Three months has made a huge difference in the economic expectations of Northern Virginia’s business leaders, with most more concerned about the region’s economy and their company’s own prospects.
A quarterly Business Leader Survey conducted by Pinkston and the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce found 54% of business leaders are very or somewhat optimistic about their company’s performance over the next six months, down from 81% who said so in the same survey at the beginning of the year.
When asked what aspects of President Donald Trump’s administration agenda will most benefit their company, over 50% said none.
“Sixty percent of business leaders in January expected this region to grow, and now, 59% expect the region’s economy to decline. Given that they have cited federal layoffs, inflation and tariffs, those are direct results of the Trump administration’s policy decisions,” said Julie Coons, president and CEO of the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce.
Those concerned about federal agency cuts impacting business also cited supply chain issues and federal procurement.
Finding qualified talent to fill job openings remained a concern among those business leaders surveyed, a challenge also cited in the last survey. Those unfilled job openings would’ve been a great opportunity in the private sector for fired federal workers looking for jobs a few months ago, but it no longer is.
“In January, nearly half of business leaders expected to expand their staffing, and now only 12% expect to increase staffing. So the regional opportunity appears to have been diminished,” Coons said.
As for expansion, 43% of business leaders in the survey “expect their company’s capital spending” to decrease in the next six months; 35% said capital spending will not change and 21% said capital spending at their organization will increase.
D.J. Jordan, senior vice president at Pinkston, said it is no surprise that business leaders are pessimistic, considering the region’s reliance on the federal government; but he also said there are signs in the survey that show growth in Northern Virginia industries, such as technology and finance. Slightly more than half the leaders surveyed are still somewhat or very optimistic about their business performance in the next six months.
While recognizing the headwinds, Coons also sees past the gloom, and said the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce is actively developing a comprehensive report and policy strategy to address challenges.
“The level of commitment and the talent that we have in this region, and the wonderful quality of life and assets in education — we can find that path forward. It is going to be hard. It is going to be a couple of years. But I believe we can absolutely get to a new place. There is always opportunity,” she said.
The survey included 300 CEOs, corporate executives and business owners in Northern Virginia, and included participation by nine chamber organizations in the region.
The survey results are posted online.
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