It’s hard to tell what was most unusual about last season in the AL East.
Baltimore and Tampa Bay took the top two spots in the division, the first time that had ever happened. And the Yankees and Red Sox were the bottom two teams, which hadn’t occurred since before the start of divisional play.
The AL East has changed a lot from the days when the big-market behemoths would overpower the rest of the division. Tampa Bay has been a formidable operation for a while now, and the Orioles capped a swift rise from the depths of a rebuild, winning 101 games and a division title in 2023. Baltimore’s wealth of young, cost-controlled talent should make the Orioles a threat for years to come, and now they’ll take a shot at defending their AL East crown.
“We’ve proven it to ourselves that we can win a division and we can go to the playoffs, so I think you can just feel that in the atmosphere, how excited everyone is,” Baltimore outfielder Austin Hays said. “Nobody’s scared. Nobody’s nervous.”
The Yankees won 99 games and the division two seasons ago, so it’s not as though their situation is hopeless in the face of the low-spending Orioles and Rays. What’s different about the AL East these days is you can look at New York, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Toronto — and none of them seems like much of an underdog.
HOW THEY PROJECT
1. New York Yankees. After barely finishing above .500 last year, the Yankees made a major offseason splash when they acquired three-time All-Star Juan Soto. A lineup with Soto, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres is powerful enough to lift New York back atop the division, but a lot will depend on the Yankees’ health after Judge’s troublesome toe was such a problem last year. The stakes are high. Soto and Torres are entering their final season of team control, and manager Aaron Boone is under pressure to produce after last year’s disappointment.
2. Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles haven’t made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 1996-97. Now Baltimore has a chance to become a postseason mainstay. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman could be among the best players in baseball at their positions, and manager Brandon Hyde should have all sorts of options when filling out the lineup. A recent trade for Corbin Burnes gave the Orioles an ace they can lean on. Whether Baltimore can repeat as division champions may come down to how it handles the absence of star closer Félix Bautista after Tommy John surgery. Duplicating last season’s 30-16 mark in one-run games will be a tall order.
3. Toronto Blue Jays. Other teams in the AL East could breathe a sigh of relief when Shohei Ohtani stayed out west instead of signing with Toronto. The Blue Jays remain a dangerous team, however, with Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Bichette and George Springer in the fold. Kevin Gausman leads all major league pitchers over the past two seasons in the FanGraphs version of wins above replacement. Toronto has made the postseason in three of the past four seasons but hasn’t won a pennant since 1993.
4. Tampa Bay Rays. Discount the Rays at your peril — by now that’s clear. Tampa Bay is coming off a 99-win season in which it nearly held on to win the AL East despite major injury problems down the stretch. But now the Rays start the season with similar concerns. Starting pitchers Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Spring are still recovering from injuries, and the Rays traded Tyler Glasnow during the offseason. Shortstop Wander Franco’s status remains uncertain. He hasn’t played since August, when MLB and authorities in the Dominican Republic began investigating accusations that he had an improper relationship with a minor.
5. Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox have finished last two straight seasons despite finishing with a not-that-terrible 78 wins each time. Such is life in the AL East. Boston has some punch in the lineup thanks to Rafael Devers and Triston Casas, but the starting rotation has plenty of questions even after Brayan Bello pitched well enough to earn a long-term deal. Boston hired ex-pitcher Craig Breslow as its new chief baseball officer following last season, but he has his work cut out for him in the short term.
POSTSEASON WOES
As impressive as the AL East was in the regular season last year, none of its teams even won a playoff game. And some of them have been waiting a while for significant postseason success.
The Yankees haven’t won a pennant since 2009. You could call that a first-world problem, but it equals the franchise’s longest drought of the live ball era. Baltimore hasn’t been to a World Series since 1983 and has now lost eight straight postseason games.
Tampa Bay and Toronto have each dropped seven in a row.
ARM ISSUES
Several of the division’s top pitchers begin the season with health concerns. Gerrit Cole of the Yankees was shut down with elbow soreness during spring training, Kyle Bradish of the Orioles will miss the start of the season because of an elbow sprain. Gausman has been dealing with shoulder fatigue, and McClanahan had Tommy John surgery in August.
Boston acquired Lucas Giolito this past offseason, and now he’s expected to miss the season following internal brace surgery on his arm.
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