By Steve Prinzivalli
WASHINGTON — All eyes will be on Hurricane Matthew over the next several days as the powerful storm churns through the Caribbean before turning northward toward the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast next week.
As of 11 a.m. Saturday, the potent storm was located more than 300 miles south-southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti, and had top sustained winds of 145 mph. This makes Matthew a potent Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Intensity Scale.
Though the storm’s intensity could fluctuate a bit, Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday. It is marching west at 6 mph but is forecast to turn toward the north Sunday, targeting Jamaica and Haiti where hurricane watches are already posted. This means that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday.
Matthew is expected to slam Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, and the coast of Columbia from the Venezuelan border to Barranquilla with 2 to 4 inches of rain Saturday. Jamaica and southwestern Haiti will get pounded with rain totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated amounts of 25 inches, leading to devastating and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Dangerous swells will continue to produce massive waves and rip currents this weekend along the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America.
As the storm continues its northward jaunt, it will likely pound eastern Cuba on Tuesday and the Bahamas on Wednesday with winds over 100 mph, several inches of drenching rainfall and dangerous surf and battering waves.
The local impact: What computer models show
The big weather wildcard is how Matthew will track next week and if we will feel an impact in the WTOP listening area.
Several long-range computer models at NBC Washington integrate a variety of atmospheric data to produce a forecast solution or “opinion” on the weather.
One such computer model — the American GFS computer model — is the most ominous for us, tracking Hurricane Matthew toward the southeast U.S. coast Friday and then up the mid-Atlantic coast Saturday. If this occurs, we would certainly deal with gusty winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding and storm surge Friday into next weekend.
However, the other computer models paint a more-optimistic solution for our area.
The Canadian computer model from the Canadian Meteorological Centre keeps the storm at least a few hundred miles farther east and is much faster in its movement of Matthew than the GFS solution. This would keep the area virtually unscathed with no significant local impact other than dangerous rip currents at the Delmarva Beaches.
Similarly, the European computer model produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is similar to the Canadian Meteorological Centre in keeping Matthew harmlessly offshore with little effect aside from the rough surf and rip current again.
What to make of the forecast
This is just a sample of the conundrum we meteorologists can face in producing forecasts; differing solutions by our computer data can make it challenging to pinpoint a forecast, especially being nearly a week away from any impact from Matthew.
At this point, we are cautiously mentioning the chance of showers and gusty winds beginning as early as Thursday and continuing into Saturday for the WTOP listening area. Of course, this forecast will be adjusted and fine-tuned as we continue to analyze daily information from our variety of computer models that should become better-aligned in time.
The best advice is to stay tuned to both NBC Washington and WTOP for frequent updates on the forecast track and impact of Hurricane Matthew throughout the next several days and plan accordingly. The good news is that, before any effects from the storm, we can enjoy the return of sunshine and better weather late this weekend and early next week.
