WASHINGTON — With four key cogs headed to free agency this offseason, the Washington Nationals’ window of contention as a World Series front-runner past this season remains uncertain. Two of those pieces are Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmermann, key members of a starting rotation that recently posted a 48-inning scoreless streak. And while the prospect of replacing either or both of them next season, and in the years to come, may be daunting, one prospect in particular seems poised to make the next big splash in D.C.
Lucas Giolito has looked the part of a star ever since he arrived at Nationals Park after being drafted in 2012. At 6 feet, 6 inches and with broad shoulders, he towers over teammates. He had the type of velocity and pure stuff in high school — ticking triple digits on radar guns and breaking off 12-6 hammer curves — usually reserved for far more developed athletes. And he had a preternatural comfort with the spotlight, especially for a kid who had just turned 18 when he was introduced.
Some of his disposition can be explained by his family background. Growing up in the shadow of Hollywood, Giolito’s mother, father and grandfather are all actors. Other members of the family are involved in the industry as writers. So it should be no surprise the 20-year-old Giolito shines with the focus on him.
“Lucas Giolito has been in the spotlight for a long time,” says J.J. Cooper, managing editor for Baseball America, who has known the hurler’s name since high school. “He’s used to that kind of spotlight.”
Giolito is just the latest top Nationals prospect to garner the national hype heaped upon top prospects this day and age. With the prospect resources of publications such as BA, MLB.com’s Pipeline and others online and available to any baseball fan, prospects can achieve a cult following before they ever appear in a big-league uniform. Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper have both walked that road prior to Giolito, blazing a clearer trail through the jungle of obstacles between the draft and The Show.
While he hasn’t specifically leaned on Strasburg or Harper when it comes to the pressure away from the diamond, he has tried to tap into the collective knowledge of those ahead of him in the system when it comes to refining his craft.
“I’ve been able to talk a little bit of pitching with some of the big-league guys,” Giolito says. “Hopefully when I go to big-league camp next spring training I’ll get the chance to pick their brains more about that.”
As for the attention, there’s an odd dichotomy to being a top prospect in the minors. The autograph hounds may be a little more aggressive around you, but most fans in the Carolina League don’t know the bonus babies from the organizational depth. You get to live in day-to-day obscurity, even while your photo appears on the cover of national publications.
“The biggest thing is you try not to read about yourself too much,” Giolito says. “Because a lot of people will speculate on hype, speculate on future stuff versus what you have now. The point of being here in the minor leagues is to develop your stuff and prepare yourself to pitch at the big-league level.”
Cooper doesn’t think there’s much speculation necessary.
“It’s been a long time since anyone needed to project on Lucas Giolito,” he says. “Both his fastball and curveball are very close to — if not at the top of — the scale on the scouting scale.”
A cursory glance at Giolito’s 3-4 record and 3.08 ERA this season may not impress the amateur scouts among us. But his peripheral numbers are eye-popping once again. In 52.2 innings pitched, he’s struck out 66 while walking just 14, better than a 4:1 ratio. And while opponents have hit .251 against Giolito — up from his .203 career average prior to this year — he hasn’t given up a single home run.
He’s struck out eight or more four times, and allowed more than two walks just once. As for why he’s struggled at times, he believes the competition just hasn’t allowed him to get away with location errors.
“Guys take advantage of mistakes more here,” Giolito says of Advanced A ball. “It’s like 95 (miles per hour) is the new 90. If, back in the day, throwing 90 made you a pretty hard thrower, now it’s ‘Whatever, no one cares.’”
If there’s any reason to be concerned about this year’s still-small sample, it’s that righties seem to be hitting Giolito notably harder than in the past. But he’s allowed just 12 extra-base hits all season, so those numbers aren’t nearly as alarming as they might otherwise be. Cooper echoes Giolito’s assessment of what the difference has been, and what he needs to improve to progress.
“I don’t think there’s anything that I would look at what he’s done this year and say, ‘That’s a problem,’” Cooper says. “It’s just continued maturation, continued refinement of control. The ability to locate — not just throw strikes, to throw to the area that you want to throw them — is the last thing to come along.”
Blessed with every physical gift he could ask for, Giolito is also striving to get mentally stronger. While he’s faced the adversity of a Tommy John surgery and rehabilitation process, he has rarely struggled on the mound before this year. But he seems to have an awareness of what’s gone wrong, and what needs to come next.
“My start (a few) weeks ago, I was kind of letting emotions affect me,” he recalls. “I was giving up some — I guess you could say cheap hits, like broken bats, swinging bunts. And those would kind of get to me, and I would lose control. Then I’d leave one up, and a guy would hit a double.”
Giolito describes refining his psychological approach the same way he is doing with his physical one.
“It’s just a process of trying to get as close to perfection on the physical side, working on mechanics, repeating your pitches,” he says. “And on the mental side, having that mentality that you’re going to be able to make pitches and get everyone out.”
He nearly got everyone out Wednesday night, throwing seven no-hit innings while walking just one and fanning seven. Thanks to performances like that, you likely won’t be able to see Giolito in Woodbridge for too much longer. But it shouldn’t be long before you can see him in Washington.
“If [the Nationals] needed a guy to get an out in the seventh inning right now, he could do that,” says Cooper. “He has the stuff to do that.”
More realistically, Giolito could be a part of the mix as soon as next season, and if all goes according to plan, be a stalwart in the rotation in 2017 and beyond.
