saddled with any increased cost with regard to the stadium,” he said.
Impact on Bowser’s final years and her legacy
Bowser remains in office until January 2027, but Hobson said her announcement makes her a lame duck.
“As these candidates start to run for other offices, they are going to want to establish their own positions, and that will get reflected in city council votes on the mayor’s proposals,” he said.
Hobson said Bowser’s legacy will include efforts to bring the Washington Commanders back to D.C. with a new stadium on the RFK campus, converting office buildings into apartments post-COVID, and her role in education.
“She has taken a stronger hand in running the public school system than any previous mayor,” he said.
Crime remains an issue, but Hobson also noted that according to city data, serious crime has declined.
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