WTOP's awards prediction model went a perfect 4-for-4 in 2015. After all the final numbers were crunched, here's how it sees the 2016 races shaking out.
WASHINGTON — After giving you a look at where our model had the MLB award predicted late in the season, the numbers have been updated to reflect the final totals. Some races have tightened and some have changed altogether. A disclaimer, as always — these models are not perfect, but they are engineered to attempt to approximate what the human voters will do. That said, it was correct in both MVP and Cy Young races last year.
There is no model for either Manager of the Year or Rookie of the Year, so any guesses on those awards would have been pure speculation. It was no surprise to anyone that Corey Seager ran away with the NL ROY (unanimously, no less) considering he made the final three in the MVP vote, but the other three races don’t have entirely predictable results.
Click through to see how the two big races in each league stack up and who the model picks to win.
(AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
AP Photo/Julie Jacobson
A quick note about relievers
It was too hard to factor relief pitchers into the model, so they weren’t. That being said, based on precedent, it’s hard to call the exclusion of either Zach Britton or Andrew Miller from the top three a surprise.
Historical comparisons are thin, but Britton’s season was similar to Dennis Eckersley’s equally preposterous 1990 campaign. Across the board, Britton’s numbers were close, with a comparable ERA, slightly higher strikeout rate and higher walk rate. The bad news for Orioles fans? Eck finished fifth in the Cy Young that year.
In the apples-to-oranges business of comparing starters to relievers, wins above replacement can offer an objective view of how much the innings pitched actually helped a pitcher’s team. According to Baseball Reference, Britton contributed 4.3 WAR, while Miller pitched in 3.9 between his two stops. Those are both very high numbers, but also both rank outside the top 10 in the league. FanGraphs isn’t as kind, rating Miller 21st (2.9) and Britton 36th (2.5).
(AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
AP Photo/Patrick Semansky
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
This is the one award where the model picked each of the top three up for the award, with Verlander holding a modest lead over Rick Porcello and Corey Kluber. The Indians’ ace shined in the postseason and was solid across the board, leading the league in FIP and ranking in the top four in wins, ERA, WHIP, K/9 IP and WAR. Porcello, meanwhile, led the league in wins and K/BB rate, and finished second in WHIP and quality starts.
But Verlander finished incredibly strong. He allowed more than two earned runs just once in his final nine starts, notching double digit strikeouts three times in the final month of the year. The biggest mark against him was his 30 home runs allowed, but he led the league in strikeouts, WHIP, quality starts and WAR. The only place he’s lacking is in wins, but if voters looked past a 13-win resume for Felix Hernandez in 2010, they ought to be able to do the same for Verlander’s 16 victories this year.
(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer
As consistent as the model has generally been, it missed fairly hard here in terms of the field. Lester was a very close fourth, but Hendricks was seventh, below the likes of Noah Syndergaard and the late Jose Fernandez. Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto finished second and third in the model, and should round out the top five in real life. But nobody was close to Scherzer.
The Nats’ ace led the NL in wins, strikeouts, WHIP, K/BB rate, innings pitched, quality starts and WAR. Whether you’re a fan of traditional or advanced stats, Scherzer delivered something for everyone. He had easily the largest margin in raw point total in any of the models and a loss would be stunning. He’s got a shot at winning his second Cy Young in unanimous fashion.
(AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)
AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais
AL MVP: Mookie Betts
It was tough to know how to factor in David Ortiz’s triumphant final season into this race as a designated hitter without a defensive position. But now that we know he finished outside of the top three, Betts’ grasp on the likely MVP crown looks more firm. The model actually had Josh Donaldson a hair above Jose Altuve, but only because the Blue Jays made the playoffs. The only question in this race is Mike Trout.
Betts didn’t actually lead the league in any major categories. He was second in the batting title, as well as in runs scored and WAR, each to Trout. The Angels’ perennial MVP contender also led the league in on-base percentage and had more steals than Betts. But the Boston right fielder finished in the top four in the AL in RBI and extra-base hits, and his team won its division. This will prove to be a true test of whether “most valuable” still means something different from “best.” Could the Donaldson/Altuve disparity prove to be a harbinger of a Trout upset?
(AP Photo/Gail Burton)
AP Photo/Gail Burton
NL MVP: Kris Bryant
Yes, Daniel Murphy has had a spectacular year. And, considering how much he carried the Nats in the early going, there’s an eye-test case to be made beyond the numbers. But he finished second in the model by a fair margin. Of course, Corey Seager — who didn’t scrape the top three in any offensive category, or even the top 10 in OBP, home runs, stolen bases or RBI — made the BBWAA top three. So who knows.
The fact that Anthony Rizzo didn’t register among the top three would seem to dispel the idea that he and Bryant may have split votes, taking them away from one another. And aside from leading the league in WAR and runs scored, Bryant’s defensive prowess and versatility distinguishes himself from Murphy in particular. Bryant rated as the third-best NL defender at third base, while also chipping in at the corner outfield spots. Murphy, meanwhile, was the worst-rated player not named Matt Carpenter at the much less challenging second base position. If there was any question, that reality probably answers it.
(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
WTOP’s awards prediction model went a perfect 4-for-4 in 2015. After all the final numbers were crunched, here’s how it sees the 2016 races shaking out.
